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Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and has wide-ranging influence on the Earth system, but few long-term observational datasets of lightning occurrence and distribution are currently freely available. Here, we analyze global lightning activity over the second decade of the 21st century using a new global, high-resolution gridded time series and climatology of lightning stroke density based on raw data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). While the total number of strokes detected increases from 2010–2014, an adjustment for detection efficiency reduces this artificial trend. The global distribution of lightning shows the well-known pattern of greatest density over the three tropical terrestrial regions of the Americas, Africa, and the Maritime Continent, but we also noticed substantial temporal variability over the 11 years of record, with more lightning in the tropics from 2012–2015 and increasing lightning in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from 2016–2020. Although the total number of strokes detected globally was constant, mean stroke power decreases significantly from a peak in 2013 to the lowest levels on record in 2020. Evaluation with independent observational networks shows that while the WWLLN does not capture peak seasonal lightning densities, it does represent the majority of powerful lightning strokes. The resulting gridded lightning dataset (Kaplan and Lau, 2021a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4774528) is freely available and will be useful for a range of studies in climate, Earth system, and natural hazards research, including direct use as input data to models and as evaluation data for independent simulations of lightning occurrence.
Jed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and time series. Earth System Science Data 2021, 13, 3219 -3237.
AMA StyleJed O. Kaplan, Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and time series. Earth System Science Data. 2021; 13 (7):3219-3237.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. 2021. "The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and time series." Earth System Science Data 13, no. 7: 3219-3237.
Earth system models show wide disagreement when simulating the climate of the continents at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This disagreement may be related to a variety of factors, including model resolution and an incomplete representation of Earth system processes. To assess the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks on the climate of Europe, we performed an iterative asynchronously coupled land–atmosphere modelling experiment that combined a global climate model, a regional climate model, and a dynamic vegetation model. The regional climate and land cover models were run at high (18 km) resolution over a domain covering the ice-free regions of Europe. Asynchronous coupling between the regional climate model and the vegetation model showed that the land–atmosphere coupling achieves quasi-equilibrium after four iterations. Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. To assess the importance of land cover on the LGM climate of Europe, we performed a sensitivity simulation where we used LGM climate but present-day (PD) land cover. Using LGM climate and land cover leads to colder and drier summer conditions around the Alps and warmer and drier climate in southeastern Europe compared to LGM climate determined by PD land cover. This finding demonstrates that LGM land cover plays an important role in regulating the regional climate. Therefore, realistic glacial land cover estimates are needed to accurately simulate regional glacial climate states in areas with interplays between complex topography, large ice sheets, and diverse land cover, as observed in Europe.
Patricio Velasquez; Jed O. Kaplan; Martina Messmer; Patrick Ludwig; Christoph C. Raible. The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe. Climate of the Past 2021, 17, 1161 -1180.
AMA StylePatricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph C. Raible. The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe. Climate of the Past. 2021; 17 (3):1161-1180.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricio Velasquez; Jed O. Kaplan; Martina Messmer; Patrick Ludwig; Christoph C. Raible. 2021. "The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe." Climate of the Past 17, no. 3: 1161-1180.
It has been suggested that Iberian arrival in the Americas in 1492 and subsequent dramatic depopulation led to forest regrowth that had global impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperatures. Despite tropical forests representing the most important terrestrial carbon stock globally, systematic examination of historical afforestation in these habitats in the Neotropics is lacking. Additionally, there has been no assessment of similar depopulation–afforestation dynamics in other parts of the global tropics that were incorporated into the Spanish Empire. Here, we compile and semi-quantitatively analyse pollen records from the regions claimed by the Spanish in the Atlantic and Pacific to provide pan-tropical insights into European colonial impacts on forest dynamics. Our results suggest that periods of afforestation over the past millennium varied across space and time and depended on social, economic and biogeographic contexts. We argue that this reveals the unequal and divergent origins of the Anthropocene as a socio-political and biophysical process, highlighting the need for higher-resolution, targeted analyses to fully elucidate pre-colonial and colonial era human–tropical landscape interactions.
Rebecca Hamilton; Jesse Wolfhagen; Noel Amano; Nicole Boivin; David Max Findley; José Iriarte; Jed O. Kaplan; Janelle Stevenson; Patrick Roberts. Non-uniform tropical forest responses to the ‘Columbian Exchange’ in the Neotropics and Asia-Pacific. Nature Ecology & Evolution 2021, 5, 1174 -1184.
AMA StyleRebecca Hamilton, Jesse Wolfhagen, Noel Amano, Nicole Boivin, David Max Findley, José Iriarte, Jed O. Kaplan, Janelle Stevenson, Patrick Roberts. Non-uniform tropical forest responses to the ‘Columbian Exchange’ in the Neotropics and Asia-Pacific. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2021; 5 (8):1174-1184.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRebecca Hamilton; Jesse Wolfhagen; Noel Amano; Nicole Boivin; David Max Findley; José Iriarte; Jed O. Kaplan; Janelle Stevenson; Patrick Roberts. 2021. "Non-uniform tropical forest responses to the ‘Columbian Exchange’ in the Neotropics and Asia-Pacific." Nature Ecology & Evolution 5, no. 8: 1174-1184.
Fire plays a pivotal role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and the chemical composition of the atmosphere and thus influences Earth’s climate. The trend and magnitude of fire activity over the past few centuries are controversial, which hinders understanding of preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative forcing. Here, we present evidence from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core, suggesting that historical fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) exceeded present-day levels. To understand this observation, we use a global fire model to show that overall SH fire emissions could have declined by 30% over the 20th century, possibly because of the rapid expansion of land use for agriculture and animal production in middle to high latitudes. Radiative forcing calculations suggest that the decreasing trend in SH fire emissions over the past century largely compensates for the cooling effect of increasing aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources.
Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan; Loretta J. Mickley; Yang Li; Nathan J. Chellman; Monica M. Arienzo; John K. Kodros; Jeffrey R. Pierce; Michael Sigl; Johannes Freitag; Robert Mulvaney; Mark A. J. Curran; Joseph R. McConnell. Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Science Advances 2021, 7, eabc1379 .
AMA StylePengfei Liu, Jed O. Kaplan, Loretta J. Mickley, Yang Li, Nathan J. Chellman, Monica M. Arienzo, John K. Kodros, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Michael Sigl, Johannes Freitag, Robert Mulvaney, Mark A. J. Curran, Joseph R. McConnell. Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Science Advances. 2021; 7 (22):eabc1379.
Chicago/Turabian StylePengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan; Loretta J. Mickley; Yang Li; Nathan J. Chellman; Monica M. Arienzo; John K. Kodros; Jeffrey R. Pierce; Michael Sigl; Johannes Freitag; Robert Mulvaney; Mark A. J. Curran; Joseph R. McConnell. 2021. "Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere." Science Advances 7, no. 22: eabc1379.
Archaeological and paleoecological evidence shows that by 10,000 BCE, all human societies employed varying degrees of ecologically transformative land use practices, including burning, hunting, species propagation, domestication, cultivation, and others that have left long-term legacies across the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, a lingering paradigm among natural scientists, conservationists, and policymakers is that human transformation of terrestrial nature is mostly recent and inherently destructive. Here, we use the most up-to-date, spatially explicit global reconstruction of historical human populations and land use to show that this paradigm is likely wrong. Even 12,000 y ago, nearly three quarters of Earth’s land was inhabited and therefore shaped by human societies, including more than 95% of temperate and 90% of tropical woodlands. Lands now characterized as “natural,” “intact,” and “wild” generally exhibit long histories of use, as do protected areas and Indigenous lands, and current global patterns of vertebrate species richness and key biodiversity areas are more strongly associated with past patterns of land use than with present ones in regional landscapes now characterized as natural. The current biodiversity crisis can seldom be explained by the loss of uninhabited wildlands, resulting instead from the appropriation, colonization, and intensifying use of the biodiverse cultural landscapes long shaped and sustained by prior societies. Recognizing this deep cultural connection with biodiversity will therefore be essential to resolve the crisis.
Erle C. Ellis; Nicolas Gauthier; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Rebecca Bliege Bird; Nicole Boivin; Sandra Díaz; Dorian Q. Fuller; Jacquelyn L. Gill; Jed O. Kaplan; Naomi Kingston; Harvey Locke; Crystal N. H. McMichael; Darren Ranco; Torben C. Rick; M. Rebecca Shaw; Lucas Stephens; Jens-Christian Svenning; James E. M. Watson. People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2021, 118, 1 .
AMA StyleErle C. Ellis, Nicolas Gauthier, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Rebecca Bliege Bird, Nicole Boivin, Sandra Díaz, Dorian Q. Fuller, Jacquelyn L. Gill, Jed O. Kaplan, Naomi Kingston, Harvey Locke, Crystal N. H. McMichael, Darren Ranco, Torben C. Rick, M. Rebecca Shaw, Lucas Stephens, Jens-Christian Svenning, James E. M. Watson. People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2021; 118 (17):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleErle C. Ellis; Nicolas Gauthier; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Rebecca Bliege Bird; Nicole Boivin; Sandra Díaz; Dorian Q. Fuller; Jacquelyn L. Gill; Jed O. Kaplan; Naomi Kingston; Harvey Locke; Crystal N. H. McMichael; Darren Ranco; Torben C. Rick; M. Rebecca Shaw; Lucas Stephens; Jens-Christian Svenning; James E. M. Watson. 2021. "People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 17: 1.
With the development of low-cost, lightweight, integrated thermal infrared-multispectral cameras, unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have recently become a flexible complement to eddy covariance (EC) station methods for mapping surface energy fluxes of vegetated areas. These sensors facilitate the measurement of several site characteristics in one flight (e.g., radiometric temperature, vegetation indices, vegetation structure), which can be used alongside in-situ meteorology data to provide spatially-distributed estimates of energy fluxes at very high resolution. Here we test one such system (MicaSense Altum) integrated into an off-the-shelf long-range vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) unmanned aerial vehicle, and apply and evaluate our method by comparing flux estimates with EC-derived data, with specific and novel focus on heterogeneous vegetation communities at three different sites in Germany. Firstly, we present an empirical method for calibrating airborne radiometric temperature in standard units (K) using the Altum multispectral and thermal infrared instrument. Then we provide detailed methods using the two-source energy balance model (TSEB) for mapping net radiation (Rn), sensible (H), latent (LE) and ground (G) heat fluxes at <0.82 m resolution, with root mean square errors (RMSE) less than 45, 37, 39, 52 W m−2 respectively. Converting to radiometric temperature using our empirical method resulted in a 19% reduction in RMSE across all fluxes compared to the standard conversion equation provided by the manufacturer. Our results show the potential of this UAS for mapping energy fluxes at high resolution over large areas in different conditions, but also highlight the need for further surveys of different vegetation types and land uses.
Jake Simpson; Fenner Holman; Hector Nieto; Ingo Voelksch; Matthias Mauder; Janina Klatt; Peter Fiener; Jed Kaplan. High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Energy Flux Mapping of Different Land Covers Using an Off-the-Shelf Unmanned Aerial System. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 1286 .
AMA StyleJake Simpson, Fenner Holman, Hector Nieto, Ingo Voelksch, Matthias Mauder, Janina Klatt, Peter Fiener, Jed Kaplan. High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Energy Flux Mapping of Different Land Covers Using an Off-the-Shelf Unmanned Aerial System. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (7):1286.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJake Simpson; Fenner Holman; Hector Nieto; Ingo Voelksch; Matthias Mauder; Janina Klatt; Peter Fiener; Jed Kaplan. 2021. "High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Energy Flux Mapping of Different Land Covers Using an Off-the-Shelf Unmanned Aerial System." Remote Sensing 13, no. 7: 1286.
Lightning is one of the most important atmospheric phenomena and has wide ranging influence on the Earth System, but few long-term observational datasets of lightning occurrence and distribution are currently freely available. Here we analyze global lightning activity over the second decade of the 21st century using a new global, high-resolution gridded timeseries and climatology of lightning stroke density based on raw data from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). While the total number of strokes detected increases from 2010–2014, an adjustment for detection efficiency reduces this artificial trend. The global distribution of lightning shows the well-known pattern of greatest density over the three tropical terrestrial regions of the Americas, Africa, and the Maritime Continent, but we also noticed substantial temporal variability over the 11 years of record, with more lightning in the tropics from 2012–2015 and increasing lightning in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from 2016–2020. Although the total number of strokes detected globally was constant, mean stroke power decreases significantly from a peak in 2013 to the lowest levels on record in 2020. Evaluation with independent observational networks shows that while the WWLLN does not capture peak seasonal lightning densities, it does represent the majority of powerful lightning strokes. The resulting gridded lightning dataset (Kaplan and Lau, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.904253) is freely available and will be useful for a range of studies in climate, earth system, and natural hazards research, including direct use as input data to models and as evaluation data for independent simulations of lightning occurrence.
Jed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries. 2021, 2021, 1 -25.
AMA StyleJed O. Kaplan, Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries. . 2021; 2021 ():1-25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. 2021. "The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries." 2021, no. : 1-25.
Jed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. Supplementary material to "The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries". 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleJed O. Kaplan, Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. Supplementary material to "The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries". . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJed O. Kaplan; Katie Hong-Kiu Lau. 2021. "Supplementary material to "The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and timeseries"." , no. : 1.
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. The consequences of such a shift for dust mobilization and dust concentration are unknown, but they could have large implications for human health, given the connections between dust inhalation and disease. Here we link a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of future changes in three factors – climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use practices – on vegetation in this region. From there, we investigate the impacts of changing vegetation on dust mobilization and assess the net effect on fine dust concentration (defined as dust particles less than 2.5 µm in diameter) on surface air quality. We find that surface temperatures in southwestern North America warm by 3.3 K and precipitation decreases by nearly 40 % by 2100 in the most extreme warming scenario (RCP8.5; RCP refers to Representative Concentration Pathway) in spring (March, April, and May) – the season of greatest dust emissions. Such conditions reveal an increased vulnerability to drought and vegetation die-off. Enhanced CO2 fertilization, however, offsets the modeled effects of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit on vegetation in some areas of the southwestern US. Considering all three factors in the RCP8.5 scenario, dust concentrations decrease over Arizona and New Mexico in spring by the late 21st century due to greater CO2 fertilization and a more densely vegetated environment, which inhibits dust mobilization. Along Mexico's northern border, dust concentrations increase as a result of the intensification of anthropogenic land use. In contrast, when CO2 fertilization is not considered in the RCP8.5 scenario, vegetation cover declines significantly across most of the domain by 2100, leading to widespread increases in fine dust concentrations, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ∼ 2.0 µg m−3 relative to the present day) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ∼ 2.5 µg m−3). Our results have implications for human health, especially for the health of the indigenous people who make up a large percentage of the population in this region.
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2021, 21, 57 -68.
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Jed O. Kaplan. Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2021; 21 (1):57-68.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. 2021. "Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 1: 57-68.
Earth system models show wide disagreement when simulating the climate of the continents at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This disagreement may be related to a variety of factors, including model resolution and an incomplete representation of Earth system processes. To assess the importance of resolution and land-atmosphere feedbacks on the climate of Europe, we performed an iterative, asynchronously coupled land-atmosphere modelling experiment that combined a global climate model, a regional climate model, and a dynamic vegetation model. The regional climate and land cover models were run at high (18 km) resolution over a domain covering the ice-free regions of Europe. Asynchronous coupling between the regional climate model and the vegetation model showed that the land-atmosphere coupling achieves quasi-equilibrium after four iterations. Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. To assess the importance of land cover on the LGM climate of Europe, we performed a sensitivity test where we used LGM climate but present day land cover as boundary conditions. These simulations show that the LGM land-atmosphere feedback leads to colder and drier conditions around the Alps and a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Europe. Even in mid-latitude Europe where the land-atmosphere coupling strength is generally weak, and under glacial conditions with a southward displacement of the storm track and increased importance of the Atlantic, regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Patricio Velasquez; Jed O. Kaplan; Martina Messmer; Patrick Ludwig; Christoph C. Raible. The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe. 2020, 2020, 1 -26.
AMA StylePatricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph C. Raible. The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe. . 2020; 2020 ():1-26.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricio Velasquez; Jed O. Kaplan; Martina Messmer; Patrick Ludwig; Christoph C. Raible. 2020. "The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe." 2020, no. : 1-26.
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.
George C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed O. Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamás Krisztin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 5425 -5464.
AMA StyleGeorge C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Xin Zhang. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (11):5425-5464.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed O. Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamás Krisztin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. 2020. "Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 11: 5425-5464.
Tropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial era were larger than in the present day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing by up to 34 % (0.38 to 0.25 W m−2). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as the co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2–0.6 W m−2), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.
Matthew J. Rowlinson; Alexandru Rap; Douglas S. Hamilton; Richard J. Pope; Stijn Hantson; Steve R. Arnold; Jed O. Kaplan; Almut Arneth; Martyn P. Chipperfield; Piers M. Forster; Lars Nieradzik. Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2020, 20, 10937 -10951.
AMA StyleMatthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, Lars Nieradzik. Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2020; 20 (18):10937-10951.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthew J. Rowlinson; Alexandru Rap; Douglas S. Hamilton; Richard J. Pope; Stijn Hantson; Steve R. Arnold; Jed O. Kaplan; Almut Arneth; Martyn P. Chipperfield; Piers M. Forster; Lars Nieradzik. 2020. "Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 18: 10937-10951.
Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states.
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2020, 20, 8827 -8838.
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, Jed O. Kaplan. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2020; 20 (14):8827-8838.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. 2020. "Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 14: 8827-8838.
Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. However, the projected dust trends under climate change are sometimes contradictory. Here we link a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of future changes in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use practices on dust mobilization, and to investigate the consequences for surface air quality. Considering all factors in the most extreme future warming scenario, we find decreasing trends of fine dust emissions over Arizona and New Mexico but increasing emissions along Mexico's northern border in the late-21st century during springtime, the season of maximum dust emissions. These trends result from more densely vegetated environments in the arid southwestern U.S. under future climate, but sparser vegetation in northern Mexico. The two main drivers of dust trends in this region – CO2 fertilization and land use intensification – play opposing roles, with the first driver enhancing vegetation and thus decreasing dust in the southwestern U.S. and the second driver increasing dust in northern Mexico. In the absence of CO2 fertilization, the RCP8.5 scenario places an upper bound on increases in dust, with elevated concentrations widespread over the southwestern North America by 2100 in spring, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ~2.0 µg m−3) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ~2.5 µg m−3).
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality. 2020, 2020, 1 -25.
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Jed O. Kaplan. Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality. . 2020; 2020 ():1-25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. 2020. "Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality." 2020, no. : 1-25.
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. Supplementary material to "Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality". 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Jed O. Kaplan. Supplementary material to "Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality". . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Jed O. Kaplan. 2020. "Supplementary material to "Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality"." , no. : 1.
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.
George C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamas Kristzin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. 2020, 2020, 1 -65.
AMA StyleGeorge C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamas Kristzin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Xin Zhang. Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. . 2020; 2020 ():1-65.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge C. Hurtt; Louise Chini; Ritvik Sahajpal; Steve Frolking; Benjamin L. Bodirsky; Katherine Calvin; Jonathan C. Doelman; Justin Fisk; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Tomoko Hasegawa; Peter Havlik; Andreas Heinimann; Florian Humpenöder; Johan Jungclaus; Jed Kaplan; Jennifer Kennedy; Tamas Kristzin; David Lawrence; Peter Lawrence; Lei Ma; Ole Mertz; Julia Pongratz; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Poulter; Keywan Riahi; Elena Shevliakova; Elke Stehfest; Peter Thornton; Francesco N. Tubiello; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Xin Zhang. 2020. "Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6." 2020, no. : 1-65.
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.
Sandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 805 -824.
AMA StyleSandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, Kathleen D. Morrison. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (2):805-824.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSandy P. Harrison; Marie-José Gaillard; Benjamin D. Stocker; Marc Vander Linden; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Oliver Boles; Pascale Braconnot; Andria Dawson; Etienne Fluet-Chouinard; Jed O. Kaplan; Thomas Kastner; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Erick Robinson; Nicki J. Whitehouse; Marco Madella; Kathleen D. Morrison. 2020. "Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 2: 805-824.
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. Supplementary material to "Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States". 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, Jed O. Kaplan. Supplementary material to "Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States". . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. 2020. "Supplementary material to "Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States"." , no. : 1.
Almost US$ 3bn per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the Western United States with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in National Forests and Parks of the Western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ~ 53 % by the late-21st century during the fire season. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows large, northward shifts in dry matter burned, leading to enhanced lightning-caused fire activity especially over forests in the northern states.
Yang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States. 2020, 2020, 1 -26.
AMA StyleYang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, Jed O. Kaplan. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States. . 2020; 2020 ():1-26.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang Li; Loretta J. Mickley; Pengfei Liu; Jed O. Kaplan. 2020. "Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the forests of the Western United States." 2020, no. : 1-26.
Tropospheric ozone concentrations are sensitive to natural emissions of precursor compounds. In contrast to existing assumptions, recent evidence indicates that terrestrial vegetation emissions in the pre-industrial were larger than in the present-day. We use a chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to show that revised inventories of pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions lead to an increase in simulated pre-industrial ozone concentrations, decreasing the estimated pre-industrial to present-day tropospheric ozone radiative forcing of up to 34 % (0.38 W m-2 to 0.25 W m-2). We find that this change is sensitive to employing biomass burning and biogenic emissions inventories based on matching vegetation patterns, as co-location of emission sources enhances the effect on ozone formation. Our forcing estimates are at the lower end of existing uncertainty range estimates (0.2–0.6 W m-22), without accounting for other sources of uncertainty. Thus, future work should focus on reassessing the uncertainty range of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing.
Matthew J. Rowlinson; Alexandru Rap; Douglas S. Hamilton; Richard J. Pope; Stijn Hantson; Stephen R. Arnold; Jed O. Kaplan; Almut Arneth; Martyn P. Chipperfield; Piers M. Forster; Lars Nieradzik. Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions. 2020, 2020, 1 -23.
AMA StyleMatthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Stephen R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, Lars Nieradzik. Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions. . 2020; 2020 ():1-23.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthew J. Rowlinson; Alexandru Rap; Douglas S. Hamilton; Richard J. Pope; Stijn Hantson; Stephen R. Arnold; Jed O. Kaplan; Almut Arneth; Martyn P. Chipperfield; Piers M. Forster; Lars Nieradzik. 2020. "Tropospheric ozone radiative forcing uncertainty due to pre-industrial fire and biogenic emissions." 2020, no. : 1-23.