The importance of spatial clusters, or “hotspots,” in infectious disease epidemiology has been increasingly recognized, and targeting hotspots is often seen as an important component of disease-control strategies. However, the precise meaning of “hotspot” varies widely in current research and policy documents. Hotspots have been variously described as areas of elevated incidence or prevalence, higher transmission efficiency or risk, or higher probability of disease emergence. This ambiguity has led to confusion and may result in mistaken inferences regarding the best way to target interventions. We surveyed the literature on epidemiologic hotspots, examining the multitude of ways in which the term is used; and highlight the difference in the geographic scale of hotspots and the properties they are supposed to have. In response to the diversity in the term's usage, we advocate the use of more precise terms, such as “burden hotspot,” “transmission hotspot,” and “emergence hotspot,” as well as explicit specification of the spatiotemporal scale of interest. Increased precision in terminology is needed to ensure clear and effective policies for disease control.

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) have been disproportionately affected by HIV-1 since the beginning of the AIDS pandemic, particularly in the USA and Europe. Compared to men who have sex with women (MSW), MSM have a distinct fecal microbiome regardless of HIV-1 infection. However, it is unclear whether the MSM-associated gut microbiome affects the susceptibility and progression of HIV-1 infection. We studied fecal microbiome profiles, short-chain fatty acids, and blood plasma inflammatory cytokines of 109 HIV-1 seroconverters (SC) from the early, 1984–1985 phase of the HIV-1 pandemic in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) before and after HIV-1 infection compared to 156 HIV-1-negative MACS MSM (negative controls [NC]). Results: We found that family Succinivibrionaceae, S24-7, Mogibacteriaceae, Coriobacteriaceae, and Erysipelotrichaceae were significantly higher (p<0.05), whereas Odoribacteraceae, Verucomicrobiaceae, Bacteroidaceae, Barnesiellaceae, and Rikenellaceae were significantly lower (p<0.05), in SC before HIV-1 infection compared to NC. At the species level, Prevotella stercorea, Eubacterium biforme, and Collinsella aerofaciens were significantly higher (p<0.05), and Eubacterium dolichum, Desulfovibrio D168, Alistipes onderdonkii, Ruminococcus torques, Bacteroides fragilis, Bacteroides caccae, Alistipes putredinis, Akkermansia muciniphila, Bacteroides uniformis, and Bacteroides ovatus were significantly lower (p<0.05) in SC before HIV-1 infection compared to NC. After HIV-1 infection, family Prevotellaceae and Victivallaceae and species Bacteroides fragilis and Eubacterium cylindroides were significantly higher (p<0.05) in SC who developed AIDS within 5 years compared to the SC who were AIDS free for more than 10 years without antiretroviral therapy (ART). In addition, family Victivallaceae and species Prevotella stercorea, Coprococcus eutactus, and Butyrivibrio crossotus were significantly higher (p<0.05) and Gemmiger formicilis and Blautia obeum were significantly lower (p<0.05) after HIV-1 infection in SC who developed AIDS within 5–10 years compared to the SC who were AIDS-free for more than 10 years without ART. Furthermore, plasma inflammatory cytokine levels of sCD14, sCD163, interleukin 6, and lipopolysaccharide binding protein were significantly higher in SC with p<0.05 before HIV-1 infection compared to NC. Conclusions: Our results suggest that pathogenic changes in the gut microbiome were present in MSM several months prior to infection with HIV-1 in the early phase of the AIDS pandemic in the USA. This was associated with increased inflammatory biomarkers in the blood and risk for development of AIDS.

Cholera causes an estimated 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, with the majority of burden reported in sub-Saharan Africa. In May 2018, the World Health Assembly committed to reducing worldwide cholera deaths by 90% by 2030. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) plays a key role in reducing the near-term risk of cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations and developing cholera control plans that maximize the chances of success. We compared the projected impacts of vaccination campaigns across sub-Saharan Africa from 2018 through 2030 when targeting geographically according to historical cholera burden and risk factors. We assessed the number of averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years and the cost-effectiveness of these campaigns with models that accounted for direct and indirect vaccine effects and population projections over time. Under current vaccine supply projections, an approach optimized to targeting by historical burden is projected to avert 828,971 (95% CI 803,370–859,980) cases (equivalent to 34.0% of projected cases; 95% CI 33.2%–34.8%). An approach that balances logistical feasibility with targeting historical burden is projected to avert 617,424 (95% CI 599,150–643,891) cases. In contrast, approaches optimized for targeting locations with limited access to water and sanitation are projected to avert 273,939 (95% CI 270,319–277,002) and 109,817 (95% CI 103,735–114,110) cases, respectively. We find that the most logistically feasible targeting strategy costs US$1,843 (95% CI 1,328–14,312) per DALY averted during this period and that effective geographic targeting of OCV campaigns can have a greater impact on cost-effectiveness than improvements to vaccine efficacy and moderate increases in coverage. Although our modeling approach does not project annual changes in baseline cholera risk or directly incorporate immunity from natural cholera infection, our estimates of the relative performance of different vaccination strategies should be robust to these factors. Our study suggests that geographic targeting substantially improves the cost-effectiveness and impact of oral cholera vaccination campaigns. Districts with the poorest access to improved water and sanitation are not the same as districts with the greatest historical cholera incidence. While OCV campaigns can improve cholera control in the near term, without rapid progress in developing water and sanitation services or dramatic increases in OCV supply, our results suggest that vaccine use alone is unlikely to allow us to achieve the 2030 goal.

Semen exosomes (SE) from HIV-uninfected (HIV−) individuals potently inhibit HIV infection in vitro. However, morphological changes in target cells in response to SE have not been characterized or have the effect of HIV infection or the use of illicit substances, specifically psychostimulants, on the function of SE been elucidated. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of HIV infection, psychostimulant use, and both together on SE-mediated regulation of monocyte function. SE were isolated from semen of HIV− and HIV-infected (HIV+) antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive participants who reported either using or not using psychostimulants. The SE samples were thus designated as HIV−Drug−, HIV−Drug+, HIV+Drug−, and HIV+Drug+. U937 monocytes were treated with different SEs and analyzed for changes in transcriptome, morphometrics, actin reorganization, adhesion, and chemotaxis. HIV infection and/or use of psychostimulants had minimal effects on the physical characteristics of SE. However, different SEs had diverse effects on the messenger RNA signature of monocytes and rapidly induced monocyte adhesion and spreading. SE from HIV infected or psychostimulants users but not HIV−Drug− SE, stimulated actin reorganization, leading to the formation of filopodia-like structures and membrane ruffles containing F-actin and vinculin that in some cases were colocalized. All SE stimulated monocyte chemotaxis to HIV secretome and activated the secretion of matrix metalloproteinases, a phenotype exacerbated by HIV infection and psychostimulant use. SE-directed regulation of cellular morphometrics and chemotaxis depended on the donor clinical status because HIV infection and psychostimulant use altered SE function. Although our inclusion criteria specified the use of cocaine, humans are poly-drug and alcohol users and our study participants used psychostimulants, marijuana, opiates, and alcohol. Thus, it is possible that the effects observed in this study may be due to one of these other substances or due to an interaction between different substances.

Long COVID (LongC) is associated with a myriad of symptoms including cognitive impairment. We reported at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic that neuronal-enriched or L1CAM+ extracellular vesicles (nEVs) from people with LongC contained proteins associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Since that time, a subset of people with prior COVID infection continue to report neurological problems more than three months after infection. Blood markers to better characterize LongC are elusive. To further identify neuronal proteins associated with LongC, we maximized the number of nEVs isolated from plasma by developing a hybrid EV Microfluidic Affinity Purification (EV-MAP) technique. We isolated nEVs from people with LongC and neurological complaints, AD, and HIV infection with mild cognitive impairment. Using the OLINK platform that assesses 384 neurological proteins, we identified 11 significant proteins increased in LongC and 2 decreased (BST1, GGT1). Fourteen proteins were increased in AD and forty proteins associated with HIV cognitive impairment were elevated with one decreased (IVD). One common protein (BST1) was decreased in LongC and increased in HIV. Six proteins (MIF, ENO1, MESD, NUDT5, TNFSF14 and FYB1) were expressed in both LongC and AD and no proteins were common to HIV and AD. This study begins to identify differences and similarities in the neuronal response to LongC versus AD and HIV infection.