Multiple Sclerosis is more common in women than men and females have more relapses than men. In a large international cohort we have evaluated the effect of gender on disability accumulation and disease progression to determine if male MS patients have a worse clinical outcome than females. Using the MSBase Registry, data from 15,826 MS patients from 25 countries was analysed. Changes in the severity of MS (EDSS) were compared between sexes using a repeated measures analysis in generalised linear mixed models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to test for sex difference in the time to reach EDSS milestones 3 and 6 and the secondary progressive MS. In relapse onset MS patients (n = 14,453), males progressed significantly faster in their EDSS than females (0.133 vs 0.112 per year, P<0.001,). Females had a reduced risk of secondary progressive MS (HR (95% CI) = 0.77 (0.67 to 0.90) P = 0.001). In primary progressive MS (n = 1,373), there was a significant increase in EDSS over time in males and females (P<0.001) but there was no significant sex effect on the annualized rate of EDSS change. Among registrants of MSBase, male relapse-onset patients accumulate disability faster than female patients. In contrast, the rate of disability accumulation between male and female patients with primary progressive MS is similar.

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48 362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10⁻¹²). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10⁻¹²). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.

Timely initiation of effective therapy is crucial for preventing disability in multiple sclerosis; however, treatment response varies greatly among patients. Comprehensive predictive models of individual treatment response are lacking. Our aims were: (i) to develop predictive algorithms for individual treatment response using demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors in patients with multiple sclerosis; and (ii) to evaluate accuracy, and internal and external validity of these algorithms. This study evaluated 27 demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors of individual response to seven disease-modifying therapies in MSBase, a large global cohort study. Treatment response was analysed separately for disability progression, disability regression, relapse frequency, conversion to secondary progressive disease, change in the cumulative disease burden, and the probability of treatment discontinuation. Multivariable survival and generalized linear models were used, together with the principal component analysis to reduce model dimensionality and prevent overparameterization. Accuracy of the individual prediction was tested and its internal validity was evaluated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort. External validity was evaluated in a geographically distinct cohort, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. In the training cohort (n = 8513), the most prominent modifiers of treatment response comprised age, disease duration, disease course, previous relapse activity, disability, predominant relapse phenotype and previous therapy. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the associations varied among therapies and disease outcomes. Higher probability of disability progression during treatment with injectable therapies was predominantly associated with a greater disability at treatment start and the previous therapy. For fingolimod, natalizumab or mitoxantrone, it was mainly associated with lower pretreatment relapse activity. The probability of disability regression was predominantly associated with pre-baseline disability, therapy and relapse activity. Relapse incidence was associated with pretreatment relapse activity, age and relapsing disease course, with the strength of these associations varying among therapies. Accuracy and internal validity (n = 1196) of the resulting predictive models was high (>80%) for relapse incidence during the first year and for disability outcomes, moderate for relapse incidence in Years 2–4 and for the change in the cumulative disease burden, and low for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. External validation showed similar results, demonstrating high external validity for disability and relapse outcomes, moderate external validity for cumulative disease burden and low external validity for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. We conclude that demographic, clinical and paraclinical information helps predict individual response to disease-modifying therapies at the time of their commencement.

Background: The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) shows considerable variability all over the world. According to Kurtzke, Iran is considered to have a low prevalence. Objective: To estimate the period prevalence and risk factors of MS in Isfahan, central part of Iran. Methods: A cross-sectional case register study conducted between 2004 and 2005. In the province of Isfahan, Iran, all patients known to have definite MS during 2004 and 2005, being alive and resident within Isfahan as well as being a member of the Isfahan MS Association were included in the study. Demographic and case-related information was recorded. 1,391 definite MS patients (308 men and 1,083 women) from the Isfahan MS Association, Iran, have been identified. The disease was confirmed using clinical information and MRI findings by a neurologist and radiologist. The patients were evaluated by interview and a questionnaire. Population data were obtained from the year 1999 Iran Census. The mean (SD) age of the participants was 32.5 (9.3) years with a mean (SD) duration of the disease of 6.4 (5.1) years for men and 6.9 (5.3) years for women. Results: The period prevalence of MS was 35.5 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 33.6–37.3] in a population of 3,923,255, with a higher rate in women than men [54.5 (95% CI: 51.1–57.8) for women and 14.9 (95% CI: 13.3–16.6) for men]. The female/male ratio was 3.6 (95% CI: 3.2–4.1). The direct age-adjusted period prevalence was 59.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 44.8–75.2) for women and 17.0 per 100,000 (95% CI: 8.9–25.1) for men. MS rates were highest among 30- to 39-year-olds and decreased with increasing age. Sensory and visual disturbances were the most common initial presentations with a prevalence of 51.1% (95% CI: 48.4–53.7) and 47.0% (95% CI: 44.4–49.7), respectively. Conclusion: Isfahan could be considered as an area with a medium to high risk of MS. This is in sharp contrast with the gradient hypothesis.

Background: Compared to the adult onset of multiple sclerosis (AOMS), both early-onset (EOMS) and late-onset (LOMS) are much less frequent, but are often under- or misdiagnosed. The aims of the present study were: 1. To compare demographic and clinical features of individuals with EOMS, AOMS and LOMS, and 2. To identify predictors for disability progression from relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). Method: Data were taken from the Isfahan Hakim MS database. Cases were classified as EOMS (MS onset $\le$ 18 years), LOMS (MS onset >50 years) and AOMS (MS >18 and $\le$ 50 years). Patients’ demographic and clinical (initial symptoms; course of disease; disease patterns from MRI; disease progress) information were gathered and assessed. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard regressions were conducted to determine differences between the three groups in the time lapse in conversion from relapsing remitting MS to secondary progressive MS. Results: A total of 2627 MS cases were assessed; of these 127 were EOMS, 84 LOMS and 2416 AOMS. The mean age of those with EOMS was 14.5 years; key symptoms were visual impairments, brain stem dysfunction, sensory disturbances and motor dysfunctions. On average, 24.6 years after disease onset, 14.2% with relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) were diagnosed with secondary progressive MS (SPMS). The key predictor variable was a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at disease onset. Compared to individuals with AOMS and LOMS, those with EOMS more often had one or two relapses in the first two years, and more often gadolinium-enhancing brain lesions. For individuals with AOMS, mean age was 29.4 years; key symptoms were sensory disturbances, motor dysfunctions and visual impairments. On average, 20.5 years after disease onset, 15.6% with RRMS progressed to SPMS. The key predictors at disease onset were: a higher EDSS score, younger age, a shorter inter-attack interval and spinal lesions. Compared to individuals with EOMS and LOMS, individuals with AOMS more often had either no or three and more relapses in the first two years. For individuals with LOMS, mean age was 53.8 years; key symptoms were motor dysfunctions, sensory disturbances and visual impairments. On average, 14 years after disease onset, 25.3% with RRMS switched to an SPMS. The key predictors at disease onset were: occurrence of spinal lesions and spinal gadolinium-enhancement. Compared to individuals with EOMS and AOMS, individuals with LOMS more often had no relapses in the first two years, and higher EDSS scores at disease onset and at follow-up. Conclusion: Among a large sample of MS sufferers, cases with early onset and late onset are observable. Individuals with early, adult and late onset MS each display distinct features which should be taken in consideration in their treatment.