Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998–2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales. The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.
The identification of mosquito vector species present at arboviral enzootic transmission foci is important to understand transmission eco-epidemiology and to propose and implement prevention and control strategies that reduce vector-borne equine encephalitis transmission. The goal of this study was to identify mosquito species potentially involved in the transmission of enzootic equine encephalitis, in relation to their abundance and diversity at three endemic regions in the República de Panamá. We sampled adult mosquitoes during the dry and rainy season of Panamá. We employed CDC light traps with octanol, EV traps with CO2 and Trinidad 17 traps baited with live hamsters. Traps were deployed in the peridomicile and extradomicile of houses from 18:00 to 6:00 h. We estimated the abundance and diversity of sampled species. We collected a total of 4868 mosquitoes, belonging to 45 species and 11 genera, over 216 sampling nights. Culex (Melanoconion) pedroi, a major Venezuelan equine encephalitis vector was relatively rare (< 2.0% of all sampled mosquitoes). We also found Cx. (Mel) adamesi, Cx. (Mel) crybda, Cx. (Mel) ocossa, Cx. (Mel) spissipes, Cx. (Mel) taeniopus, Cx. (Mel) vomerifer, Aedes scapularis, Ae. angustivittatus, Coquillettidia venezuelensis, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. declarator, Mansonia titillans, M. pseudotitillans and Psorophora ferox all species known to be vectorially competent for the transmission of arboviruses. Abundance and diversity of mosquitoes in the sampled locations was high, when compared with similar surveys in temperate areas. Information from previous reports about vectorial competence / capacity of the sampled mosquito species suggest that sampled locations have all the elements to support enzootic outbreaks of Venezuelan and Eastern equine encephalitides.
Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann is a major malaria vector in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean whose population dynamics, in response to changing environments, has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present monthly adult and larvae data collected from May 2016 to December 2017 in Ipetí-Guna, a village within an area targeted for malaria elimination in the República de Panamá. During the study period we collected a total of 1678 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (1602 adults and 76 larvae). Over 95% of the collected Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were An. albimanus. Using time series analysis techniques, we found that population dynamics of larvae and adults were not significantly correlated with each other at any time lag, though correlations were highest at one month lag between larvae and adults and four months lag between adults and larvae. Larvae population dynamics had cycles of three months and were sensitive to changes in temperature with 5 months lag, while adult abundance was correlated with itself (1 month lag) and with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with three months lag. A key observation from our study is the absence of both larvae and adults of An. albimanus between January and April from environments associated with Guna population’s daily activities, which suggests this time window could be the best time to implement elimination campaigns aimed at clearing Plasmodium spp. parasites from Guna populations using, for example, mass drug administration.
18 May 2020 in Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
SARS-COV-2 is the most recent from a series of emerging pathogens stressing national health systems. Initially restricted to Hubei province in China, COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-COV-2 has become pandemic, reaching almost every nation on our planet. Here, we present an estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) for this disease based on confirmed cases recorded during the initial 30 days of transmission. Based on local transmission data for the six initial days of transmission, we estimated (mean ± SE)R0= 2.58 ± 2.43.R0was reduced by up to 56% toR0= 1.12 ± 0.02 following suppression measures in place by April 4th, 2020. Independent estimates for the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) based on the serial interval distribution estimated for China showed that after 30 days,Rtdecreased reaching a value of 0.914 ± 0.104 on April 4th, 2020. In this study, we also describe the suppression strategies in place in Costa Rica and compare their impacts with those implemented in Panamá and Uruguay, provided these three middle-income countries have similar demographic and economic indicators. However, these three countries have structurally different health systems and have resorted to different suppression measures against COVID-19. We compare the early epidemic growth curves in the three countries using an exponential deceleration model. We found the lowest epidemic growth rate in Costa Rica, followed by Panamá and then Uruguay, while the highest deceleration was observed in Uruguay, followed by Costa Rica and Panamá. We discuss how the unified, universal healthcare system of Costa Rica has been vital to successfully manage the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic and call for the developments of precision public health tools to further improve epidemic health surveillance in Costa Rica.
The implementation of surveillance, control and prevention measures for Chagas´ disease requires an integrated approach. The sustainability of programs depends on community participation supported on a basic understanding of the problem. To evaluate the knowledge of people interviewed which facilitates or limits the surveillance, prevention and control of Chagas' disease in two endemic Panamanian communities where Rhodnius pallescens is the main vector. A questionnaire assessed the knowledge and risk factors related to Chagas' disease in 201 people over 10 years of age from the endemic communities of Las Pavas and Lagartera Grande located on the western shore of Panama Canal. Additionally, with the help of the residents, the presence of triatomine bugs in 93 dwellings was evaluated during a year. Of those interviewed, 69.2% (139/201) had poor or very poor knowledge about Chagas' disease. Nearly 93% (187/201) was exposed to moderate or high risk factors. Triatomine bugs were collected in 20.4% (19/93) of the evaluated homes; 80% (66/76) of them were R. pallescens. Significant association was found between the presence of triatomines inside the houses and precarious housing (p<0.01). Despite having been exposed to health education-related programs, it is necessary to strengthen the basic knowledge about Chagas' disease in the two communities before establishing prevention and surveillance measures which involve active participation of its inhabitants.