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Climate change can disrupt food availability and reduce access to food by affecting agricultural production in the world. Thus, the current empirical study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice production over the different regions of Punjab, Pakistan for the period of 1979–2018. The bound test co-integration method with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was used to explore the symmetric relationship between climate change and rice production. Furthermore, this study employed a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approach to investigate the asymmetric relationship between climate change and rice production. The results of symmetric ARDL indicate that in the long run there is a negative relationship between average maximum temperature and production of rice in all three regions. The results indicate that in the long-run average minimum temperature (Tmin) has a significant and negative association with the production of rice during the kharif season in Southern and Western Punjab. While in Central Punjab, minimum temperature (Tmin) has a positive association with the production of rice. The rainfall indicates that in the long run as rainfall increases in Central Punjab, it would cause to reduce the production of rice, while in the Southern and Western Punjab increased rainfall during the kharif season cause an increase in the production of rice. Moreover, the results of NARDL indicate an asymmetric relationship between climate and rice production. The dynamic multiplier analysis also supports the results by showing the dominance of the high impact of a positive and negative component of temperature on the production of rice in investigating three regions of Punjab, Pakistan.
Sohail Abbas; Shazia Kousar; Safdar Ali Shirazi; Muhammad Yaseen; Yasir Latif. Illuminating Empirical Evidence of Climate Change: Impacts on Rice Production in the Punjab Regions, Pakistan. Agricultural Research 2021, 1 -16.
AMA StyleSohail Abbas, Shazia Kousar, Safdar Ali Shirazi, Muhammad Yaseen, Yasir Latif. Illuminating Empirical Evidence of Climate Change: Impacts on Rice Production in the Punjab Regions, Pakistan. Agricultural Research. 2021; ():1-16.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSohail Abbas; Shazia Kousar; Safdar Ali Shirazi; Muhammad Yaseen; Yasir Latif. 2021. "Illuminating Empirical Evidence of Climate Change: Impacts on Rice Production in the Punjab Regions, Pakistan." Agricultural Research , no. : 1-16.
In Pakistan, many subsurface (SS) drainage projects were launched by the Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARP) to deal with twin problems (waterlogging and salinity). In some cases, sump pumps were installed for the disposal of SS effluent into surface drainage channels. Presently, sump pumps have become dysfunctional due to social and financial constraints. This study evaluates the alternate design of the Paharang drainage system that could permit the discharge of the SS drainage system in the response of gravity. The proposed design was completed after many successive trials in terms of lowering the bed level and decreasing the channel bed slope. Interconnected MS-Excel worksheets were developed to design the L-section and X-section. Design continuity of the drainage system was achieved by ensuring the bed and water levels of the receiving drain were lower than the outfalling drain. The drain cross-section was set within the present row with a few changes on the service roadside. The channel side slope was taken as 1:1.5 and the spoil bank inner and outer slopes were kept as 1:2 for the entire design. The earthwork was calculated in terms of excavation for lowering the bed level and increasing the drain section to place the excavated materials in a specific manner. The study showed that modification in the design of the Paharang drainage system is technically admissible and allows for the continuous discharge of SS drainage effluent from the area.
Muhammad Imran; Jinlan Xu; Muhammad Sultan; Redmond Shamshiri; Naveed Ahmed; Qaiser Javed; Hafiz Asfahan; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Usman; Riaz Ahmad. Free Discharge of Subsurface Drainage Effluent: An Alternate Design of the Surface Drain System in Pakistan. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4080 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Imran, Jinlan Xu, Muhammad Sultan, Redmond Shamshiri, Naveed Ahmed, Qaiser Javed, Hafiz Asfahan, Yasir Latif, Muhammad Usman, Riaz Ahmad. Free Discharge of Subsurface Drainage Effluent: An Alternate Design of the Surface Drain System in Pakistan. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (7):4080.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Imran; Jinlan Xu; Muhammad Sultan; Redmond Shamshiri; Naveed Ahmed; Qaiser Javed; Hafiz Asfahan; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Usman; Riaz Ahmad. 2021. "Free Discharge of Subsurface Drainage Effluent: An Alternate Design of the Surface Drain System in Pakistan." Sustainability 13, no. 7: 4080.
The Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T 1: 1961–2013; T 2: 1971–2013; T 3: 1981–2013; and T 4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (T mean) at most of the stations during T 1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T 4. The mean precipitation (P mean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T 1 and T 2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T 4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T 1–T 3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T 4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T 4.
Yasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma. Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2021, 144, 447 -468.
AMA StyleYasir Latif, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma. Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2021; 144 (1-2):447-468.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma. 2021. "Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 144, no. 1-2: 447-468.
The economy of Pakistan relies on the agricultural sector which mainly depends on the irrigation water generating from the upper Indus river basin. Mangla watershed is a trans-boundary basin which shares borders of India and Pakistan, it comprises five major sub-basins, i.e., Jhelum, Poonch, Kanshi, Neelum and Kunhar. The runoff production of this basin is largely controlled by snowmelt in combination with the winter precipitation in the upper part of the basin and summer monsoon. The present study focusses on the application of a statistical downscaling method to generate future climatic scenarios of climatic trends (temperature and precipitation) in Mangla watershed. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied to downscale the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3, Global Climate Model (HadCM3-GCM) predictions of the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The surface water analyst tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used for the future projected streamflows based on developing climate change scenarios by SDSM. The results revealed an increasing trend of annual maximum temperature (A2) at the rates of 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, a consistent decreasing trend of temperature was observed at the high-altitude region. Similarly, the annual minimum temperature exhibited an increasing pattern at the rates of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Furthermore, similar increases were observed for annual precipitation at the rates of 6%, 10%, and 19% during 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively, for the whole watershed. Significant increasing precipitation trends in the future (2080) were observed in Kunhar, Neelum, Poonch and Kanshi sub-basins at the rates of 16%, 11%, 13% and 59%, respectively. Consequently, increased annual streamflow in the future at the rate of 15% was observed attributing to an increased temperature for snow melting in Mangla watershed. The similar increasing streamflow trend is consistent with the seasonal trends in terms of winter (16%), spring (19%) and summer (20%); however, autumn exhibited decreasing trend for all periods.
Muhammad Yaseen; Muhammad Waseem; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Imran Azam; Ijaz Ahmad; Sohail Abbas; Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar; Ghulam Nabi. Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan. Water 2020, 12, 3254 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Yaseen, Muhammad Waseem, Yasir Latif, Muhammad Imran Azam, Ijaz Ahmad, Sohail Abbas, Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar, Ghulam Nabi. Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan. Water. 2020; 12 (11):3254.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Yaseen; Muhammad Waseem; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Imran Azam; Ijaz Ahmad; Sohail Abbas; Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar; Ghulam Nabi. 2020. "Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan." Water 12, no. 11: 3254.
In contrast to widespread glacier retreat evidenced globally, glaciers in the Karakoram region have exhibited positive mass balances and general glacier stability over the past decade. Snow and glacier meltwater from the Karakoram and the western Himalayas, which supplies the Indus River Basin, provide an essential source of water to more than 215 million people, either directly, as potable water, or indirectly, through hydroelectric generation and irrigation for crops. This study focuses on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) which combines the ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH). Specifically, we focus on the Gilgit River Basin (GRB) to inform more sustainable water use policy at the sub-basin scale. We employ two degree-day approaches, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) and Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to simulate runoff in the GRB during 2001–2012. The performance of SRM was poor during July and August, the period when glacier melt contribution typically dominates runoff. Consequently, SPHY outperformed SRM, likely attributable to SPHY’s ability to discriminate between glacier, snow, and rainfall contributions to runoff during the ablation period. The average simulated runoff revealed the prevalent snowmelt contribution as 62%, followed by the glacier melt 28% and rainfall 10% in GRB. We also assessed the potential impact of climate change on future water resources, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We estimate that summer flows are projected to increase by between 5.6% and 19.8% due to increased temperatures of between 0.7 and 2.6 °C over the period 2039–2070. If realized, increased summer flows in the region could prove beneficial for a range of sectors, but only over the short to medium term and if not associated with extreme events. Long-term projections indicate declining water resources in the region in terms of snow and glacier melt.
Yasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma; Sher Muhammad; Muhammad Adnan; Muhammad Yaseen; Rowan Fealy. Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1023 .
AMA StyleYasir Latif, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, Sher Muhammad, Muhammad Adnan, Muhammad Yaseen, Rowan Fealy. Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (10):1023.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma; Sher Muhammad; Muhammad Adnan; Muhammad Yaseen; Rowan Fealy. 2020. "Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach." Atmosphere 11, no. 10: 1023.
The assessment of meltwater sourcing from the clean and debris-covered glaciers is largely missing in High Mountain Asia (HMA). The melting rate varies with the debris cover thickness and glacier orientation. The present study quantified glacier melt attributed to varying debris cover in the Karakoram. We observed daily melting rates from ablation stakes installed over debris-free and debris-covered ice with thickness ranges between 0.5 and 40 cm at selected experimental sites with varying thicknesses during the ablation period (September and October 2018) and (July to August 2019). We selected glaciers named Ghulkin, Hinarchi, and Hoper facing east, south, and north, respectively to assess the role of glacier orientation on the melt. We observed that the debris-free ice melts faster than the debris-covered ice. Intriguingly, a thin debris layer of 0.5 cm did not enhance melting which is contrasting to the earlier studies. The melting rate decreased with increasing debris cover on all three glaciers. We also found the south-facing glacier featured the highest melting (on average ~ 25% more) and the melting rate of north and east-facing glaciers are approximately identical. We noted that the average degree-day factor for debris-free ice ranged between 0.56 and 0.73 cm °C−1 day−1 and for 40 cm debris cover between 0.13 and 0.25 cm °C−1 day−1. We suggest continuously observing various debris-covered glaciers to better understand the role of debris in melting.
Sher Muhammad; Lide Tian; Shaukat Ali; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Atif Wazir; Muhammad Arif Goheer; Muhammad Saifullah; Iqtidar Hussain; Liu Shiyin. Thin debris layers do not enhance melting of the Karakoram glaciers. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 746, 141119 .
AMA StyleSher Muhammad, Lide Tian, Shaukat Ali, Yasir Latif, Muhammad Atif Wazir, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Muhammad Saifullah, Iqtidar Hussain, Liu Shiyin. Thin debris layers do not enhance melting of the Karakoram glaciers. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 746 ():141119.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSher Muhammad; Lide Tian; Shaukat Ali; Yasir Latif; Muhammad Atif Wazir; Muhammad Arif Goheer; Muhammad Saifullah; Iqtidar Hussain; Liu Shiyin. 2020. "Thin debris layers do not enhance melting of the Karakoram glaciers." Science of The Total Environment 746, no. : 141119.
This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variability in hydrometeorological time-series to evaluate the current and future scenarios of water resources availability from upper Indus basin (UIB). Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to analyze the variability in the temperature, precipitation, and streamflow time-series data at 27 meteorological stations and 34 hydrological stations for the period of 1963 to 2014. The time-series data of entire study period were divided into two equal subseries of 26 years each (1963–1988 and 1989–2014) to assess the overlapping aspect of climate change acceleration over UIB. The results showed a warming pattern at low altitude stations, while a cooling tendency was detected at high-altitude stations. An increase in streamflow was detected during winter and spring seasons at all hydrological stations, whereas the streamflow in summer and autumn seasons exhibited decreasing trends. The annual precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend at ten stations, while a significant increasing trend was observed at Kohat station during second subseries of the study period. The most significant winter drying trends were observed at Gupis, Chitral, Garidopatta, and Naran stations of magnitude of 47%, 13%, 25%, and 18%, respectively, during the second subseries. The annual runoff exhibited significant deceasing trends over Jhelum subbasin at Azad Pattan, Chinari, Domel Kohala, Muzaffarabad, and Palote, while within Indus basin at Chahan, Gurriala, Khairabad, Karora, and Kalam in the second time-series. It is believed that the results of this study will be helpful for the decision-makers to develop strategies for planning and development of future water resources projects.
Muhammad Yaseen; Ijaz Ahmad; Jiali Guo; Muhammad Imran Azam; Yasir Latif. Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology 2020, 2020, 1 -18.
AMA StyleMuhammad Yaseen, Ijaz Ahmad, Jiali Guo, Muhammad Imran Azam, Yasir Latif. Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology. 2020; 2020 ():1-18.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Yaseen; Ijaz Ahmad; Jiali Guo; Muhammad Imran Azam; Yasir Latif. 2020. "Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan." Advances in Meteorology 2020, no. : 1-18.
Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.
Yasir Latif; Ma Yaoming; Muhammad Yaseen; Sher Muhammad; Muhammad Atif Wazir. Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2019, 139, 741 -758.
AMA StyleYasir Latif, Ma Yaoming, Muhammad Yaseen, Sher Muhammad, Muhammad Atif Wazir. Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2019; 139 (1-2):741-758.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasir Latif; Ma Yaoming; Muhammad Yaseen; Sher Muhammad; Muhammad Atif Wazir. 2019. "Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 139, no. 1-2: 741-758.
The indispensable water supply of major reservoirs in Pakistan, essentially depends on meltwater runoff, mainly generating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The present study includes snowmelt runoff simulation within Gilgit River, basin a sub basin of UIB. Snowmelt runoff model (SRM) incorporated with MODIS remote sensing snow cover products, was selected to simulate the daily discharges and to calculate the contribution of snowmelt impact on the discharge within Gilgit River basin, during the early 21st century (first decade). Our results revealed a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) as R2 (0.81) and average volume difference as DV (−0.51) in observed and simulated flow. Almost 9.2% of the total basin area is covered by glacier and permanent ice cover which contributes to the river runoff during summer. We also noted that the observed efficiency of the model becomes uncertain during high flow months such as June, July and August, such ambiguity during summer was attributed to glacier-melt runoff, which generates in August by the melting of glaciers.
Yasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma; Muhammad Sher; Sher Muhammad. Snowmelt Runoff Simulation During Early 21st Century Using Hydrological Modelling in the Snow-Fed Terrain of Gilgit River Basin (Pakistan). Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems 2019, 73 -76.
AMA StyleYasir Latif, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, Muhammad Sher, Sher Muhammad. Snowmelt Runoff Simulation During Early 21st Century Using Hydrological Modelling in the Snow-Fed Terrain of Gilgit River Basin (Pakistan). Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems. 2019; ():73-76.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasir Latif; Yaoming Ma; Weiqiang Ma; Muhammad Sher; Sher Muhammad. 2019. "Snowmelt Runoff Simulation During Early 21st Century Using Hydrological Modelling in the Snow-Fed Terrain of Gilgit River Basin (Pakistan)." Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems , no. : 73-76.
The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961–2013, (second) 1971–2013, (third) 1981–2013, and (fourth) 1991–2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.
Yasir Latif; Ma Yaoming; Muhammad Yaseen. Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2016, 131, 761 -775.
AMA StyleYasir Latif, Ma Yaoming, Muhammad Yaseen. Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2016; 131 (1-2):761-775.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasir Latif; Ma Yaoming; Muhammad Yaseen. 2016. "Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 131, no. 1-2: 761-775.