Significance: Early-warning indicators (EWIs), statistical metrics of system resilience, have been hypothesized to provide advance warning of sudden shifts in ecosystems, or so-called “regime shifts.” Here we tested this hypothesis for four commonly used EWIs. We used empirical time series from five freshwater ecosystems with documented sudden, persistent transitions hypothesized to represent critical transitions. EWIs were detected in several of these long-term records, and in some cases several years before the transition; however, these EWIs varied in reliability, and agreement between indicators was low. Moreover, their applicability was strongly limited by the requirement for ecosystem-specific knowledge of transition-generating mechanisms and their drivers to choose relevant state variables for analysis.

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect both temperature and net precipitation, with implications for lake water level. We describe the design of a harmonized, simultaneous, cross-European mesocosm experiment to elucidate the effects of climate change on community structure, functioning, and metabolism in shallow lakes at low and high nutrient levels with contrasting depths (1 and 2 m). We used cylindrical (D = 1.2 m) tanks that were either 1.2 or 2.2 m high, each having a 10-cm sediment layer. We inoculated the mesocosms with a mixed sample of sediment and plankton from lakes with contrasting nutrient concentrations and added macrophytes and planktivorous fish. Sediment was pre-equilibrated to the required experimental nutrient concentration. During the experiment the water level decreased with increasing temperature (up to 90 cm in the Mediterranean mesocosms) while conductivity increased. The average chlorophyll a concentration increased with temperature in the deep mesocosms but was more variable in the shallow mesocosms. Macrophyte abundance increased with temperature, while the oxygen data suggest that net primary production peaked at intermediate temperatures. We conclude that our experimental design has the potential for tracking the interacting effects of global warming and eutrophication in shallow lakes.

Important drivers of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in lakes are temperature, nutrients, and light availability, which are predicted to be affected by climate change. Little is known about how these three factors jointly influence shallow lakes metabolism and metabolic status as net heterotrophic or autotrophic. We conducted a pan‐European standardized mesocosm experiment covering a temperature gradient from Sweden to Greece to test the differential temperature sensitivity of GPP and ER at two nutrient levels (mesotrophic or eutrophic) crossed with two water levels (1 m and 2 m) to simulate different light regimes. The findings from our experiment were compared with predictions made according the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). GPP and ER were significantly higher in eutrophic mesocosms than in mesotrophic ones, and in shallow mesocosms compared to deep ones, while nutrient status and depth did not interact. The estimated temperature gains for ER of ~ 0.62 eV were comparable with those predicted by MTE. Temperature sensitivity for GPP was slightly higher than expected ~ 0.54 eV, but when corrected for daylight length, it was more consistent with predictions from MTE ~ 0.31 eV. The threshold temperature for the switch from autotrophy to heterotrophy was lower under mesotrophic (~ 11°C) than eutrophic conditions (~ 20°C). Therefore, despite a lack of significant temperature‐treatment interactions in driving metabolism, the mesocosm's nutrient level proved to be crucial for how much warming a system can tolerate before it switches from net autotrophy to net heterotrophy.