More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

Significance: Pathways for China to achieve its dual targets of air quality and CO ₂ mitigation in 2035 were investigated through a newly developed evaluation framework coupling integrated assessment and air quality models. Results indicate that the low-carbon energy policies, traditionally regarded as a primary result of climate mitigation, are likely driven more by the efforts on air quality attainment in China. To achieve air quality attainment in China could lead to more reduction in CO ₂ emissions than its Nationally Determined Contribution. In addition, stronger low-carbon policies will bring significant benefits to public health via improvements in air quality. This study also provides a valuable reference for other developing countries to address their duel challenges of climate change and air pollution.

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.

The sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) scenarios provide opportunities to explore global climate and pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features, but they might be limited on regional‐scale projections due to inadequate consideration of local policies. Here, we simulated China's PM_2.5 air quality with local policy‐based scenarios (Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC)) and the CMIP6 scenarios. We found both emission inventories can reproduce China's base‐year PM_2.5 and chemical aerosols while using DPEC emissions could better match in‐situ observations. In addition, DPEC mitigation scenarios can better capture China's PM_2.5 decline during 2015–2019 (22% under SSP2‐45‐policy and 30% under SSP1‐26‐best) with observations (∼28%) than CMIP6 emissions. With the effects of current‐year bias and inadequate considerations of pollution control policies, PM_2.5 projections in 2030 and 2050 with CMIP6 mitigation scenarios are 42%–48% (9–13 μg/m³) and 59%–73% (8–12 μg/m³) higher than projections with DEPC. Our study suggests the community should incorporate more region‐specific environmental policy in future scenario designs.

Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30–35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.