Time series analysis is a valuable tool in epidemiology that complements the classical epidemiological models in two different ways: Prediction and forecast. Prediction is related to explaining past and current data based on various internal and external influences that may or may not have a causative role. Forecasting is an exploration of the possible future values based on the predictive ability of the model and hypothesized future values of the external and/or internal influences. The time series analysis approach has the advantage of being easier to use (in the cases of more straightforward and linear models such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average). Still, it is limited in forecasting time, unlike the classical models such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed. Its applicability in forecasting comes from its better accuracy for short-term prediction. In its basic form, it does not assume much theoretical knowledge of the mechanisms of spreading and mutating pathogens or the reaction of people and regulatory structures (governments, companies, etc.). Instead, it estimates from the data directly. Its predictive ability allows testing hypotheses for different factors that positively or negatively contribute to the pandemic spread; be it school closures, emerging variants, etc. It can be used in mortality or hospital risk estimation from new cases, seroprevalence studies, assessing properties of emerging variants, and estimating excess mortality and its relationship with a pandemic.

Islet transplantation-immunological challenges and current perspectives

Although the chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the end of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global health emergency, the disease is still a global threat. To be able to manage such pandemics in the future, it is necessary to develop proper strategies and opportunities to protect human life. The data on the SARS-CoV-2 virus must be continuously analyzed, and the possibilities of mutation and the emergence of new, more infectious variants must be anticipated, as well as the options of using different preventive and therapeutic techniques. This is because the fast development of severe acute coronavirus 2 syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern have posed a significant problem for COVID-19 pandemic control using the presently available vaccinations. This review summarizes data on the SARS-CoV-2 variants that are responsible for severe COVID-19 and the clinical efficacy of the most commonly used vaccines in clinical practice. The consequences after the disease (long COVID or post-COVID conditions) continue to be the subject of studies and research, and affect social and economic life worldwide.

Although abundant data confirm the efficacy and safety profile of the developed vaccines against COVID-19, there are still some concerns regarding vaccination in high-risk populations. This is especially valid for patients susceptible to thrombotic or bleeding events and hesitant people due to the fear of thrombotic incidents following vaccination. This narrative review focuses on various inherited and acquired thrombotic and coagulation disorders and the possible pathophysiologic mechanisms interacting with the coagulation system during immunization in view of the currently available safety data regarding COVID-19 vaccines. Inherited blood coagulation disorders and inherited thrombotic disorders in the light of COVID-19, as well as blood coagulation and thrombotic disorders and bleeding complications following COVID-19 vaccines, along with the possible pathogenesis hypotheses, therapeutic interventions, and imaging for diagnosing are discussed in detail. Lastly, the lack of causality between the bleeding and thrombotic events and COVID-19 vaccines is debated, but still emphasizes the importance of vaccination against COVID-19, outweighing the minimal risk of potential rare adverse events associated with coagulation.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an immune-mediated chronic and long-term condition that can lead to severe joint damage and disability. It has been shown that doctor–patient interaction and communication can have a significant impact on faster patient diagnosis and treatment outcomes. Primary care (PC) is the first level of patient contact with doctors and the health system. Communication between them is often ineffective, leading to delays in diagnosis, care, and the use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The protocols and standards for the treatment of RA are well established by all rheumatology organizations. All of them recommend early initiation of DMARDs, which leads to better long-term outcomes. There are some recommendations that would lead to better optimization of recognition, management, and referral practices. Early diagnosis, effective communication between general practitioners and specialists, and patient education about possible targeted therapies and biological products, as well as subsequent monitoring of therapies and screening for risk factors and comorbidities, will improve patient health and optimize costs. We aimed to offer strategies and possibilities for integrating and optimizing primary care and specialized therapies in RA because proper management will reduce the severity of the disease and even reduce mortality from chronic diseases such as RA.

Background and objectives: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) poses challenges to the healthcare system, especially with frequent heart involvement. The current retrospective observational study aims to summarize the type and degree of cardiovascular involvement in children with MISC and to find possible associations between laboratory, inflammatory, and imaging abnormalities and the predominant clinical phenotype using a cluster analysis. Material and methods: We present a retrospective observational single-center study including 51 children meeting the MIS-C criteria. Results: Fifty-three percent of subjects presented with at least one sign of cardiovascular involvement (i.e., arterial hypotension, heart failure, pericardial effusion, myocardial dysfunction, pericarditis without effusion, myocarditis, coronaritis, palpitations, and ECG abnormalities). Acute pericarditis was found in 30/41 of the children (73%) assessed using imaging: 14/30 (46.7%) with small pericardial effusion and 16/30 (53.3%) without pericardial effusion. The levels of CRP were significantly elevated in the children with pericarditis (21.6 ± 13 mg/dL vs. 13.9 ± 11 mg/dL, p = 0.035), and the serum levels of IL-6 were higher in the children with small pericardial effusion compared to those without (191 ± 53 ng/L vs. 88 ± 27 ng/L, p = 0.041). Pericarditis with detectable pericardial effusion was significantly more frequent in the female vs. male subjects, 72% vs. 30% (p = 0.007). The hierarchical clustering analysis showed two clusters: Cluster 1 includes the children without cardiovascular symptoms, and Cluster 2 generalizes the MIS-C children with mild and severe cardiovascular involvement, combining pericarditis, myocarditis, heart failure, and low blood pressure. Also, subjects from Cluster 2 displayed significantly elevated levels of fibrinogen (5.7 ± 0.3 vs. 4.6 ± 0.3, p = 0.03) and IL-6 (158 ± 36 ng/mL vs. 66 ± 22 ng/mL, p = 0.032), inflammatory markers suggestive of a cytokine storm. Conclusions: Our results confirm that children with oligosymptomatic MIS-C or those suspected of long COVID-19 should be screened for possible cardiological involvement.