The urban agglomeration on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains is a pivotal place in Western China; it is essential for the economic growth of Xinjiang and acts as a critical bridge between China’s interior and the Asia–Europe continent. Due to unique natural conditions, the local population distribution exhibits distinct regional characteristics. This study employs the spatial lag model (SLM) from conventional spatial analysis and the random forest model (RFM) from contemporary machine learning techniques. It integrates traditional geographic data, including land cover data and nighttime light data, with geographical big data, such as POI (points of interest) and OSM (OpenStreetMap), to build a comprehensive indicator database. Subsequently, it simulates the spatial population distribution within the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in 2020. The accuracy of the results is then compared and assessed against the accuracy of other available population raster datasets, and the spatial distribution pattern in 2020 is analyzed. The findings reveal the following: (1) The result of SLM, combined with multi-source data, predicts the population distribution as a relatively uniform and nearly circular structure, with minimal spatial differentiation. (2) The result of RFM, employing multi-source data, better captures the spatial population distribution, resulting in irregular boundaries that are indicative of strong spatial heterogeneity. (3) Both models demonstrate superior accuracy in simulating population distribution. The spatial lag model’s accuracy surpasses that of the GHS and GPW datasets, albeit still trailing behind WorldPop and LandScan. Meanwhile, the random forest model significantly outperforms the four aforementioned population raster datasets. (4) The population spatial pattern in the urban agglomeration on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains predominantly consists of four distinct circles, illustrating a “one axis, one center, and multiple focal points” distribution characteristic. Combining the random forest model with geographic big data for spatialized population simulation offers robust scientific validity and practicality. It holds potential for broader application within the urban agglomeration on the Tianshan Mountains and across Xinjiang. This study can offer insights for studies on regional population spatial distributions and inform sustainable development strategies for cities and their populations.

Transportation significantly influences economically underdeveloped arid regions, impacting economic growth and social progress. Analyzing Transport Superiority Degree (TSD) and its implications in such regions is crucial. A new arid region-specific evaluation framework addresses traditional limitations by considering indicators like route connectivity and desert interference. This article conducts an empirical study using Southern Xinjiang as a research case. It combines comprehensive evaluation methods, spatial autocorrelation methods, spatial Durbin models, and coupling coordination models to depict Transport Support Capability (TSC), Transport Access Capacity (TAC), and Transport Guarantee Capacity (TGC) at different scales in Southern Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020. The study reveals spatial patterns, evolutionary characteristics, economic impacts, and social effects of TSD at various scales. Key findings include: (1) Rapid expansion of transportation infrastructure in Southern Xinjiang. The levels of TSD at different scales have gradually increased, and spatial and temporal pattern differences are evident. At the county level, TSD forms a “core-periphery” spatial pattern centered around the Southern Xinjiang Railway, with “high-high” agglomeration areas centered around Kashgar city and “low-low” agglomeration areas centered around Qiemo County. (2) Prefectural-level TSD improvements have limited impacts on regional development, while county-level TSC, TAC, TGC, and TSD positively affect economic and social growth but also exhibit competitive effects. (3) TSD is transitioning from non-coordinated to coordinated development with economic and social progress at different scales. This research informs transportation facility evaluation in arid regions.