E.Marian Scott

Prof. Dr. E.Marian Scott

School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8SQ, UK

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

24Years (2003-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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12 August 2020 in Radiocarbon
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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PRPaula J Reimer
Paula J Reimer
WAWilliam E N Austin
William E N Austin
EBEdouard Bard
Edouard Bard
ABAlex Bayliss
Alex Bayliss
PBPaul G Blackwell
Paul G Blackwell
STSahra Talamo
Sahra Talamo
Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

6 March 2020 in Nature Communications
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Journal Article
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SMStephen Christopher Maberly
Stephen Christopher Maberly
RORuth A. O’donnell
Ruth A. O’donnell
RWR. Iestyn Woolway
R. Iestyn Woolway
MCMark Cutler
Mark Cutler
MGMengyi Gong
Mengyi Gong
ATAndrew N. Tyler
Andrew N. Tyler
Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.

12 August 2020 in Radiocarbon
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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THTimothy J Heaton
Timothy J Heaton
MBMaarten Blaauw
Maarten Blaauw
PBPaul G Blackwell
Paul G Blackwell
CRChristopher Bronk Ramsey
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
PRPaula J Reimer
Paula J Reimer
ESE.Marian Scott
E.Marian Scott
To create a reliable radiocarbon calibration curve, one needs not only high-quality data but also a robust statistical methodology. The unique aspects of much of the calibration data provide considerable modeling challenges and require a made-to-measure approach to curve construction that accurately represents and adapts to these individualities, bringing the data together into a single curve. For IntCal20, the statistical methodology has undergone a complete redesign, from the random walk used in IntCal04, IntCal09 and IntCal13, to an approach based upon Bayesian splines with errors-in-variables. The new spline approach is still fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but offers considerable advantages over the previous random walk, including faster and more reliable curve construction together with greatly increased flexibility and detail in modeling choices. This paper describes the new methodology together with the tailored modifications required to integrate the various datasets. For an end-user, the key changes include the recognition and estimation of potential over-dispersion in14C determinations, and its consequences on calibration which we address through the provision of predictive intervals on the curve; improvements to the modeling of rapid14C excursions and reservoir ages/dead carbon fractions; and modifications made to, hopefully, ensure better mixing of the MCMC which consequently increase confidence in the estimated curve.

25 March 2016 in Nutrients
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Journal Article
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XCXianlei Cai
Xianlei Cai
XLXueying Li
Xueying Li
WFWenjie Fan
Wenjie Fan
WYWanqi Yu
Wanqi Yu
SWShan Wang
Shan Wang
XLXiuyang Li
Xiuyang Li
The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between potassium and obesity/metabolic syndrome. We identified eight relevant studies and applied meta-analysis, and nonlinear dose-response analysis to obtain the available evidence. The results of the pooled analysis and systematic review indicated that high potassium intake could not reduce the risk of obesity (pooled OR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.61–1.01), while serum potassium and urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio was associated with obesity. Potassium intake was associated with metabolic syndrome (pooled OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.50–0.97). Nonlinear analysis also demonstrated a protective effect of adequate potassium intake on obesity and metabolic syndrome. Adequate intake of fruits and vegetables, which were the major sources of potassium, was highly recommended. However, additional pertinent studies are needed to examine the underlying mechanism.

1 January 2020 in Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
NBN.A. Beresford
N.A. Beresford
ESE.Marian Scott
E.Marian Scott
DCD. Copplestone
D. Copplestone
In the initial aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl accident there were detrimental effects recorded on wildlife, including, mass mortality of pine trees close to the reactor, reduced pine seed production, reductions in soil invertebrate abundance and diversity and likely death of small mammals. More than 30 years after the Chernobyl accident there is no consensus on the longer-term impact of the chronic exposure to radiation on wildlife in what is now referred to as the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Reconciling this lack of consensus is one of the main challenges for radioecology. With the inclusion of environmental protection in, for instance, the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), we need to be able to incorporate knowledge of the potential effects of radiation on wildlife within the regulatory process (e.g. as a basis on which to define benchmark dose rates). In this paper, we use examples of reported effects on different wildlife groups inhabiting the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) as a framework to discuss potential reasons for the lack of consensus, consider important factors influencing dose rates organisms receive and make some recommendations on good practice.

21 April 2020 in Radiocarbon
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Journal Article
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JPJ van der Plicht
J van der Plicht
CRC Bronk Ramsey
C Bronk Ramsey
THT J Heaton
T J Heaton
ESE.Marian Scott
E.Marian Scott
STS Talamo
S Talamo
The curves recommended for calibrating radiocarbon (14C) dates into absolute dates have been updated. For calibrating atmospheric samples from the Northern Hemisphere, the new curve is called IntCal20. This is accompanied by associated curves SHCal20 for the Southern Hemisphere, and Marine20 for marine samples. In this “companion article” we discuss advances and developments that have led to improvements in the updated curves and highlight some issues of relevance for the general readership. In particular the dendrochronological based part of the curve has seen a significant increase in data, with single-year resolution for certain time ranges, extending back to 13,910 calBP. Beyond the tree rings, the new curve is based upon an updated combination of marine corals, speleothems, macrofossils, and varved sediments and now reaches back to 55,000 calBP. Alongside these data advances, we have developed a new, bespoke statistical curve construction methodology to allow better incorporation of the diverse constituent records and produce a more robust curve with uncertainties. Combined, these data and methodological advances offer the potential for significant new insight into our past. We discuss some implications for the user, such as the dating of the Santorini eruption and also some consequences of the new curve for Paleolithic archaeology.