Background— Heart failure has an annual mortality rate ranging from 5% to 75%. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a multivariate risk model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in heart failure patients with the use of easily obtainable characteristics relating to clinical status, therapy (pharmacological as well as devices), and laboratory parameters. Methods and Results— The Seattle Heart Failure Model was derived in a cohort of 1125 heart failure patients with the use of a multivariate Cox model. For medications and devices not available in the derivation database, hazard ratios were estimated from published literature. The model was prospectively validated in 5 additional cohorts totaling 9942 heart failure patients and 17 307 person-years of follow-up. The accuracy of the model was excellent, with predicted versus actual 1-year survival rates of 73.4% versus 74.3% in the derivation cohort and 90.5% versus 88.5%, 86.5% versus 86.5%, 83.8% versus 83.3%, 90.9% versus 91.0%, and 89.6% versus 86.7% in the 5 validation cohorts. For the lowest score, the 2-year survival was 92.8% compared with 88.7%, 77.8%, 58.1%, 29.5%, and 10.8% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The overall receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.729 (95% CI, 0.714 to 0.744). The model also allowed estimation of the benefit of adding medications or devices to an individual patient’s therapeutic regimen. Conclusions— The Seattle Heart Failure Model provides an accurate estimate of 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival with the use of easily obtained clinical, pharmacological, device, and laboratory characteristics.

Background— Studies in experimental models and preliminary clinical experience suggested a possible therapeutic role for the soluble tumor necrosis factor antagonist etanercept in heart failure. Methods and Results— Patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV chronic heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤0.30 were enrolled in 2 clinical trials that differed only in the doses of etanercept used. In RECOVER, patients received placebo (n=373) or subcutaneous etanercept in doses of 25 mg every week (n=375) or 25 mg twice per week (n=375). In RENAISSANCE, patients received placebo (n=309), etanercept 25 mg twice per week (n=308), or etanercept 25 mg 3 times per week (n=308). The primary end point of each individual trial was clinical status at 24 weeks. Analysis of the effect of the 2 higher doses of etanercept on the combined outcome of death or hospitalization due to chronic heart failure from the 2 studies was also planned (RENEWAL). On the basis of prespecified stopping rules, both trials were terminated prematurely owing to lack of benefit. Etanercept had no effect on clinical status in RENAISSANCE ( P =0.17) or RECOVER ( P =0.34) and had no effect on the death or chronic heart failure hospitalization end point in RENEWAL (etanercept to placebo relative risk=1.1, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.33, P =0.33). Conclusions— The results of RENEWAL rule out a clinically relevant benefit of etanercept on the rate of death or hospitalization due to chronic heart failure.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) or diastolic heart failure is a common and highly morbid condition.¹ Clinical trials of renin-angiotensin system antagonists have not demonstrated improvement in outcomes or clinical status in HFPEF, and effective therapies are needed.² Phosphodiesterase-5 (PDE-5) metabolizes the nitric oxide and natriuretic peptide systems' second messenger cyclic guanosine monophosphate and thus may limit beneficial nitric oxide and natriuretic peptide actions in the heart, vasculature, and kidneys.

Recent studies have identified the importance of proinflammatory mediators in the development and progression of heart failure. The growing appreciation of the pathophysiological consequences of sustained expression of proinflammatory mediators in preclinical and clinical heart failure models culminated in a series of multicenter clinical trials that used “targeted” approaches to neutralize tumor necrosis factor in patients with moderate to advanced heart failure. However, these targeted approaches have resulted in worsening heart failure, thereby raising a number of important questions about what role, if any, proinflammatory cytokines play in the pathogenesis of heart failure. This review will summarize the tremendous growth of knowledge that has taken place in this field, with a focus on what we have learned from the negative clinical trials, as well as the potential direction of future research in this area.