To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

A downward titration of antihypertensive drug regimens in summertime is often performed on the basis of seasonal variations of clinic blood pressure (BP). However, little is known about the actual interaction between outdoor air temperature and the effects of antihypertensive treatment on ambulatory BP. The combined effects of aging, treatment, and daily mean temperature on clinic and ambulatory BP were investigated in 6404 subjects referred to our units between October 1999 and December 2003. Office and mean 24-hour systolic BP, as well as morning pressure surge, were significantly lower in hot (>90th percentiles of air temperature; 136±19, 130±14, and 33.3±16.1 mm Hg; P <0.05 for all), and higher in cold (<10th percentiles) days (141±12, 133±11, and 37.3±9.5 mm Hg; at least P <0.05 for all) when compared with intermediate days (138±18, 132±14, and 35.3±15.4 mm Hg). At regression analysis, 24-hour and daytime systolic pressure were inversely related to temperature ( P <0.01 for all). Conversely, nighttime systolic pressure was positively related to temperature ( P <0.02), with hot days being associated with higher nighttime pressure. Air temperature was identified as an independent predictor of nighttime systolic pressure increase in the group of elderly treated hypertensive subjects only. No significant relationship was found between air temperature and heart rate. Our results show for the first time that hot weather is associated with an increase in systolic pressure at night in treated elderly hypertensive subjects. This may be because of a nocturnal BP escape from the effects of a lighter summertime drug regimen and may have important implications for seasonal modulation of antihypertensive treatment.

Seasonal blood pressure (BP) changes have been found to be related to either outdoor or indoor temperature. No information regarding the independent effects of temperature measured proximally to the patient, the personal-level environmental temperature (PET), is available. Inclusion of daylight hours in multivariate analysis might allow exploring the independent interaction of BP with seasonality. To investigate whether ambulatory BP monitoring is affected by PET or by seasonality, 1897 patients referred to our hypertension units underwent ambulatory BP monitoring with a battery-powered temperature data logger fitted to the carrying pouch of the monitor. Predictors of 24-hour daytime and nighttime BP and of morning BP surge were investigated with a multivariate stepwise regression model, including age, sex, body mass index, antihypertensive treatment, office BP, ambulatory heart rate, PET, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and daylight hours as independent variables. At adjusted regression analysis, daytime systolic BP was negatively related to PET (−0.14; 95% confidence interval, −0.25 to −0.02); nighttime BP was positively related to daylight hours (0.63; 0.37–0.90); and morning BP surge was negatively related to daylight hours (−0.54; −0.87 to −0.21). These results provide new evidence that PET and seasonality (daylight hours) are 2 independent predictors of ambulatory BP monitoring.