Ambrosia trifida is an invasive alien plant species, which has very high reproductive and environmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants and destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of A. trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 A. trifida distribution data and 14 points of environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained using the MaxEnt (version 3.4.1) model optimized by Kuenm package, and thus the potential suitable areas of A. trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050, 2070) were predicted. The changes of A. trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of A. trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of A. trifida.

Ambrosia trifida is a kind of malignant invasive plant, which has very high reproductive and en-vironmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants, destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of Ambrosia trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 Ambrosia trifida distribution data and 14 environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained by using the MaxEnt model optimized by Kuenm package, the potential suit-able areas of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050,2070) were predicted. The changes of Ambrosia trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of Ambrosia trifida.