This paper aims to determine whether there is a case for promoting a new benchmark for forecasting practice via the innovative application of generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI) for predicting the future. Today, forecasts can be generated via Gen-AI models without the need for an in-depth understanding of forecasting theory, practice, or coding. Therefore, using three datasets, we present a comparative analysis of forecasts from Gen-AI models against forecasts from seven univariate and automated models from the forecast package in R, covering both parametric and non-parametric forecasting techniques. In some cases, we find statistically significant evidence to conclude that forecasts from Gen-AI models can outperform forecasts from popular benchmarks like seasonal ARIMA, seasonal naïve, exponential smoothing, and Theta forecasts (to name a few). Our findings also indicate that the accuracy of forecasts from Gen-AI models can vary not only based on the underlying data structure but also on the quality of prompt engineering (thus highlighting the continued importance of forecasting education), with the forecast accuracy appearing to improve at longer horizons. Therefore, we find some evidence towards promoting forecasts from Gen-AI models as benchmarks in future forecasting practice. However, at present, users are cautioned against reliability issues and Gen-AI being a black box in some cases.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the scholarly footprint of ChatGPT, an AI language model, using bibliometric and scientometric methods. The study aims to understand the evolution of research output, citation patterns, collaborative networks, application domains, and future research directions related to ChatGPT. By analyzing data from the Scopus database, 533 relevant articles were identified for analysis. The findings reveal the prominent publication venues, influential authors, and countries contributing to ChatGPT research. Collaborative networks among researchers and institutions are visualized, highlighting patterns of co-authorship. The application domains of ChatGPT, such as customer support and content generation, are examined. Moreover, the study identifies emerging keywords and potential research areas for future exploration. The methodology employed includes data extraction, bibliometric analysis using various indicators, and visualization techniques such as Sankey diagrams. The analysis provides valuable insights into ChatGPT's influence in academia and offers researchers guidance for further advancements. This study stimulates discussions, collaborations and innovations to enhance ChatGPT's capabilities and impact across domains.

This study introduces a novel forecast combination method for monthly Japanese tourism demand, analyzed at both aggregated and disaggregated levels, including tourist, business, and other travel purposes. The sample period spans from January 1996 to December 2018. Initially, the time series data were decomposed into high and low frequencies using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technique. Following this, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Neural Network (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) forecasting models were applied to each decomposed component individually. The forecasts from these models were then combined to produce the final predictions. Our findings indicate that the two-stage forecast combination method significantly enhances forecasting accuracy in most cases. Consequently, the combined forecasts utilizing EEMD outperform those generated by individual models.