A high-resolution 2D near-surface and land surface model was developed to produce snow and temperature forecasts over the complex alpine region of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. The model is driven by downscaled operational outputs from the Meteorological Service of Canada’s regional and global forecast models. Downscaling is applied to correct forcings for elevation differences between the operational forecast models and the high-resolution surface model. The high-resolution near-surface and land surface model is then used to further refine the forecasts. The model was validated against temperature and snow depth observations. The largest improvements were found in regions where low-resolution (i.e., on the order of 10 km or more) operational models typically lack the spatial resolution to capture rapid elevation changes. The model was found to better reproduce the intermittent snow cover at low-lying stations and to reduce snow depth error by as much as 3 m at alpine stations.

In the context of Canada’s Ocean Protection Plan (OPP), improved coastal and near-shore modelling is needed to enhance marine safety and emergency response capacity in the aquatic environment. In this study, the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is adopted to develop an ocean forecasting system for Saint John harbour in the Bay of Fundy, on the east coast of Canada. The challenging regional oceanography is characterized by the presence of some of the world’s strongest tides, significant river runoff and complicated geometry. A three-level one-way nesting approach is used to downscale from a 1/12° North Atlantic-Arctic regional model to very-high-resolution port-scale around Saint John harbour. The three nested grids cover the outer shelf, the Bay of Fundy and finally the approach to the harbour with resolutions of 2.5 km, 500 m and 100 m respectively. Due to the lack of accurate runoff data at the Saint John River outlet, the model’s lateral open boundary condition is modified to introduce the river forcing with the observed time series of water level near the mouth of the river. Evaluation with observational data demonstrates the model’s accuracy for the simulation of tidal elevation and currents, non-tidal water level and currents, temperature and salinity. Comparison with the observed sea surface temperature demonstrates the improved model accuracy through increasing the horizontal resolution. Virtual Lagrangian trajectories computed using the modelled surface currents and including wind effects show good agreement with the observed trajectories of different types of surface drifters. This study demonstrates the capability of the NEMO modelling framework to provide very-high-resolution modelling at port-scale resolution for the Saint John harbour.

As harvesting of wind energy grows, so does the need for improved forecasts from the surface to the top of wind turbines. To improve mesoscale forecasts of wind, temperature, and dewpoint temperature in this layer, two different approaches are examined. In the first experiment, the vertical resolution of a limited-area model with 2.5-km grid spacing (LAM-2.5 km) is significantly increased near the surface to better represent profiles in that layer. In the second experiment, prognostic variables for land and ocean surfaces are initialized using results from an external land surface model system [the Global Environmental Multiscale Surface system (GEM-Surf)] and from a regional ocean model. Results show that increasing the vertical resolution near the surface leads to improved temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts at the surface and in the wind turbine layer. For winds, improvements are more modest, because they are limited to the gradient measured across the span of the vertical wind turbine blades. On the other hand, the replacement of operational surface analyses with high-resolution analyses obtained from GEM-Surf is found to improve summer dewpoint temperature forecasts. It is shown that changes in soil moisture analyses explain the bulk of the improved dewpoint forecasts.