Land use change is considered to be one of the key direct drivers of ecosystem erosion and biodiversity loss. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) serves as a robust tool for environmental impact assessment, featuring an advanced framework and indicators for assessing global biodiversity loss. In this research, we utilized the Species Distribution Model (SDM) to evaluate 6569 species across five taxonomic groups. We simulated habitat change and losses induced by land use changes under sustainable future scenarios from the present to 2100. This enables us to assess spatial extinction risks based on shifts in the global distribution of species. Our findings reveal a global biodiversity extinction risk of approximately 4.9 species/year, equivalent to an extinction rate of 745.9 E/MSY. Notably, higher-risk hotspots have been identified in regions such as South America, South Australia, and New Zealand. Although future sustainable scenarios involving land intensification may mitigate the biodiversity extinction rate, the objective of reaching 10 E/MSY by the end of this century remains a distant goal. By providing a more rational basis for biodiversity loss, the indicators of spatial extinction risk demonstrate the advantage of effectively reflecting regional characteristics.

Rising warnings of a potential sixth mass extinction and ecosystem degradation, fueled by climate change and human activities, highlight the need for an accurate measurement of human impacts on biodiversity loss to support effective policymaking. This study incorporates the extinction rate metric with the life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) model to develop a set of policy-relevant, closed-loop spatiotemporal damage factors (DFs). Here, biodiversity damage is expressed in E/MSY (expected extinctions per million species years), representing extinction rate-based impacts and intrinsic biodiversity value. This approach enabled quantification of the biodiversity extinction rate due to future land use changes. The total net extinction rate was estimated at 161.9 E/MSY, and the global weighted average DF was estimated at 1.73 × 10^-05 E/MSY/km² as a species richness- and area-weighted summary of spatially heterogeneous damage. The grid-scaled DF results were provided at a global resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. DFs indicated marginal extinctions from land use changes within each grid cell, providing a means to customize the disaggregated-scale DF for various LCA inventories. These results improve the interpretability of location-based biodiversity assessments, making them more relevant to policy decisions.