Objective: To estimate the prevalence, incidence, survival, and disease characteristics of systemic sclerosis (SSc) in the Detroit tricounty area.Methods: A census of SSc cases for the period 1989–1991 was conducted in the Detroit area, using multiple sources for case identification. Diagnoses were verified by medical record review. Capture‐recapture analysis was used to estimate the total SSc population. Cases of localized scleroderma (morphea and linear disease) were excluded.Results: Based on 706 verified cases of SSc, prevalence was initially estimated to be 242.0 cases per million adults (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 213–274), with an annual incidence of 19.3 new cases per million adults per year (95% CI 12.4–30.2). Capture‐recapture analysis, based on the degree of overlap of verified cases among multiple sources, resulted in a revised prevalence estimate of 276 cases per million adults (95% CI 245–310). Sex‐ and race‐specific prevalence estimates were significantly higher for women than for men, and for blacks than for whites. The average age at diagnosis was significantly younger for blacks than for whites. Compared with white patients, black patients were almost twice as likely to have diffuse disease (prevalence proportion ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.48–2.35). Median survival was ∼11 years. Factors negatively affecting survival included male sex (hazard ratio 1.81, 95% CI 1.29–2.55) and older age at diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% CI 1.03–1.05).Conclusion: This study establishes baseline estimates of SSc occurrence and characteristics in a large US cohort consisting primarily of black adults and white adults. These data should facilitate research regarding the role of geographic, ethnic, racial, and environmental factors for this disease in comparison populations.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is an autoimmune disease that shows one of the highest mortality rates among rheumatic diseases. We perform a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), and meta-analysis with previous GWASs, in 26,679 individuals and identify 27 independent genome-wide associated signals, including 13 new risk loci. The novel associations nearly double the number of genome-wide hits reported for SSc thus far. We define 95% credible sets of less than 5 likely causal variants in 12 loci. Additionally, we identify specific SSc subtype-associated signals. Functional analysis of high-priority variants shows the potential function of SSc signals, with the identification of 43 robust target genes through HiChIP. Our results point towards molecular pathways potentially involved in vasculopathy and fibrosis, two main hallmarks in SSc, and highlight the spectrum of critical cell types for the disease. This work supports a better understanding of the genetic basis of SSc and provides directions for future functional experiments.

Introduction: The objective of the present study was to examine the association of baseline demographic and clinical characteristics with sequentially obtained measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC), expressed as a percentage of the predicted value, and to identify predictors of the decline rate in FVC over time in the Genetics versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcome Study (GENISOS). Methods: To date, 266 patients have been enrolled in GENISOS, a prospective, observational cohort of patients with early systemic sclerosis. In addition to pulmonary function tests (PFTs), clinical and laboratory data were obtained from each patient. We analyzed 926 FVC measurements utilizing generalized linear mixed models. The predictive significance of baseline variables for the decline rate in FVC was investigated by the interaction term between the variable and the follow-up time within the first 3 years after enrollment as well as throughout the entire follow-up time. Results: The cohort consisted of 125 white, 54 African American, and 77 Hispanic patients with average disease duration of 2.5 years at enrollment. The mean follow-up time was 3.8 years, ranging up to 11.4 years. A number of baseline variables, including antibody status, African American ethnicity, disease type, baseline PFT values, modified Rodnan Skin Score, fibrosis on chest radiograph, and lung and skin subscores of the Severity Index, were associated with serially measured FVC levels. However, only the presence of anti-topoisomerase I antibodies (ATA) was associated with lower FVC levels (P < 0.001) as well as accelerated decline rate in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up (P = 0.02). None of the baseline variables predicted the rate of decline in FVC on long-term follow-up. Patients with rapidly progressive ILD, however, were under-represented in the long-term follow-up group because the accelerated rate of decline in FVC was associated with poor survival (P = 0.001). Conclusions: Presence of ATA was the only baseline variable associated with differential FVC levels, predicting the rate of decline in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up. The association of faster decline in FVC with poor survival further emphasizes the need for identification of predictive biomarkers by collection of genetic information and serial blood samples in cohort studies.