Tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption are well‐established risk factors for head and neck cancer. The prognostic role of smoking and alcohol intake at diagnosis have been less well studied. We analysed 1,393 people prospectively enrolled into the Head and Neck 5000 study (oral cavity cancer, n=403; oropharyngeal cancer, n=660; laryngeal cancer, n=330) and followed up for a median of 3.5 years. The primary outcome was all‐cause mortality. We used Cox proportional hazard models to derive minimally adjusted (age and gender) and fully adjusted (age, gender, ethnicity, stage, comorbidity, body mass index, HPV status, treatment, education, deprivation index, income, marital status, and either smoking or alcohol use) mortality hazard ratios (HR) for the effects of smoking status and alcohol intake at diagnosis. Models were stratified by cancer site, stage and HPV status. The fully‐adjusted HR for current versus never‐smokers was 1.7 overall (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1, 2.6). In stratified analyses, associations of smoking with mortality were observed for oropharyngeal and laryngeal cancers (fully adjusted HRs for current smokers: 1.8 (95% CI=0.9, 3.40 and 2.3 (95% CI=0.8, 6.4)). We found no evidence that people who drank hazardous to harmful amounts of alcohol at diagnosis had a higher mortality risk compared to non‐drinkers (HR=1.2 (95% CI=0.9, 1.6)). There was no strong evidence that HPV status or tumour stage modified the association of smoking with survival. Smoking status at the time of a head and neck cancer diagnosis influenced all‐cause mortality in models adjusted for important prognostic factors.

Background: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed “epigenetic age acceleration”, has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration ( IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum ), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration ( EEAA ), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation ( AgeAccelPheno ), one optimised to predict lifespan ( AgeAccelGrim ) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality ( ZhangScore ). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer ( n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. Results: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069). Conclusion: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

Lycopene and green tea consumption have been observationally associated with reduced prostate cancer risk, but the underlying mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. We investigated the effect of factorial randomisation to a 6‐month lycopene and green tea dietary advice or supplementation intervention on 159 serum metabolite measures in 128 men with raised PSA levels (but prostate cancer‐free), analysed by intention‐to‐treat. The causal effects of metabolites modified by the intervention on prostate cancer risk were then assessed by Mendelian randomisation, using summary statistics from 44,825 prostate cancer cases and 27,904 controls. The systemic effects of lycopene and green tea supplementation on serum metabolic profile were comparable to the effects of the respective dietary advice interventions (R² = 0.65 and 0.76 for lycopene and green tea respectively). Metabolites which were altered in response to lycopene supplementation were acetate [β (standard deviation difference vs. placebo): 0.69; 95% CI = 0.24, 1.15; p = 0.003], valine (β: −0.62; −1.03, −0.02; p = 0.004), pyruvate (β: −0.56; −0.95, −0.16; p = 0.006) and docosahexaenoic acid (β: −0.50; −085, −0.14; p = 0.006). Valine and diacylglycerol were lower in the lycopene dietary advice group (β: −0.65; −1.04, −0.26; p = 0.001 and β: −0.59; −1.01, −0.18; p = 0.006). A genetically instrumented SD increase in pyruvate increased the odds of prostate cancer by 1.29 (1.03, 1.62; p = 0.027). An intervention to increase lycopene intake altered the serum metabolome of men at risk of prostate cancer. Lycopene lowered levels of pyruvate, which our Mendelian randomisation analysis suggests may be causally related to reduced prostate cancer risk.

Objective Using meta-regression this paper sets out the minimum change in body mass index-SD score (BMI-SDS) required to improve adiposity as percentage body fat for children and adolescents with obesity. Design Meta-regression. Setting Studies were identified as part of a large-scale systematic review of the following electronic databases: AMED, Embase, MEDLINE via OVID, Web of Science and CENTRAL via Cochrane library. Participants Individuals aged 4–19 years with a diagnosis of obesity according to defined BMI thresholds. Interventions Studies of lifestyle treatment interventions that included dietary, physical activity and/or behavioural components with the objective of reducing obesity were included. Interventions of <2 weeks duration and those that involved surgical and/or pharmacological components (eg, bariatric surgery, drug therapy) were excluded. Primary and secondary outcome measures To be included in the review, studies had to report baseline and post-intervention BMI-SDS or change measurements (primary outcome measures) plus one or more of the following markers of metabolic health (secondary outcome measures): adiposity measures other than BMI; blood pressure; glucose; inflammation; insulin sensitivity/resistance; lipid profile; liver function. This paper focuses on adiposity measures only. Further papers in this series will report on other outcome measures. Results This paper explores the potential impact of BMI-SDS reduction in terms of change in percentage body fat. Thirty-nine studies reporting change in mean percentage body fat were analysed. Meta-regression demonstrated that reduction of at least 0.6 in mean BMI-SDS ensured a mean reduction of percentage body fat mass, in the sense that the associated 95% prediction interval for change in mean percentage body fat was wholly negative. Conclusions Interventions demonstrating reductions of 0.6 BMI-SDS might be termed successful in reducing adiposity, a key purpose of weight management interventions. Trial registration number CRD42016025317.

Hip shape is thought to be an important causal risk factor for hip osteoarthritis and fracture. We aimed to identify genetic determinants of hip shape and use these to assess causal relationships with hip osteoarthritis. Statistical hip shape modelling was used to derive 10 hip shape modes (HSMs) from DXA images in UK Biobank and Shanghai Changfeng cohorts (n_total = 43 485). Genome-wide association study meta-analyses were conducted for each HSM. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) was used to estimate causal effects between HSM and hip osteoarthritis using hip fracture as a positive control. Analysis of the first 10 HSMs identified 203 independent association signals (P < 5 × 10⁻⁹). Hip shape SNPs were also associated (P < 2.5 × 10⁻⁴) with hip osteoarthritis (n = 26) and hip fracture (n = 4). Fine mapping implicated SMAD3 and PLEC as candidate genes that may be involved in the development of hip shape and hip osteoarthritis. MR analyses suggested there was no causal effect between any HSM and hip osteoarthritis, however there was evidence that HSM2 (more obtuse neck-shaft angle) and HSM4 (wider femoral neck) have a causal effect on hip fracture (OR_IVW method 1.27 [95% CI 1.12–1.44], P = 1.79 × 10⁻⁴ and OR_IVW 0.74 [0.65–0.84], P = 7.60 × 10⁻⁶ respectively). We report the largest hip shape GWAS meta-analysis that identifies hundreds of novel loci, some of which are also associated with hip osteoarthritis and hip fracture. MR analyses suggest hip shape may not cause hip osteoarthritis but is implicated in hip fractures. Consequently, interventions targeting hip shape in older adults to prevent hip osteoarthritis may prove ineffective.