Background: The Surprise Question (SQ) identifies patients with palliative care needs. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO^© (NECPAL) tool combines the Surprise Question with additional clinical parameters for a more comprehensive assessment. The capacity of these screening tools to predict mortality is still unknown. Aim: To explore the predictive validity of the NECPAL and SQ to determine 12- to 24-month mortality. Design: Longitudinal, prospective and observational cohort study. Setting/participants: Three primary care centres, one general hospital, one intermediate care centre, and four nursing homes. Population cohort with advanced chronic conditions and limited life prognosis. Patients were classified according to SQ and NECPAL criteria and followed for 24 months. Results: Data available to assess 1059 of 1064 recruited patients (99.6%) at 12 and 24 months: 837 patients were SQ+ and 780 were NECPAL+. Mortality rates at 24 months were as follows: 44.6% (SQ+) versus 15.8% (SQ−) and 45.8% (NECPAL+) versus 18.3% (NECPAL−) ( p = 0.000). SQ+ and NECPAL+ identification was significantly correlated with 24-month mortality risk (hazard ratios: 2.719 and 2.398, respectively). Both tools were highly sensitive (91.4, CI: 88.7–94.1 and 87.5, CI: 84.3–90.7) with high negative predictive values (84.2, CI: 79.4–89.0 and 81.7, CI: 77.2–86.2), with low specificity and positive predictive value. The prognostic accuracy of SQ and NECPAL was 52.9% and 55.2%, respectively. The predictive validity was slightly better for NECPAL. Conclusion: SQ and NECPAL are valuable screening instruments to identify patients with limited life prognosis who may require palliative care. More research is needed to increase its prognostic utility in combination with other parameters.

We describe conceptual innovations in palliative care epidemiology and the methods to identify patients in need of palliative care, in all settings.In middle-high-income countries, more than 75% of the population will die from chronic progressive diseases. Around 1.2-1.4% of such populations suffer from chronic advanced conditions, with limited life expectancy. Clinical status deteriorates progressively with frequent crises of needs, high social impact, and high use of costly healthcare resources. The innovative concept of patients with advanced chronic diseases and limited life prognosis has been addressed recently, and several methods to identify them have been developed. The challenges are to promote early and shared interventions, extended to all patients in need, in all settings of the social care and healthcare systems; to design and develop Palliative Care Programmes with a Public Health perspective. The first action is to identify, using the appropriate tools early in the clinical evolution of the disease, all patients in need of palliative care in all settings of care, especially in primary care services, nursing homes, and healthcare services responsible for care provision for these patients; to promote appropriate care in patients with advanced diseases with prognosis of poor survival.