This paper, developed under the framework of the RECCAP initiative, aims at providing improved estimates of the carbon and GHG (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) balance of continental Africa. The various components and processes of the African carbon and GHG budget are considered, existing data reviewed, and new data from different methodologies (inventories, ecosystem flux measurements, models, and atmospheric inversions) presented. Uncertainties are quantified and current gaps and weaknesses in knowledge and monitoring systems described in order to guide future requirements. The majority of results agree that Africa is a small sink of carbon on an annual scale, with an average value of −0.61 ± 0.58 Pg C yr⁻¹. Nevertheless, the emissions of CH₄ and N₂O may turn Africa into a net source of radiative forcing in CO₂ equivalent terms. At sub-regional level, there is significant spatial variability in both sources and sinks, due to the diversity of biomes represented and differences in the degree of anthropic impacts. Southern Africa is the main source region; while central Africa, with its evergreen tropical forests, is the main sink. Emissions from land-use change in Africa are significant (around 0.32 ± 0.05 Pg C yr⁻¹), even higher than the fossil fuel emissions: this is a unique feature among all the continents. There could be significant carbon losses from forest land even without deforestation, resulting from the impact of selective logging. Fires play a significant role in the African carbon cycle, with 1.03 ± 0.22 Pg C yr⁻¹ of carbon emissions, and 90% originating in savannas and dry woodlands. A large portion of the wild fire emissions are compensated by CO₂ uptake during the growing season, but an uncertain fraction of the emission from wood harvested for domestic use is not. Most of these fluxes have large interannual variability, on the order of ±0.5 Pg C yr⁻¹ in standard deviation, accounting for around 25% of the year-to-year variation in the global carbon budget. Despite the high uncertainty, the estimates provided in this paper show the important role that Africa plays in the global carbon cycle, both in terms of absolute contribution, and as a key source of interannual variability.

Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process‐based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO₂ concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological‐climate‐induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest‐based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.

This study gives an outlook on the carbon balance of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by presenting a summary of currently available results from the project CarboAfrica (namely net ecosystem productivity and emissions from fires, deforestation and forest degradation, by field and model estimates) supplemented by bibliographic data and compared with a new synthesis of the data from national communications to UNFCCC. According to these preliminary estimates the biogenic carbon balance of SSA varies from 0.16 Pg C y⁻¹ to a much higher sink of 1.00 Pg C y⁻¹ (depending on the source data). Models estimates would give an unrealistic sink of 3.23 Pg C y⁻¹, confirming their current inadequacy when applied to Africa. The carbon uptake by forests and savannas (0.34 and 1.89 Pg C y⁻¹, respectively,) are the main contributors to the resulting sink. Fires (0.72 Pg C y⁻¹) and deforestation (0.25 Pg C y⁻¹) are the main contributors to the SSA carbon emissions, while the agricultural sector and forest degradation contributes only with 0.12 and 0.08 Pg C y⁻¹, respectively. Savannas play a major role in shaping the SSA carbon balance, due to their large extension, their fire regime, and their strong interannual NEP variability, but they are also a major uncertainty in the overall budget. Even if fossil fuel emissions from SSA are relative low, they can be crucial in defining the sign of the overall SSA carbon balance by reducing the natural sink potential, especially in the future. This paper shows that Africa plays a key role in the global carbon cycle system and probably could have a potential for carbon sequestration higher than expected, even if still highly uncertain. Further investigations are needed, particularly to better address the role of savannas and tropical forests and to improve biogeochemical models. The CarboAfrica network of carbon measurements could provide future unique data sets for better estimating the African carbon balance.

Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water and carbon budgets. Forest age distribution is determined by the interplay of tree mortality and regeneration, influenced by both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Unfortunately, human-driven alteration of tree age distribution presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing forest stability and resilience. In our study, we investigated how age impacts the stability and resilience of the forest carbon budget under both current and future climate conditions. We employed a state-of-the-science biogeochemical, biophysical, validated process-based model on historically managed forest stands, projecting their future as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at their natural evolution with no management interventions (i.e., forests are left to develop undisturbed). Such a model, forced by climate data from five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios and one baseline scenario to disentangle the effect of climate change, spanned several age classes as representative of the current European forests' context, for each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in the young and middle-aged classes (16- to 50-year-old), aligning with longstanding ecological theories, regardless of the climate scenario. Under climate change, the beech forest exhibited an increase in NPP and maintained stability across all age classes, while resilience remained constant with rising atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures. However, NPP declined under climate change scenarios for the Norway spruce and Scots pine sites. In these coniferous forests, stability and resilience were more influenced. These results underscore the necessity of accounting for age class diversity -lacking in most, if not all, the current Global Vegetation Models - for reliable and robust assessments of the impacts of climate change on future forests' stability and resilience capacity. We, therefore, advocate for customized management strategies that enhance the adaptability of forests to changing climatic conditions, taking into account the diverse responses of different species and age groups to climate.