The largest output fluctuation is an index used to quantify the disturbance of a power grid caused by wind power plants and photovoltaic power generation systems connected to it. In order to develop its estimation method, we investigate the relationship between the largest output fluctuation and the standard deviation of a newly proposed random variable generated by differencing the output variation of photovoltaic power generation systems. Output fluctuation coefficients are defined and estimated using measured data of photovoltaic power generation systems located at 52 places. An approximation equation is presented to predict geographical correlations between the proposed random variables for photovoltaic power systems by using the distances between their locations. Finally, it is shown that the largest output fluctuation of many photovoltaic power generation systems dispersed in a wide area is predictable by using the output fluctuation coefficients and the equation approximating the geographical correlations of output fluctuations. ©2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 166(4): 9–19, 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20723