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Resilience was compared for alternate states of phytoplankton pigment concentration in two multiyear whole-lake experiments designed to shift the manipulated ecosystem between alternate states. Mean exit time, the average time between threshold crossings, was calculated from automated measurements every 5 min during summer stratification. Alternate states were clearly identified, and equilibria showed narrow variation in bootstrap analysis of uncertainty. Mean exit times ranged from 13 to 290 h. In the reference ecosystem, Paul Lake, mean exit time of the low-pigment state was about 100 h longer than mean exit time of the high-pigment state. In the manipulated ecosystem, Peter Lake, mean exit time of the high-pigment state exceeded that of the low-pigment state by 30 h in the cascade experiment. In the enrichment experiment mean exit time of the low-pigment state was longer than that of the high-pigment state by about 100 h. Mean exit time is a useful measure of resilience for stochastic ecosystems where high-frequency measurements are made by consistent methods over the full range of ecosystem states.
Stephen R. Carpenter; Babak M.S. Arani; Egbert H. Van Nes; Marten Scheffer; Michael L. Pace. Resilience of phytoplankton dynamics to trophic cascades and nutrient enrichment. Limnology and Oceanography 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleStephen R. Carpenter, Babak M.S. Arani, Egbert H. Van Nes, Marten Scheffer, Michael L. Pace. Resilience of phytoplankton dynamics to trophic cascades and nutrient enrichment. Limnology and Oceanography. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen R. Carpenter; Babak M.S. Arani; Egbert H. Van Nes; Marten Scheffer; Michael L. Pace. 2021. "Resilience of phytoplankton dynamics to trophic cascades and nutrient enrichment." Limnology and Oceanography , no. : 1.
Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available.
Babak M. S. Arani; Stephen R. Carpenter; Leo Lahti; Egbert H. van Nes; Marten Scheffer. Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience. Science 2021, 372, eaay4895 .
AMA StyleBabak M. S. Arani, Stephen R. Carpenter, Leo Lahti, Egbert H. van Nes, Marten Scheffer. Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience. Science. 2021; 372 (6547):eaay4895.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBabak M. S. Arani; Stephen R. Carpenter; Leo Lahti; Egbert H. van Nes; Marten Scheffer. 2021. "Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience." Science 372, no. 6547: eaay4895.
Ecosystems are changing in complex and unpredictable ways, and analysis of these changes is facilitated by coordinated, long-term research. Meeting diverse societal needs requires an understanding of what populations and communities will be dominant in 20, 50, and 100 yr. This paper is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the LTER core research area of populations and communities. This analysis revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling story about what their site would look like in 50 or 100 yr. As the stories were prepared, themes emerged, and the stories were grouped into papers along five themes for this special issue: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the resilience theme and includes stories from the Baltimore (urban), Hubbard Brook (northern hardwood forest), Andrews (temperate rain forest), Moorea (coral reef), Cedar Creek (grassland), and North Temperate Lakes (lakes) sites. The concept of resilience (the capacity of a system to maintain structure and processes in the face of disturbance) is an old topic that has seen a resurgence of interest as the nature and extent of global environmental change have intensified. The stories we present here show the power of long-term manipulation experiments (Cedar Creek), the value of long-term monitoring of forests in both natural (Andrews, Hubbard Brook) and urban settings (Baltimore), and insights that can be gained from modeling and/or experimental approaches paired with long-term observations (North Temperate Lakes, Moorea). Three main conclusions emerge from the analysis: (1) Resilience research has matured over the past 40 yr of the LTER program; (2) there are many examples of high resilience among the ecosystems in the LTER network; (3) there are also many warning signs of declining resilience of the ecosystems we study. These stories highlight the need for long-term studies to address this complex topic and show how the diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about this important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.
Jane Cowles; Laura Templeton; John J. Battles; Peter J. Edmunds; Robert C. Carpenter; Stephen R. Carpenter; Michael Paul Nelson; Natalie L. Cleavitt; Timothy J. Fahey; Peter M. Groffman; Joe H. Sullivan; Maile C. Neel; Gretchen J. A. Hansen; Sarah Hobbie; Sally J. Holbrook; Clare E. Kazanski; Eric W. Seabloom; Russell J. Schmitt; Emily H. Stanley; Alan J. Tepley; Natalie S. van Doorn; Jake M. Vander Zanden. Resilience: insights from the U.S. LongTerm Ecological Research Network. Ecosphere 2021, 12, e03434 .
AMA StyleJane Cowles, Laura Templeton, John J. Battles, Peter J. Edmunds, Robert C. Carpenter, Stephen R. Carpenter, Michael Paul Nelson, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Timothy J. Fahey, Peter M. Groffman, Joe H. Sullivan, Maile C. Neel, Gretchen J. A. Hansen, Sarah Hobbie, Sally J. Holbrook, Clare E. Kazanski, Eric W. Seabloom, Russell J. Schmitt, Emily H. Stanley, Alan J. Tepley, Natalie S. van Doorn, Jake M. Vander Zanden. Resilience: insights from the U.S. LongTerm Ecological Research Network. Ecosphere. 2021; 12 (5):e03434.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJane Cowles; Laura Templeton; John J. Battles; Peter J. Edmunds; Robert C. Carpenter; Stephen R. Carpenter; Michael Paul Nelson; Natalie L. Cleavitt; Timothy J. Fahey; Peter M. Groffman; Joe H. Sullivan; Maile C. Neel; Gretchen J. A. Hansen; Sarah Hobbie; Sally J. Holbrook; Clare E. Kazanski; Eric W. Seabloom; Russell J. Schmitt; Emily H. Stanley; Alan J. Tepley; Natalie S. van Doorn; Jake M. Vander Zanden. 2021. "Resilience: insights from the U.S. LongTerm Ecological Research Network." Ecosphere 12, no. 5: e03434.
Lake respiration is supported by a mixture of autochthonous and allochthonous resources, but the relative significance and interaction of these sources are uncertain across gradients of primary production and organic matter inputs. We manipulated autochthonous resources by adding inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus to two lakes during three summers and monitored a third reference lake. Allochthonous resources were measured as fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM). In the reference and two experimental lakes, daily estimates of respiration were made from continuously deployed oxygen sensors. Daily mean values of temperature and FDOM were determined from high‐frequency measurements along with daily measures of chlorophyll a, an index of phytoplankton biomass. We analyzed time series of respiration and tested models that used combinations of the independent variables chlorophyll, FDOM, and temperature. The best models included all three of the independent variables. Respiration increased twofold over the temperature range of 14.5–28.6°C. Respiration increased in association with phytoplankton blooms caused by the nutrient additions, but did not track blooms closely, because of large day‐to‐day variability. Respiration varied positively with FDOM that was primarily allochthonous and differed among lakes and years. We did not detect an interaction between chlorophyll and FDOM despite the large number of observations and range of chlorophyll and FDOM. Hydrologic, climatic, and land use changes are altering temperature and inputs of nutrients and organic matter to lakes. Our results indicate that these changes may lead to linear responses in ecosystem processes like respiration for the wide range of inputs represented in this study.
Michael L. Pace; Cal D. Buelo; Stephen R. Carpenter. Phytoplankton biomass, dissolved organic matter, and temperature drive respiration in whole lake nutrient additions. Limnology and Oceanography 2021, 66, 2174 -2186.
AMA StyleMichael L. Pace, Cal D. Buelo, Stephen R. Carpenter. Phytoplankton biomass, dissolved organic matter, and temperature drive respiration in whole lake nutrient additions. Limnology and Oceanography. 2021; 66 (6):2174-2186.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichael L. Pace; Cal D. Buelo; Stephen R. Carpenter. 2021. "Phytoplankton biomass, dissolved organic matter, and temperature drive respiration in whole lake nutrient additions." Limnology and Oceanography 66, no. 6: 2174-2186.
Carl Folke; Stephen Carpenter; Thomas Elmqvist; Lance Gunderson; Brian Walker. Resilience: Now more than ever. Ambio 2021, 1 -4.
AMA StyleCarl Folke, Stephen Carpenter, Thomas Elmqvist, Lance Gunderson, Brian Walker. Resilience: Now more than ever. Ambio. 2021; ():1-4.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarl Folke; Stephen Carpenter; Thomas Elmqvist; Lance Gunderson; Brian Walker. 2021. "Resilience: Now more than ever." Ambio , no. : 1-4.
Readers of BioScience know that society is consuming resources—fossil energy, minerals, freshwater, and living resources of the land and oceans—at the fastest rate in the history of our species. If the current trends continue, children born today will experience more warming that any generation since the emergence of the first civilizations. Billions of people will have to migrate away from homelands that have become hotter than the Sahara Desert or that are flooded by rising seas (Xu et al. 2020). By taking aggressive action now, using known practices and technology, these disasters can be avoided.
Stephen R Carpenter. How We Can Advance Ecosystem Stewardship. BioScience 2020, 71, 102 -102.
AMA StyleStephen R Carpenter. How We Can Advance Ecosystem Stewardship. BioScience. 2020; 71 (1):102-102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen R Carpenter. 2020. "How We Can Advance Ecosystem Stewardship." BioScience 71, no. 1: 102-102.
Although climate change has shifted the phenological timing of plankton in lakes, few studies have explicitly addressed the relative contributions of climate change and other factors, including planktivory and nutrient availability. The spring clear‐water phase is a period of marked reduction in algal biomass and increased water transparency observed in many lakes. Here, we quantified the phenological patterns in the start date, maximum date, duration, and magnitude of the clear‐water phase over 38 yr in Lakes Mendota and Monona, and examined the effects of water temperature, total phosphorus, and food web structure (proportion of large‐bodied Daphnia pulicaria and density of invasive Bythotrephes) and interactions between temperature and other predictors on these clear‐water phase metrics. We found that climate and food web structure affected the clear‐water phase, but the effects differed among the metrics. Higher water temperature led to earlier clear‐water phase start dates and maximum dates in both lakes. The proportion of D. pulicaria affected all clear‐water phase metrics in both lakes. When D. pulicaria proportion was higher, the clear‐water phase occurred earlier, lasted longer, and the water was clearer. Moreover, high Bythotrephes density delayed clear‐water phase start dates (both lakes), and decreased clear‐water phase duration (Lake Mendota) in the following year. These results suggest that variation in food web structure changes the full phenological dynamics of the clear‐water phase, while variation in climate condition affects clear‐water phase timing only. Our findings highlight the importance of large‐bodied grazers for managing water quality under climate change.
Shin‐Ichiro S. Matsuzaki; Richard C. Lathrop; Stephen R. Carpenter; Jake R. Walsh; M. Jake Vander Zanden; Mark R. Gahler; Emily H. Stanley. Climate and food web effects on the spring clear‐water phase in two north‐temperate eutrophic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 2020, 66, 30 -46.
AMA StyleShin‐Ichiro S. Matsuzaki, Richard C. Lathrop, Stephen R. Carpenter, Jake R. Walsh, M. Jake Vander Zanden, Mark R. Gahler, Emily H. Stanley. Climate and food web effects on the spring clear‐water phase in two north‐temperate eutrophic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography. 2020; 66 (1):30-46.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShin‐Ichiro S. Matsuzaki; Richard C. Lathrop; Stephen R. Carpenter; Jake R. Walsh; M. Jake Vander Zanden; Mark R. Gahler; Emily H. Stanley. 2020. "Climate and food web effects on the spring clear‐water phase in two north‐temperate eutrophic lakes." Limnology and Oceanography 66, no. 1: 30-46.
We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household’s decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin,Science162, 1243–1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people “abandoning the freedom to breed.” That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
Scott Barrett; Aisha Dasgupta; Partha Dasgupta; W. Neil Adger; John Anderies; Jeroen Van Den Bergh; Caroline Bledsoe; John Bongaarts; Stephen Carpenter; F. Stuart Chapin; Anne-Sophie Crépin; Gretchen Daily; Paul Ehrlich; Carl Folke; Nils Kautsky; Eric F. Lambin; Simon Levin; Karl-Göran Mäler; Rosamond Naylor; Karine Nyborg; Stephen Polasky; Marten Scheffer; Jason Shogren; Peter Søgaard Jørgensen; Brian Walker; James Wilen. Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2020, 117, 6300 -6307.
AMA StyleScott Barrett, Aisha Dasgupta, Partha Dasgupta, W. Neil Adger, John Anderies, Jeroen Van Den Bergh, Caroline Bledsoe, John Bongaarts, Stephen Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Gretchen Daily, Paul Ehrlich, Carl Folke, Nils Kautsky, Eric F. Lambin, Simon Levin, Karl-Göran Mäler, Rosamond Naylor, Karine Nyborg, Stephen Polasky, Marten Scheffer, Jason Shogren, Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Brian Walker, James Wilen. Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020; 117 (12):6300-6307.
Chicago/Turabian StyleScott Barrett; Aisha Dasgupta; Partha Dasgupta; W. Neil Adger; John Anderies; Jeroen Van Den Bergh; Caroline Bledsoe; John Bongaarts; Stephen Carpenter; F. Stuart Chapin; Anne-Sophie Crépin; Gretchen Daily; Paul Ehrlich; Carl Folke; Nils Kautsky; Eric F. Lambin; Simon Levin; Karl-Göran Mäler; Rosamond Naylor; Karine Nyborg; Stephen Polasky; Marten Scheffer; Jason Shogren; Peter Søgaard Jørgensen; Brian Walker; James Wilen. 2020. "Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 12: 6300-6307.
Correspondence to Carl Folke. The authors declare no competing interests. Reprints and Permissions Folke, C., Österblom, H., Jouffray, J. et al. An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere. Nat Ecol Evol (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1145-2 Download citation Published: 28 February 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1145-2
Carl Folke; Henrik Österblom; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Eric F. Lambin; W. Neil Adger; Marten Scheffer; Beatrice I. Crona; Magnus Nyström; Simon Levin; Stephen R. Carpenter; John M. Anderies; Stuart Chapin; Anne-Sophie Crépin; Alice Dauriach; Victor Galaz; Line J. Gordon; Nils Kautsky; Brian H. Walker; James R. Watson; James Wilen; Aart De Zeeuw. An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere. Nature Ecology & Evolution 2020, 4, 494 -494.
AMA StyleCarl Folke, Henrik Österblom, Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, Eric F. Lambin, W. Neil Adger, Marten Scheffer, Beatrice I. Crona, Magnus Nyström, Simon Levin, Stephen R. Carpenter, John M. Anderies, Stuart Chapin, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Alice Dauriach, Victor Galaz, Line J. Gordon, Nils Kautsky, Brian H. Walker, James R. Watson, James Wilen, Aart De Zeeuw. An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2020; 4 (4):494-494.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarl Folke; Henrik Österblom; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Eric F. Lambin; W. Neil Adger; Marten Scheffer; Beatrice I. Crona; Magnus Nyström; Simon Levin; Stephen R. Carpenter; John M. Anderies; Stuart Chapin; Anne-Sophie Crépin; Alice Dauriach; Victor Galaz; Line J. Gordon; Nils Kautsky; Brian H. Walker; James R. Watson; James Wilen; Aart De Zeeuw. 2020. "An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere." Nature Ecology & Evolution 4, no. 4: 494-494.
Concentrations of phycocyanin, a pigment of Cyanobacteria, were measured at 1‐min intervals during the ice‐free seasons of 2008–2018 by automated sensors suspended from a buoy at a central station in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, U.S.A. In each year, stochastic‐dynamic models fitted to time series of log‐transformed phycocyanin concentration revealed two alternative stable states and random factors that were much larger than the difference between the alternate stable states. Transitions between low and high states were abrupt and apparently driven by stochasticity. Variation in annual magnitudes of the alternate states and the stochastic factors were not correlated with annual phosphorus input to the lake. At daily time scales, however, phycocyanin concentration was correlated with phosphorus input, precipitation, and wind velocity for time lags of 1–15 d. Multiple years of high‐frequency data were needed to discern these patterns in the noise‐dominated dynamics of Cyanobacteria.
Stephen R. Carpenter; Babak M. S. Arani; Paul C. Hanson; Marten Scheffer; Emily H. Stanley; Egbert Van Nes. Stochastic dynamics of Cyanobacteria in long‐term high‐frequency observations of a eutrophic lake. Limnology and Oceanography Letters 2020, 5, 331 -336.
AMA StyleStephen R. Carpenter, Babak M. S. Arani, Paul C. Hanson, Marten Scheffer, Emily H. Stanley, Egbert Van Nes. Stochastic dynamics of Cyanobacteria in long‐term high‐frequency observations of a eutrophic lake. Limnology and Oceanography Letters. 2020; 5 (5):331-336.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen R. Carpenter; Babak M. S. Arani; Paul C. Hanson; Marten Scheffer; Emily H. Stanley; Egbert Van Nes. 2020. "Stochastic dynamics of Cyanobacteria in long‐term high‐frequency observations of a eutrophic lake." Limnology and Oceanography Letters 5, no. 5: 331-336.
Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when ‘co-produced’ by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approaches. But definitions of knowledge co-production are diverse and often contradictory. We propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research. Using these principles, we offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success.
Albert V. Norström; Christopher Cvitanovic; Marie F. Löf; Simon West; Carina Wyborn; Patricia Balvanera; Angela T. Bednarek; Elena M. Bennett; Reinette Biggs; Ariane De Bremond; Bruce M. Campbell; Josep G. Canadell; Stephen R. Carpenter; Carl Folke; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Owen Gaffney; Stefan Gelcich; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Melissa Leach; Martin Le Tissier; Berta Martín-López; Elena Louder; Marie-France Loutre; Alison M. Meadow; Harini Nagendra; Davnah Payne; Garry D. Peterson; Belinda Reyers; Robert Scholes; Chinwe Ifejika Speranza; Marja Spierenburg; Mark Stafford Smith; Maria Tengö; Sandra Van Der Hel; Ingrid Van Putten; Henrik Österblom. Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research. Nature Sustainability 2020, 3, 182 -190.
AMA StyleAlbert V. Norström, Christopher Cvitanovic, Marie F. Löf, Simon West, Carina Wyborn, Patricia Balvanera, Angela T. Bednarek, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, Ariane De Bremond, Bruce M. Campbell, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Gelcich, Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, Melissa Leach, Martin Le Tissier, Berta Martín-López, Elena Louder, Marie-France Loutre, Alison M. Meadow, Harini Nagendra, Davnah Payne, Garry D. Peterson, Belinda Reyers, Robert Scholes, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza, Marja Spierenburg, Mark Stafford Smith, Maria Tengö, Sandra Van Der Hel, Ingrid Van Putten, Henrik Österblom. Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research. Nature Sustainability. 2020; 3 (3):182-190.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlbert V. Norström; Christopher Cvitanovic; Marie F. Löf; Simon West; Carina Wyborn; Patricia Balvanera; Angela T. Bednarek; Elena M. Bennett; Reinette Biggs; Ariane De Bremond; Bruce M. Campbell; Josep G. Canadell; Stephen R. Carpenter; Carl Folke; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Owen Gaffney; Stefan Gelcich; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Melissa Leach; Martin Le Tissier; Berta Martín-López; Elena Louder; Marie-France Loutre; Alison M. Meadow; Harini Nagendra; Davnah Payne; Garry D. Peterson; Belinda Reyers; Robert Scholes; Chinwe Ifejika Speranza; Marja Spierenburg; Mark Stafford Smith; Maria Tengö; Sandra Van Der Hel; Ingrid Van Putten; Henrik Österblom. 2020. "Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research." Nature Sustainability 3, no. 3: 182-190.
The planetary boundary framework presents a ‘planetary dashboard’ of humanity’s globally aggregated performance on a set of environmental issues that endanger the Earth system’s capacity to support humanity. While this framework has been highly influential, a critical shortcoming for its application in sustainability governance is that it currently fails to represent how impacts related to one of the planetary boundaries affect the status of other planetary boundaries. Here, we surveyed and provisionally quantified interactions between the Earth system processes represented by the planetary boundaries and investigated their consequences for sustainability governance. We identified a dense network of interactions between the planetary boundaries. The resulting cascades and feedbacks predominantly amplify human impacts on the Earth system and thereby shrink the safe operating space for future human impacts on the Earth system. Our results show that an integrated understanding of Earth system dynamics is critical to navigating towards a sustainable future.
Steven J. Lade; Will Steffen; Wim de Vries; Stephen R. Carpenter; Jonathan F. Donges; Dieter Gerten; Holger Hoff; Tim Newbold; Katherine Richardson; Johan Rockström. Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability 2019, 3, 119 -128.
AMA StyleSteven J. Lade, Will Steffen, Wim de Vries, Stephen R. Carpenter, Jonathan F. Donges, Dieter Gerten, Holger Hoff, Tim Newbold, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström. Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability. 2019; 3 (2):119-128.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSteven J. Lade; Will Steffen; Wim de Vries; Stephen R. Carpenter; Jonathan F. Donges; Dieter Gerten; Holger Hoff; Tim Newbold; Katherine Richardson; Johan Rockström. 2019. "Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions." Nature Sustainability 3, no. 2: 119-128.
Recreational fisheries are valued at $190B globally and constitute the predominant way in which people use wild fish stocks in developed countries, with inland systems contributing the main fraction of recreational fisheries. Although inland recreational fisheries are thought to be highly resilient and self-regulating, the rapid pace of environmental change is increasing the vulnerability of these fisheries to overharvest and collapse. Here we directly evaluate angler harvest relative to the biomass production of individual stocks for a major inland recreational fishery. Using an extensive 28-y dataset of the walleye (Sander vitreus) fisheries in northern Wisconsin, United States, we compare empirical biomass harvest (Y) and calculated production (P) and biomass (B) for 390 lake year combinations. Production overharvest occurs when harvest exceeds production in that year. Biomass and biomass turnover (P/B) declined by ∼30 and ∼20%, respectively, over time, while biomass harvest did not change, causing overharvest to increase. Our analysis revealed that ∼40% of populations were production-overharvested, a rate >10× higher than estimates based on population thresholds often used by fisheries managers. Our study highlights the need to adapt harvest to changes in production due to environmental change.
Holly S. Embke; Andrew L. Rypel; Stephen R. Carpenter; Greg G. Sass; Derek Ogle; Thomas Cichosz; Joseph Hennessy; Timothy E. Essington; M. Jake Vander Zanden. Production dynamics reveal hidden overharvest of inland recreational fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2019, 116, 24676 -24681.
AMA StyleHolly S. Embke, Andrew L. Rypel, Stephen R. Carpenter, Greg G. Sass, Derek Ogle, Thomas Cichosz, Joseph Hennessy, Timothy E. Essington, M. Jake Vander Zanden. Production dynamics reveal hidden overharvest of inland recreational fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2019; 116 (49):24676-24681.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHolly S. Embke; Andrew L. Rypel; Stephen R. Carpenter; Greg G. Sass; Derek Ogle; Thomas Cichosz; Joseph Hennessy; Timothy E. Essington; M. Jake Vander Zanden. 2019. "Production dynamics reveal hidden overharvest of inland recreational fisheries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 49: 24676-24681.
Much of the Earth’s biosphere has been appropriated for the production of harvestable biomass in the form of food, fuel and fibre. Here we show that the simplification and intensification of these systems and their growing connection to international markets has yielded a global production ecosystem that is homogenous, highly connected and characterized by weakened internal feedbacks. We argue that these features converge to yield high and predictable supplies of biomass in the short term, but create conditions for novel and pervasive risks to emerge and interact in the longer term. Steering the global production ecosystem towards a sustainable trajectory will require the redirection of finance, increased transparency and traceability in supply chains, and the participation of a multitude of players, including integrated ‘keystone actors’ such as multinational corporations.
M. Nyström; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Albert Norström; B. Crona; Peter Søgaard Jørgensen; Stephen Carpenter; Örjan Bodin; Victor Galaz; C. Folke. Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem. Nature 2019, 575, 98 -108.
AMA StyleM. Nyström, Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, Albert Norström, B. Crona, Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Stephen Carpenter, Örjan Bodin, Victor Galaz, C. Folke. Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem. Nature. 2019; 575 (7781):98-108.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Nyström; Jean-Baptiste Jouffray; Albert Norström; B. Crona; Peter Søgaard Jørgensen; Stephen Carpenter; Örjan Bodin; Victor Galaz; C. Folke. 2019. "Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem." Nature 575, no. 7781: 98-108.
The ecologist C. S. Holling was a visionary of change in nature and society.
Stephen R. Carpenter; Garry Peterson. C. S. ‘Buzz’ Holling, 6 December 1930 – 16 August 2019. Nature Sustainability 2019, 2, 997 -998.
AMA StyleStephen R. Carpenter, Garry Peterson. C. S. ‘Buzz’ Holling, 6 December 1930 – 16 August 2019. Nature Sustainability. 2019; 2 (11):997-998.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen R. Carpenter; Garry Peterson. 2019. "C. S. ‘Buzz’ Holling, 6 December 1930 – 16 August 2019." Nature Sustainability 2, no. 11: 997-998.
Stephen Carpenter. 2020 Joint ASLO‐SFS Meeting in Madison, Wisconsin. Limnology and Oceanography Bulletin 2019, 28, 112 -112.
AMA StyleStephen Carpenter. 2020 Joint ASLO‐SFS Meeting in Madison, Wisconsin. Limnology and Oceanography Bulletin. 2019; 28 (3):112-112.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen Carpenter. 2019. "2020 Joint ASLO‐SFS Meeting in Madison, Wisconsin." Limnology and Oceanography Bulletin 28, no. 3: 112-112.
Successful management of natural resources requires local action that adapts to larger‐scale environmental changes in order to maintain populations within the safe operating space (SOS) of acceptable conditions. Here, we identify the boundaries of the SOS for a managed freshwater fishery in the first empirical test of the SOS concept applied to management of harvested resources. Walleye (Sander vitreus) are popular sport fish with declining populations in many North American lakes, and understanding the causes of and responding to these changes is a high priority for fisheries management. We evaluated the role of changing water clarity and temperature in the decline of a high‐profile walleye population in Mille Lacs, Minnesota, USA, and estimated safe harvest under changing conditions from 1987 to 2017. Thermal–optical habitat area (TOHA)—the proportion of lake area in which the optimal thermal and optical conditions for walleye overlap—was estimated using a thermodynamic simulation model of daily water temperatures and light conditions. We then used a SOS model to analyze how walleye carrying capacity and safe harvest relate to walleye thermal–optical habitat. Thermal–optical habitat area varied annually and declined over time due to increased water clarity, and maximum safe harvest estimated by the SOS model varied by nearly an order of magnitude. Maximum safe harvest levels of walleye declined with declining TOHA. Walleye harvest exceeded safe harvest estimated by the SOS model in 16 out of the 30 yr of our dataset, and walleye abundance declined following 14 of those years, suggesting that walleye harvest should be managed to accommodate changing habitat conditions. By quantifying harvest trade‐offs associated with loss of walleye habitat, this study provides a framework for managing walleye in the context of ecosystem change.
Gretchen J. A. Hansen; Luke A. Winslow; Jordan S. Read; Melissa Treml; Patrick J. Schmalz; Stephen Carpenter. Water clarity and temperature effects on walleye safe harvest: an empirical test of the safe operating space concept. Ecosphere 2019, 10, 1 .
AMA StyleGretchen J. A. Hansen, Luke A. Winslow, Jordan S. Read, Melissa Treml, Patrick J. Schmalz, Stephen Carpenter. Water clarity and temperature effects on walleye safe harvest: an empirical test of the safe operating space concept. Ecosphere. 2019; 10 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGretchen J. A. Hansen; Luke A. Winslow; Jordan S. Read; Melissa Treml; Patrick J. Schmalz; Stephen Carpenter. 2019. "Water clarity and temperature effects on walleye safe harvest: an empirical test of the safe operating space concept." Ecosphere 10, no. 5: 1.
Robert Arlinghaus; Joshua K. Abbott; Eli P. Fenichel; Stephen R. Carpenter; Len M. Hunt; Josep Alós; Thomas Klefoth; Steven J. Cooke; Ray Hilborn; Olaf P. Jensen; Michael Wilberg; John R. Post; Michael J. Manfredo. Opinion: Governing the recreational dimension of global fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2019, 116, 5209 -5213.
AMA StyleRobert Arlinghaus, Joshua K. Abbott, Eli P. Fenichel, Stephen R. Carpenter, Len M. Hunt, Josep Alós, Thomas Klefoth, Steven J. Cooke, Ray Hilborn, Olaf P. Jensen, Michael Wilberg, John R. Post, Michael J. Manfredo. Opinion: Governing the recreational dimension of global fisheries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2019; 116 (12):5209-5213.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert Arlinghaus; Joshua K. Abbott; Eli P. Fenichel; Stephen R. Carpenter; Len M. Hunt; Josep Alós; Thomas Klefoth; Steven J. Cooke; Ray Hilborn; Olaf P. Jensen; Michael Wilberg; John R. Post; Michael J. Manfredo. 2019. "Opinion: Governing the recreational dimension of global fisheries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 12: 5209-5213.
Stephen Polasky; Catherine L. Kling; Simon Levin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gretchen C. Daily; Paul R. Ehrlich; Geoffrey M. Heal; Jane Lubchenco. Role of economics in analyzing the environment and sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2019, 116, 5233 -5238.
AMA StyleStephen Polasky, Catherine L. Kling, Simon Levin, Stephen R. Carpenter, Gretchen C. Daily, Paul R. Ehrlich, Geoffrey M. Heal, Jane Lubchenco. Role of economics in analyzing the environment and sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2019; 116 (12):5233-5238.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen Polasky; Catherine L. Kling; Simon Levin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gretchen C. Daily; Paul R. Ehrlich; Geoffrey M. Heal; Jane Lubchenco. 2019. "Role of economics in analyzing the environment and sustainable development." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 12: 5233-5238.
We conducted a 33‐yr series of whole‐lake experiments to measure ecosystem responses to food web structure and nutrient load, compare aquatic and terrestrial carbon flows to consumers, and evaluate indicators of ecosystem resilience. These manipulations showed that chlorophyll responded to nutrient loading and to grazing controlled by a trophic cascade. In this article, we synthesized experimental results using a new analysis of heretofore unrecognized variation in water color, measured as light absorbance at 440 nm. Long‐term data revealed fluctuations in precipitation that drive water color variation. We compared effects of nutrient loading, zooplankton biomass, zooplankton body size, and water color on chlorophyll. Water color was an important factor in the chlorophyll response. This driver of the chlorophyll response to manipulation was not resolved until decades of data were available. A long‐term context enriched insights from ecosystem experiments and exemplified the complementarity of experimental and long‐term approaches in limnology.
Stephen R. Carpenter; Michael L. Pace. Synthesis of a 33-yr series of whole-lake experiments: Effects of nutrients, grazers, and precipitation-driven water color on chlorophyll. Limnology and Oceanography Letters 2018, 3, 419 -427.
AMA StyleStephen R. Carpenter, Michael L. Pace. Synthesis of a 33-yr series of whole-lake experiments: Effects of nutrients, grazers, and precipitation-driven water color on chlorophyll. Limnology and Oceanography Letters. 2018; 3 (6):419-427.
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephen R. Carpenter; Michael L. Pace. 2018. "Synthesis of a 33-yr series of whole-lake experiments: Effects of nutrients, grazers, and precipitation-driven water color on chlorophyll." Limnology and Oceanography Letters 3, no. 6: 419-427.