China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) is aimed at improving the fragile and unstable ecological environment and has become one of the largest ecological restoration programs in the world because of its enormous investment and effects. It is important to work out and strengthen new measures to overcome difficulties to promote more ecosystem services and human well‐being in the NFCP. This study focused on how to evaluate the ecosystem services change brought about by implementing the NFCP. Taking the key state‐owned forest areas in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia as the study area, we provide a basic overview of development and construct an evaluation index system and a distributed calculation method for the NFCP to analyze the implications of the NFCP on ecosystem services combined with multi‐source data coupling. An evaluation index system for NFCP ecosystem services was constructed. The system includes five ecological service functions and 12 evaluation indices. The trade‐off and/or synergistic analysis of ecosystem services were carried out. The regional characteristics and changes in the NFCP ecosystem services were emphasized. Although it has not been implemented for a long time, the NFCP has had a great impact on ecosystem services because it reduces soil and water losses, increases soil fertility, strengthens the forest carbon sink and helped the forest accumulate nutrients and purify the atmosphere. Socioeconomic factors affect the NFCP ecosystem services, such as the implementation area of NFCP, investment amount of NFCP, area ratio of nature reserves, and yield of tree stock volume. Policy drivers of the NFCP, changes in the economic structure and reductions in forest yield are the main factors affecting the change in NFCP ecosystem services. Although the NFCP has positively affected the society, the economy, and the ecological environment, it has also generated some problems, such as the improper management of forest resources, shortage of capital investment, staff transfer, etc. The social and economic problems will be transient with implementation of the NFCP, and the structural changes in forestry and agriculture may eventually benefit the forestry workers and other stakeholders.

The conflict between economic development and ecological protection continues to intensify, highlighting the necessity for constructing regional ecological security patterns (ESPs) to reconcile the relationship between development and protection effectively. This study used the GMOP and PLUS model to simulate future land use changes by 2030 under the following three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic development (ED). Employing the MSPA model and circuit theory, it identified ecological source areas and constructed the ESP for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) from 2000 to 2030. The results indicate that the proportion of ecological source areas increased from 22.24% in 2000 to 23.09% in 2020, the EP scenario showing the highest proportion of ecological source areas compared with the other two scenarios. These areas are densely distributed in the northern and western mountainous regions, with sparse distributions in the southern plains. The number of ecological corridors grew from 603 in 2000 to 616 in 2020, with the EP scenario having more corridors than the other two scenarios. From 2000 to 2030, corridors in the northern and western mountainous areas were denser, shorter, and more variable, while those in the southern plains were less dense, longer, and relatively stable. Over two decades, habitat areas for species in BTH increased, while landscape connectivity decreased. Compared with 2020 and the other two scenarios, the EP scenario saw an increase in habitat areas and improved landscape connectivity. The impact on ecological corridors and improvement areas primarily arose from a combination of socio-ecological drivers (e.g., elevation, slope, population), while the influence on restoration and key areas mainly stemmed from ecological factors (e.g., elevation, temperature, NDVI, precipitation). The findings demonstrate that distinguishing different geomorphological units to improve and restore the regional environment, while considering socio-ecological drivers, is crucial for restoring the overall ESP and landscape connectivity of BTH.

The spatial zoning of disaster-prone areas in mainland China presents a compelling yet complex challenge. Despite significant strides in disaster management and risk reduction, a comprehensive and region-specific disaster zoning that considers spatial contiguity remains largely unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap by applying and comparing four clustering methods: k -means, spatially constrained k -means, k -means++, and spatially constrained k -means++. These methods were evaluated based on their ability to categorize regions by the extent of areas affected by five major disaster types: floods, droughts, low temperatures, typhoons, and hailstorms. The spatially constrained k -means++ algorithm emerged as the most effective, as it addressed spatial discontinuity inherent in disaster zoning and mitigated the initial value problem linked to traditional k -means methods. Using this approach, mainland China was divided into four distinct disaster-prone clusters. Cluster 1, encompassing 25 provinces, exhibited a complex and overlapping hazard profile, while Clusters 2 and 3 (Hebei–Jilin–Xinjiang and Jiangxi–Hubei, respectively) reflected more specific regional disaster patterns. Hainan formed an independent cluster because of its unique typhoon dominance. These spatially coherent zoning results provide a robust foundation for developing differentiated disaster management strategies, from integrated approaches in multi-disaster regions to specialized interventions in areas facing dominant threats.