Although local spatiotemporal analysis can improve understanding of geographic variation of the HIV epidemic, its drivers, and the search for targeted interventions, it is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite recent declines, Malawi’s estimated 10.0% HIV prevalence (2011) remained among the highest globally. Using data on pregnant women in Malawi, this study 1) examines spatiotemporal trends in HIV prevalence 1994-2010, and 2) for 2010, identifies and maps the spatial variation/clustering of factors associated with HIV prevalence at district level.

A lack of systematic understanding of the elements that determine the success of forest and landscape restoration (FLR) investments leads to the inability to clearly articulate strategic and practical approaches to support natural resource restoration endeavors across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This review examines the different challenges and opportunities for effective restoration interventions. Using a structured literature review, we draw evidence from a broad range of scholarly works on natural resource conservation and governance to investigate the early dynamics of FLR in SSA. We first engage in a contextual clarification of FLR concepts and then provide a synthesis of the factors that influence the results of FLR interventions at the social and institutional level to inform relevant restoration stakeholders—policy makers, investors, and practitioners. The review finds that several interacting factors shape the outcomes of FLR interventions. We classified them into three categories based on their features, intensity, and scale of occurrence: (1) micro-scale factors that enable or limit individual engagement in FLR and sustainable management practices; (2) project/program-level factors, including the design and implementation stages; and (3) institutional, policy, and governance factors, and issues of inequity that operate at the local or national government scale. The review goes beyond underscoring funding constraints as a major challenge to the up- and out-scaling of restoration interventions and FLR success. The findings also set out a premise for future research to guide the design and implementation of successful FLR models in SSA.

We examine Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) in the Dedza and Ntcheu districts of Central Malawi and model anthropogenic and environmental drivers. We present an integrative approach to understanding heterogenous landscape interactions and short- to long-term shocks and how they inform future land management and policy in Malawi. Landsat 30-m satellite imagery for 2001, 2009, and 2019 was used to identify and quantify LULCC outcomes based on eight input classes: agriculture, built-up areas, barren, water, wetlands, forest-mixed vegetation, shrub-woodland, and other. A Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network was developed to examine land-cover transitions based on the drivers; elevation, slope, soil texture, population density and distance from roads and rivers. Agriculture is projected to dominate the landscape by 2050. Dedza has a higher probability of future land conversion to agriculture (0.45 to 0.70) than Ntcheu (0.30 to 0.45). These findings suggest that future land management initiatives should focus on spatiotemporal patterns in land cover and develop multidimensional policies that promote land conservation in the local context.

: As countries of sub-Saharan Africa expand irrigation to improve food security and foster economic growth, it is important to quantify the malaria risk associated with this process. Irrigated ecosystems can be associated with increased malaria risk, but this relationship is not fully understood. We studied this relationship at the Bwanje Valley Irrigation Scheme (800 hectares) in Malawi. Household prevalence of malaria and indoor Anopheles density were quantified in two cross-sectional studies in 2016 and 2017 (5,829 residents of 1,091 households). Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the association between distance to the irrigation scheme and malaria infection and mosquito density. The prevalence of malaria infection was 50.2% (2,765/5,511) by histidine-rich protein 2–based malaria rapid diagnostic tests and 30.1% (1,626/5,403) by microscopy. Individuals residing in households within 3 km of the scheme had significantly higher prevalence of infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18, 1.68); school-aged children had the highest prevalence among age groups (aOR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.63). Individuals who reported bed net use, and households with higher socioeconomic status and higher level of education for household head or spouse, had lower odds of malaria infection. Female Anopheles mosquitoes (2,215 total; Anopheles arabiensis, 90.5%, Anopheles funestus, 9.5%) were significantly more abundant in houses located within 1.5 km of the scheme. Proximity of human dwellings to the irrigation scheme increased malaria risk, but higher household wealth index reduced risk. Therefore, multisectoral approaches that spur economic growth while mitigating increased malaria transmission are needed for people living close to irrigated sites.

This study examines struggles to bring people back into protected forests to enhance sustainable forest management and livelihoods using insights emerging from a co-management project in Malawi. It uses mixed social science methods and a process-based conceptualization of co-management to analyze experiences, and theory of reciprocal altruism to explain major findings of continuing local forest-user commitment to co-management despite six years of conservation burdens largely for minimal financial benefits. It argues that overemphasis on cash incentives as the motivation for “self-interested” users to participate in co-management overlooks locally significant non-cash motivations, inflates local expectations, and creates perverse incentives that undermine socio-ecological goals. Some non-cash incentives outweighed cash-driven ones. Findings support broadening of incentives mechanisms, including via nested cross-scale institutional arrangements for holistic management that integrates adjacent forests into forest-reserve co-management. Strengthened institutions, improving community/government and intra-community trust, improved village forests easing pressure on the reserve, measures minimizing elite capture, and impetus from an external threat, enhanced forest condition. Generous forest rights and appropriate community licensing and benefit-sharing systems also helped. Bureaucratic/donor inefficiencies, wood-extraction challenges, poor forest-based enterprise development, and low resource value undermined performance. Insights on forest-management planning, fair cost-sharing, targeting the poor, and need for social learning are highlighted.