This study analyses the higher education admission results of Hungarian ethnic minority students in Hungary originating from Central and Eastern European countries (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Romania) by secondary education background (national system vs. foreign system) and school-leaving qualification background (advanced and intermediate levels in Hungary and their native country). Students (n = 759) take (or have taken) part in undivided (5-year) and bachelor (3-year) programs at universities in Hungary and, for historical reasons, live as ethnic minorities in their home countries in the Carpathian Basin. There are significant differences in the number of students according to their secondary education background. Of the admitted students, 83.7% graduated from a national system secondary school and 16.3% from a foreign system secondary school before entering higher education. Using a Mann–Whitney U-test, we confirmed that the admission scores of students from the national secondary education system are significantly different from the scores of students who graduated from a foreign secondary education system (p < 0.001). The results of the Jonckheere–Terpstra test demonstrated that students with advanced-level exam results performed significantly better than those who entered higher education with intermediate-level or native country examination results (p < 0.001). However, there is no detectable difference (p > 0.05) between students who graduate at the intermediate level and students who graduate with a native country certificate. A regression model, based on the median admission scores, exhibited a trend of improving results for foreign students. The R² quadratic determination coefficient is 0.705. This study provides insights into the educational pathways and decisions of Hungarian students residing abroad, underlining the influence of the national context and public education systems on their educational trajectories.

This research investigates higher education admission outcomes at Hungarian universities for ethnic Hungarian minority students residing in countries within the Carpathian Basin. The region is distinguished by a variety of national policies that impact minority education. By analyzing extensive data on the availability of mother tongue education, the status of minority rights, advanced level examination performance, and types of settlement using a wide range of statistical methods, our study reveals significant cross-national differences in the distribution of admission scores and central tendencies. Compared to lower and more varied scores for students from Ukraine and Romania, ethnic Hungarian students from Serbia and Slovakia achieved high average admission scores. Performance was notably more consistent among students from EU member states compared to non-EU regions, strongly linking outcomes to the more robust implementation of minority rights and better access to mother-tongue education within the EU framework. A critical finding is the strong positive correlation (Pearson r = 0.837) between admission scores and advanced level examination results, highlighting the pivotal role of these exams for the academic progression of these minority students. The Jonckheere-Terpstra test (p < 0.05) further confirmed significant performance differences between ranked country groups, with Serbian and Slovak students generally outperforming their Ukrainian and Romanian counterparts. Counterintuitively, settlement type (urban vs. rural) exhibited a negligible relationship with admission scores (r = 0.150), explaining only 2% of score variability. This challenges common assumptions and suggests other factors specific to the Hungarian minority context are more influential. This study provides crucial insights into the complex dynamics influencing Hungarian minority students’ access to higher education, underscoring cross-country educational inequalities, and informing the development of equitable minority rights and mother-tongue education policies in Central Europe for these often-marginalized communities.

This longitudinal study investigates individual differences in the academic trajectories of ethnic Hungarian students from non-EU countries in Hungarian higher education. Using administrative data from 1,041 students across 16 semesters and 4,155 semester-level observations, linear mixed-effects models with student-specific random intercepts and slopes were applied. Results show a modest but statistically significant positive trend in grade point average (GPA) over time, with an average increase of 0.036 GPA points per semester. Serbian students achieved significantly higher average GPAs than Ukrainian peers (β = .067, p = .049), while gender and settlement type had no significant effects. Academic performance varied by field of study, with students in pedagogy (β = .47, p < .001), art sciences (β = .41, p < .001), and humanities (β = .37, p < .001) performing best. Academic workload had a nuanced impact. Completed credits positively influenced GPA (β = .022, p < .001), while credits taken had a negative effect (β = −.019, p < .001). The model indicated substantial individual heterogeneity, with a random intercept variance of 0.343, slope variance of 0.002, and a strong negative intercept-slope correlation (−.80), suggesting that students with higher initial GPAs improved less steeply over time. The high conditional R ² (.71) versus marginal R ² (.23) highlights the predominance of individual differences. These findings underscore the need for context-sensitive, personalized support to promote academic success and integration among cross-border minority students with non-EU backgrounds, and demonstrate the value of longitudinal, multilevel approaches in understanding their diverse educational pathways.