Sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia (TDT) are hereditary haemoglobinopathies characterized by a reduction in functional β-globin chains. Both conditions cause tiredness and increase susceptibility to infection, which can lead organ failure, significantly reducing life expectancy and typically requiring those affected to undergo regular erythrocyte transfusion. Recently, a novel therapeutic treatment for SCD and TDT was approved by the UK regulatory body (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency; MHRA). Exagamglogene autotemcel (Casgevy) is the first licensed therapy globally to utilize CRIPSR/Cas9 technology and induces an increase in expression of γ-globin chains to compensate for the reduction in functional β-globin. Casgevy represents a first-in-class therapeutic, and numerous considerations were made by the MHRA throughout its assessment of the medicine. These include, but are not limited to, the risk of tumorigenicity and off-target editing, a limited cohort size, the validity of proposed dosing and the conduction of only single-arm studies. The MHRA’s analyses of the data to support the proposed indications are presented and discussed throughout this manuscript. Overall, the sponsors claims were considered well supported by their data, and Casgevy was licensed for the treatment of TDT or SCD in patients 12 years of age and older for whom hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplantation is appropriate, but a human leukocyte antigen-matched related HSC donor is not available.

Casgevy (exa-cel) is an autologous cellular therapy modified ex vivo by a CRISPR-Cas9-mediated gene-editing technology. For Casgevy to be granted the indication in transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia, one single-arm trial was submitted which was not amenable to conventional statistical analysis of ‘effect of cause’. Therefore, an analysis was conducted on the basis of ‘cause of effect’ making use of the scheme described by Toulmin coupled to an analysis of causal inference. Based on the current data within the submitted study: subjects with transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia no longer needed a red blood cell transfusion with a 93-percent probability if and only if administered Casgevy; PNS = 93%. It is acknowledged that unknown elements of safety may yet be revealed by long-term follow-up of recipients of Casgevy. Its durability of efficacy is, at present, also an unknown that may also be ascertained by long-term follow-up of recipients. The limitations of a causal analysis are related to assumptions of the proposed causal structure which may not capture the complexity of the real world. Overall, the claim that Casgevy is indicated to treat people with transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia is considered to be supported by the results of the submitted study; the benefit–risk evaluation of Casgevy is found to be positive.

Efanesoctocog alfa (Altuvoct; BIVV001) is a fusion protein comprising domains of (i) factor VIII, (ii) the von Willebrand factor, and (iii) IgG1 coupled to two polypeptide linkers. The half-life of efanesoctocog alfa in plasma is about 40 h. The polypeptide linkers are released by thrombin activation, resulting in an active form of efanesoctocog alfa that results in the formation of a fibrin clot. Data from two single-arm ongoing studies were submitted: the XTEND-1 study enrolled 159 subjects aged 12–72 years, and the XTEND-kids study enrolled 74 subjects aged <12 years; all subjects had severe haemophilia A. Single-arm studies are not amenable to conventional statistical analysis of ‘effect of cause’, and so a supplementary analysis was conducted on the basis of ‘cause of effect’, making use of the scheme described by Toulmin coupled to an analysis of causal inference. Overall, the claim that Altuvoct is indicated to treat people aged ≥2 years with severe (and moderate) haemophilia A was considered to be supported by the results of the submitted studies and associated modelling exercises; the benefit–risk evaluation of Altuvoct was found to be positive in the target population.

The FELIX trial is an ongoing, single-arm, open-label study without an internal control, in which adults with relapsed/refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia receive Aucatzyl (a CAR-T cell therapy) and are followed for overall survival. Here, we combine the Toulmin form of argument with a structural causal model to assess the causal effect of Aucatzyl in the FELIX trial.