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Jinfeng Wang
The State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China

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Accepted manuscript
Published: 13 August 2021 in Virus Evolution
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Enterovirus 71 (EV71) can cause large outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and severe neurological diseases, which is regarded as a major threat to public health, especially in Asia-Pacific regions. However, the global spatiotemporal spread of this virus has not been identified. In this study, we used large sequence datasets and a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to compare the molecular epidemiology and geographical spread patterns of different EV71 subgroups globally. The study found that subgroups of HFMD presented global spatiotemporal variation, subgroups B0, B1, and B2 have caused early infections in Europe and America, and then subgroups C1, C2, C3, and C4 replaced B0-B2 as the predominant genotypes, especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The dispersal patterns of genotype B and subgroup C4 showed the complicated routes in Asia and the source might in some Asian countries, while subgroups C1 and C2 displayed more strongly supported pathways globally, especially in Europe. This study found the predominant subgroup of EV71 and its global spatiotemporal transmission patterns, which may be beneficial to reveal the long-term global spatiotemporal transmission patterns of human EV71 and carry out the HFMD vaccine development.

ACS Style

Bing Xu; Jinfeng Wang; Bin Yan; Chengdong Xu; Qian Yin; Deyan Yang. Global spatiotemporal transmission patterns of human enterovirus 71 from 1963 to 2019. Virus Evolution 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Bing Xu, Jinfeng Wang, Bin Yan, Chengdong Xu, Qian Yin, Deyan Yang. Global spatiotemporal transmission patterns of human enterovirus 71 from 1963 to 2019. Virus Evolution. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bing Xu; Jinfeng Wang; Bin Yan; Chengdong Xu; Qian Yin; Deyan Yang. 2021. "Global spatiotemporal transmission patterns of human enterovirus 71 from 1963 to 2019." Virus Evolution , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 28 July 2021 in Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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While one has yet to be built in China, a rice supply flow network would provide essential information for stabilizing and optimizing food distribution and ensuring food security. Moreover, it is unclear how socioeconomic and natural environmental factors affect the rice supply flow. In this study, 35,768 random samples from the rice sales market were collected to build the rice flow network of China. The rice supply patterns at a regional and provincial level were revealed by the rice flow network. At the regional level, Northeast, Central, and East China are the main rice source areas, supplying almost all of China. At the provincial level, economically developed megacities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, and provinces with low temperatures like Tibet and Qinghai, rely heavily on imported rice. Determinant analysis shows that the rice supply patterns are mainly attributable to the cultivated area, primary industry employees, the permanent population, and tertiary industry proportion. These factors explain 75%, 59%, 48%, and 31%, respectively, of the rice supply spatial patterns. Furthermore, the interactions of cultivated area and temperature, cultivated area and primary industry proportion, and cultivated area and precipitation can explain 94%, 91%, and 89%, respectively, of the rice supply patterns. These findings reveal China's rice supply patterns and their determinants in recent years, providing essential information for optimizing the layout of rice production and ensuring food security in the future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development.

ACS Style

Jintao Yang; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu; Yang Liu; Qian Yin; Xinmei Wang; Li Wang; Yongning Wu; Gexin Xiao. Rice supply flows and their determinants in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2021, 174, 105812 .

AMA Style

Jintao Yang, Jinfeng Wang, Chengdong Xu, Yang Liu, Qian Yin, Xinmei Wang, Li Wang, Yongning Wu, Gexin Xiao. Rice supply flows and their determinants in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021; 174 ():105812.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jintao Yang; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu; Yang Liu; Qian Yin; Xinmei Wang; Li Wang; Yongning Wu; Gexin Xiao. 2021. "Rice supply flows and their determinants in China." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 174, no. : 105812.

Journal article
Published: 13 April 2021 in International Journal of Infectious Diseases
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Objectives The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic is reaching its final phase in China. The complete epidemic data are available for a complete assessment of epidemiological parameters in all regions and time periods. Methods This study aims to present a spatiotemporal epidemic model based on spatially stratified heterogeneity (SSH) to simulate the epidemic spread. A susceptible-exposed/latent-infected-removed (SEIR) model was constructed for each SSH-identified stratum (each administrative city) to estimate the spatiotemporal epidemiological parameters of the outbreak. Results We estimated that the mean latent and removed periods were 5.40 and 2.13 days, respectively. There was an average of 1.72 latent or infected persons per 10,000 Wuhan travelers to elsewhere until January 20th, 2020. The space-time basic reproduction number (R 0) estimates indicate an initial value between 2 and 3.5 in most cities on this date. The mean period for R 0 estimates to decrease to 80% and 50% of initial values in cities were an average of 14.73 and 19.62 days, respectively. Conclusions Our model estimates the complete spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak in a space-time domain, and the findings will help enhance a comprehensive understanding of the outbreak and inform the strategies of prevention and control in other countries worldwide.

ACS Style

Bisong Hu; Pan Ning; Jingyu Qiu; Vincent Tao; Adam Thomas Devlin; Haiying Chen; Jinfeng Wang; Hui Lin. Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Bisong Hu, Pan Ning, Jingyu Qiu, Vincent Tao, Adam Thomas Devlin, Haiying Chen, Jinfeng Wang, Hui Lin. Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bisong Hu; Pan Ning; Jingyu Qiu; Vincent Tao; Adam Thomas Devlin; Haiying Chen; Jinfeng Wang; Hui Lin. 2021. "Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China." International Journal of Infectious Diseases , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 05 March 2021 in BMC Infectious Diseases
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Background Previous studies have indicated that the risk of infectious disease spread is greatest in locations where a population has massive and convenient access to the epicenter of an outbreak. However, the spatiotemporal variations and risk determinants of COVID-19 in typical labor export regions of China remain unclear. Understanding the geographical distribution of the disease and the socio-economic factors affecting its transmission is critical for disease prevention and control. Methods A total of 2152 COVID-19 cases were reported from January 21 to February 24, 2020 across the 34 cities in Henan and Anhui. A Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchy model was used to detect the spatiotemporal variations of the risk posed by COVID-19, and the GeoDetector q statistic was used to evaluate the determinant power of the potential influence factors. Results The risk posed by COVID-19 showed geographical spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, there was an outbreak period and control period. Spatially, there were high-risk regions and low-risk regions. The high-risk regions were mainly in the southwest areas adjacent to Hubei and cities that served as economic and traffic hubs, while the low-risk regions were mainly in western Henan and eastern Anhui, far away from the epicenter. The accessibility, local economic conditions, and medical infrastructure of Wuhan in Hubei province all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission. The results indicated that the q statistics of the per capita GDP and the proportion of primary industry GDP were 0.47 and 0.47, respectively. The q statistic of the population flow from Wuhan was 0.33. In particular, the results showed that the q statistics for the interaction effects between population density and urbanization, population flow from Wuhan, per capita GDP, and the number of doctors were all greater than 0.8. Conclusions COVID-19 showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the labor export regions of China. The high-risk regions were mainly located in areas adjacent to the epicenter as well as in big cities that served as traffic hubs. Population access to the epicenter, as well as local economic and medical conditions, played an important role in the interactive effects of the disease transmission.

ACS Style

Li Wang; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang; Jiajun Qiao; Mingtao Yan; Qiankun Zhu. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its determinants of COVID-19 transmission in typical labor export provinces of China. BMC Infectious Diseases 2021, 21, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Li Wang, Chengdong Xu, Jinfeng Wang, Jiajun Qiao, Mingtao Yan, Qiankun Zhu. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its determinants of COVID-19 transmission in typical labor export provinces of China. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2021; 21 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li Wang; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang; Jiajun Qiao; Mingtao Yan; Qiankun Zhu. 2021. "Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its determinants of COVID-19 transmission in typical labor export provinces of China." BMC Infectious Diseases 21, no. 1: 1-12.

Journal article
Published: 15 February 2021 in Nature Communications
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Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

ACS Style

Jun Yang; Maigeng Zhou; Zhoupeng Ren; Mengmeng Li; Boguang Wang; De Li Liu; Chun-Quan Ou; Peng Yin; Jimin Sun; Shilu Tong; Hao Wang; Chunlin Zhang; Jinfeng Wang; Yuming Guo; Qiyong Liu. Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -11.

AMA Style

Jun Yang, Maigeng Zhou, Zhoupeng Ren, Mengmeng Li, Boguang Wang, De Li Liu, Chun-Quan Ou, Peng Yin, Jimin Sun, Shilu Tong, Hao Wang, Chunlin Zhang, Jinfeng Wang, Yuming Guo, Qiyong Liu. Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-11.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jun Yang; Maigeng Zhou; Zhoupeng Ren; Mengmeng Li; Boguang Wang; De Li Liu; Chun-Quan Ou; Peng Yin; Jimin Sun; Shilu Tong; Hao Wang; Chunlin Zhang; Jinfeng Wang; Yuming Guo; Qiyong Liu. 2021. "Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-11.

Journal article
Published: 08 September 2020 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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Geospatial referenced environmental data are extensively used in environmental assessment, prediction, and management. Data are commonly obtained by nonrandom surveys or monitoring networks, whereas spatial sampling and inference affect the accuracy of subsequent applications. Design-based and model-based procedures (DB and MB for short) both allow one to address the gap between statistical inference and spatial data. Creating independence by sampling implies that DB may neglect spatial autocorrelation (SAC) if the sampling interval is beyond the SAC range. In MB, however, a particular sampling design can be irrelevant for inferential results. Empirical studies further showed that MSE (mean squared error) values for both DB and MB are affected by SAC and spatial stratified heterogeneity (SSH). We propose a novel framework for integrating SAC and SSH into DB and MB. We do so by distinguishing the spatial population from the spatial sample. We show that spatial independence in a spatial population results in independence in a spatial sample, whereas SAC in a spatial population is reflected in a spatial sample if sampling distances are within the range of dependence; otherwise, SAC is absent in the spatial sample. Similarly, SSH in a population may or may not be inherited in data, and this depends on the sampling method. Thus, the population, sample, and inference constitute a so-called spatial statistic trinity (SST), providing a new framework for spatial statistics, including sampling and inference. This paper shows that it greatly simplifies the choice of method in spatial sampling and inferences. Two empirical examples and various citations illustrate the theory.

ACS Style

Jinfeng Wang; Bingbo Gao; Alfred Stein. The spatial statistic trinity: A generic framework for spatial sampling and inference. Environmental Modelling & Software 2020, 134, 104835 .

AMA Style

Jinfeng Wang, Bingbo Gao, Alfred Stein. The spatial statistic trinity: A generic framework for spatial sampling and inference. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020; 134 ():104835.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jinfeng Wang; Bingbo Gao; Alfred Stein. 2020. "The spatial statistic trinity: A generic framework for spatial sampling and inference." Environmental Modelling & Software 134, no. : 104835.

Research article
Published: 22 July 2020 in International Journal of Geographical Information Science
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In this work, a synthesis of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and the Kalman filter (KF) methods, which enhances their individual strengths and overcomes certain of their weaknesses for spatiotemporal mapping purposes, is proposed in a spatiotemporal disease mapping context. The proposed BME-Kalman synthesis allows BME to use information from both parametric regression modeling and KF estimation leading to enhanced knowledge bases. The BME-Kalman synthetic approach is used to study the space-time incidence mapping of the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shandong province (China) during the period May 1st, 2008 to March 19th, 2009. The results showed that the BME-Kalman approach exhibited very good regressive and predictive accuracies, maintained a very good performance even during low-incidence and extremely low-incidence periods, offered an improved description of hierarchical disease characteristics compared to traditional mapping techniques, and provided a clear explanation of the spatial stratified incidence heterogeneity at unsampled locations. The BME-Kalman approach is versatile and flexible so that it can be modified and adjusted according to the needs of the application.

ACS Style

Bisong Hu; Pan Ning; Yi Li; Chengdong Xu; George Christakos; Jinfeng Wang. Space-time disease mapping by combining Bayesian maximum entropy and Kalman filter: the BME-Kalman approach. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2020, 35, 466 -489.

AMA Style

Bisong Hu, Pan Ning, Yi Li, Chengdong Xu, George Christakos, Jinfeng Wang. Space-time disease mapping by combining Bayesian maximum entropy and Kalman filter: the BME-Kalman approach. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 2020; 35 (3):466-489.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bisong Hu; Pan Ning; Yi Li; Chengdong Xu; George Christakos; Jinfeng Wang. 2020. "Space-time disease mapping by combining Bayesian maximum entropy and Kalman filter: the BME-Kalman approach." International Journal of Geographical Information Science 35, no. 3: 466-489.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2020 in BMC Public Health
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Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the main health and development challenge facing humankind all over the world. They are inextricably linked to socio-economic development. Deaths caused by NCDs should be different in different socio-economic development stages. The stratified heterogeneity of NCD deaths is currently not fully explored. Methods Countries were classified according to their socio-economic types and development stages, which were illustrated as a tree-like structure called Geotree. NCD deaths were linked to the countries and so were attached to the Geotree, which was modelled by a multilevel model (MLM) approach. Accordingly, the levels of NCD death indexes were predicted for 2030. Results Through the Geotree structure constructed in the study, it can be seen that the NCD death index has obvious stratified heterogeneity; that is, the NCD death index shows different trends in different country types and socio-economic development stages. In the first-level branches (country type), as national income increases, NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In the secondary-level trunks (socio-economic development stage), as a country’s development stage rises, the NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In addition, combined with the hierarchical nature of the evolution tree model, the MLM was used to predict the global NCD death index for 2030. The result was that by 2030, the global average age-standardized NCD mortality rate would be 510.54 (per 100,000 population) and the global average mortality for NCD deaths of the total number of deaths would be 75.26%. Conclusions This study found that there is a significant association between socio-economic factors and NCD death indicators in the tree-like structure. In the Geotree, countries on the same branch or trunk can learn from countries with higher development stages to formulate more effective NCD response policies and find the right prevention and treatment path.

ACS Style

Yang Wang; Jinfeng Wang. Modelling and prediction of global non-communicable diseases. BMC Public Health 2020, 20, 1 -13.

AMA Style

Yang Wang, Jinfeng Wang. Modelling and prediction of global non-communicable diseases. BMC Public Health. 2020; 20 (1):1-13.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yang Wang; Jinfeng Wang. 2020. "Modelling and prediction of global non-communicable diseases." BMC Public Health 20, no. 1: 1-13.

Journal article
Published: 17 May 2020 in International Journal of Infectious Diseases
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Objectives The outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has currently become a global concern. The generations of the epidemic spread are not well known, yet these are critical parameters to facilitate an understanding of the epidemic. A seafood wholesale market and Wuhan city, China, were recognized as the primary and secondary epidemic sources. Human movements nationwide from the two epidemic sources revealed the characteristics of the first-generation and second-generation spreads of the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as the potential third-generation spread. Methods We used spatiotemporal data of COVID-19 cases in mainland China and two categories of location-based service (LBS) data of mobile devices from the primary and secondary epidemic sources to calculate Pearson correlation coefficient,r, and spatial stratified heterogeneity, q, statistics. Results Two categories of device trajectories had generally significant correlations and determinant powers of the epidemic spread. Bothr and q statistics decreased with distance from the epidemic sources and their associations changed with time. At the beginning of the epidemic, the mixed first-generation and second-generation spreads appeared in most cities with confirmed cases. They strongly interacted to enhance the epidemic in Hubei province and the trend was also significant in the provinces adjacent to Hubei. The third-generation spread started in Wuhan from January 17–20, 2020, and in Hubei from January 23–24. No obvious third-generation spread was detected outside Hubei. Conclusions The findings provide important foundations to quantify the effect of human movement on epidemic spread and inform ongoing control strategies. The spatiotemporal association between the epidemic spread and human movements from the primary and secondary epidemic sources indicates a transfer from second to third generations of the infection. Urgent control measures include preventing the potential third-generation spread in mainland China, eliminating it in Hubei, and reducing the interaction influence of first-generation and second-generation spreads.

ACS Style

Bisong Hu; Jingyu Qiu; Haiying Chen; Vincent Tao; Jinfeng Wang; Hui Lin. First, second and potential third generation spreads of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: an early exploratory study incorporating location-based service data of mobile devices. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2020, 96, 489 -495.

AMA Style

Bisong Hu, Jingyu Qiu, Haiying Chen, Vincent Tao, Jinfeng Wang, Hui Lin. First, second and potential third generation spreads of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: an early exploratory study incorporating location-based service data of mobile devices. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020; 96 ():489-495.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bisong Hu; Jingyu Qiu; Haiying Chen; Vincent Tao; Jinfeng Wang; Hui Lin. 2020. "First, second and potential third generation spreads of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China: an early exploratory study incorporating location-based service data of mobile devices." International Journal of Infectious Diseases 96, no. : 489-495.

Original article
Published: 04 May 2020 in Journal of Geographical Systems
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Assessing the association between maps is a basic task in GIS. It not only helps to discover the consistency between mapped distributions and to reveal the relationship between various spatial patterns, but also implies attribution. Although literatures are rich in the map association measures, their applications are still tricky because of the complexity in spatial data. In this study, we investigate nine representative measures of map association, where each map could be in three scales of measurement: nominal, ordinal and quantitative (interval or ratio). The strengths and limitations of individual methods are addressed and compared, which include their applicability to different measurement scales, interpretability, and potential applications in complex scenarios. The theoretical comparisons are then demonstrated by two empirical examples. These works provide a rule of thumb for the selection of map association measures for practical purposes.

ACS Style

Yue Lin; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu. Theoretical and empirical comparative evaluations on measures of map association. Journal of Geographical Systems 2020, 22, 361 -390.

AMA Style

Yue Lin, Jinfeng Wang, Chengdong Xu. Theoretical and empirical comparative evaluations on measures of map association. Journal of Geographical Systems. 2020; 22 (3):361-390.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yue Lin; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu. 2020. "Theoretical and empirical comparative evaluations on measures of map association." Journal of Geographical Systems 22, no. 3: 361-390.

Journal article
Published: 10 April 2020 in BMC Public Health
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Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease whose mechanism of transmission continues to remain a puzzle for researchers. The measurement and prediction of the HFMD incidence can be combined to improve the estimation accuracy, and provide a novel perspective to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and determinant factors of an HFMD epidemic. Methods In this study, we collected weekly HFMD incidence reports for a total of 138 districts in Shandong province, China, from May 2008 to March 2009. A Kalman filter was integrated with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to estimate the HFMD incidence. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics were explored and potential risk regions were identified, along with quantitatively evaluating the influence of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the HFMD incidence. Results The results showed that the average error covariance of the estimated HFMD incidence by district was reduced from 0.3841 to 0.1846 compared to the measured incidence, indicating an overall improvement of over 50% in error reduction. Furthermore, three specific categories of potential risk regions of HFMD epidemics in Shandong were identified by the filter processing, with manifest filtering oscillations in the initial, local and long-term periods, respectively. Amongst meteorological and socioeconomic factors, the temperature and number of hospital beds per capita, respectively, were recognized as the dominant determinants that influence HFMD incidence variation. Conclusions The estimation accuracy of the HFMD incidence can be significantly improved by integrating a Kalman filter with GWR and the integration is effective for exploring spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of an HFMD epidemic. Our findings could help establish more accurate HFMD prevention and control strategies in Shandong. The present study demonstrates a novel approach to exploring spatiotemporal patterns and determinant factors of HFMD epidemics, and it can be easily extended to other regions and other infectious diseases similar to HFMD.

ACS Style

Bisong Hu; Wenqing Qiu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. Integration of a Kalman filter in the geographically weighted regression for modeling the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease. BMC Public Health 2020, 20, 1 -15.

AMA Style

Bisong Hu, Wenqing Qiu, Chengdong Xu, Jinfeng Wang. Integration of a Kalman filter in the geographically weighted regression for modeling the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease. BMC Public Health. 2020; 20 (1):1-15.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bisong Hu; Wenqing Qiu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. 2020. "Integration of a Kalman filter in the geographically weighted regression for modeling the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease." BMC Public Health 20, no. 1: 1-15.

Journal article
Published: 25 February 2020 in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rate for men who have sex with men (MSM) has rapidly increased in recent years in China and the migrant population accounts for a large proportion of this increase. The migration of MSM not only poses difficulties for government departments charged with treating the disease, but also increases the spread of HIV in geographical space, so it is important to understand the geographical distribution and migrant patterns of MSM. We searched the largest dating website in China to obtain open information from all users in the Chinese mainland from January 2006 to August 2017. For the analysis, the datasets were merged according to units of time and administrative regions. In total, 1,356,609 records were obtained for this study. The main users of the website were single males aged 18–35 years old. Most of the users were located in the large and mid-sized cities of East China. The distribution of MSM was strongly associated with the distribution of the development of service industry in geographical space. The main flow of MSM are mainly located inside the province as internal flow. For those MSM who prefer to migrate to other provinces, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Sichuan and Chongqing area were their primary destinations. The interprovincial migration behavior of MSM was closely related to an increased average income. MSM prefer to migrate to cities with developed economies and open cultures. It is important to strengthen the management of migrant MSM and increase their basic understanding of HIV.

ACS Style

Dacang Huang; Jinfeng Wang; Tengfei Yang. Mapping the Spatial–Temporal Distribution and Migration Patterns of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mainland China: A Web-Based Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2020, 17, 1469 .

AMA Style

Dacang Huang, Jinfeng Wang, Tengfei Yang. Mapping the Spatial–Temporal Distribution and Migration Patterns of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mainland China: A Web-Based Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17 (5):1469.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Dacang Huang; Jinfeng Wang; Tengfei Yang. 2020. "Mapping the Spatial–Temporal Distribution and Migration Patterns of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mainland China: A Web-Based Study." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 5: 1469.

Preprint content
Published: 28 January 2020
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Background: China has the largest population and third largest number of tuberculosis cases in the world. Tuberculosis still remains a major public health concern in China. The increasing floating population has become an important part of China’s socioeconomic process and brought the potential risk for infectious disease transmission in the huge population. Both the flow of tuberculosis population in the country and the role of massive floating population in tuberculosis transmission are yet unclear.Methods: 14,027 tuberculosis flow data were derived from the new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China in 2012, provided by the nationwide Infectious Disease Reporting System. Spatial interaction model was used to model the tuberculosis flow and the regional socioeconomic factors.Results: The Pearl River Delta in southern China and the Yangtze River Delta along China’s east coast presented as the largest destination and concentration areas of tuberculosis inflows. Socioeconomic factors were determinants of tuberculosis flow. A 10% increase in per capita GDP was associated with 2.1% decrease in tuberculosis outflows from the provinces of origin, and 0.5% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations and 18.9% increase in intraprovincial flow. Per capita net income of rural households and per capita disposable income of urban households were positively associated with tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in per capita net income corresponded to 3.6% increase in outflows from the origin, 12.8% increase in inflows to the destinations and 47.9% increase in intraprovincial flows. Tuberculosis incidence had positive impacts on tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in the number of tuberculosis cases corresponded to 1.1% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations, 2.0% increase in outflows from the origins, and 2.2% increase in intraprovincial flows. A 10% increase in the tuberculosis incidence rate was associated with 9.9% increase in tuberculosis intraprovincial flows. In addition, the tuberculosis flow had a significant spatial dependence and positively affected tuberculosis flows in the neighboring regions.Conclusions: Tuberculosis flows had clear spatial stratified heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation; regional socio-economic characteristics had different and statistically significant effects on tuberculosis flows in the origin and destination, and income factor played an important role among the determinants.

ACS Style

Li Wang; Chengdong Xu; Maogui Hu; Wei Chen; Jinfeng Wang; Jiajun Qiao; Shiming Cheng. Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Li Wang, Chengdong Xu, Maogui Hu, Wei Chen, Jinfeng Wang, Jiajun Qiao, Shiming Cheng. Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li Wang; Chengdong Xu; Maogui Hu; Wei Chen; Jinfeng Wang; Jiajun Qiao; Shiming Cheng. 2020. "Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 24 January 2020 in JMIR mHealth and uHealth
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Background In China, the cases of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased more than tenfold since 2006. However, the MSM population size, geographical distribution, and migration patterns are largely unknown. Objective Our aim is to estimate the number, spatial distribution, and migration of MSM populations in mainland China using big data from social networking. Methods We collected 85 days of data on online users of a social networking MSM app in mainland China. Daily online MSM users and their migration across the country were investigated during a holiday period and a nonholiday period. Using the capture-mark-recapture model, we designed an experiment consisting of two independent samples to estimate the total provincial MSM population. Results The estimate of MSM in mainland China was 8,288,536 (95% CI 8,274,931-8,302,141), accounting for 1.732% (95% CI 1.729%-1.734%) of adult men aged 18 to 64 years. The average daily number of MSM social networking online across mainland China was 1,198,682 during the nonholiday period. The five provinces (including municipalities) with the highest average number of daily online MSM numbers were Guangdong (n=141,712), Jiangsu (n=90,710), Zhejiang (n=72,212), Shandong (n=68,065), and Beijing (n=66,057). The proportion of daily online MSM among adult men in different cities varied from 0.04% to 0.96%, with a mean of 0.20% (SD 0.14%). Three migrating centers—Guangdong, Beijing, and the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu)—accounted for 57.23% of MSM migrants in the county. Conclusions The percentage of MSM among adult men in mainland China is at the middle level compared with other Asia and Pacific countries. However, the number of MSM is very large, and the distribution is uneven. Both MSM distribution and migration are highly affected by socioeconomic status.

ACS Style

Maogui Hu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method. JMIR mHealth and uHealth 2020, 8, e14800 .

AMA Style

Maogui Hu, Chengdong Xu, Jinfeng Wang. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method. JMIR mHealth and uHealth. 2020; 8 (1):e14800.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maogui Hu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. 2020. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method." JMIR mHealth and uHealth 8, no. 1: e14800.

Research article
Published: 05 November 2019 in International Journal of Geographical Information Science
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When a marine study area is large, the environmental variables often present spatially stratified non-homogeneity, violating the spatial second-order stationary assumption. The stratified non-homogeneous surface can be divided into several stationary strata with different means or variances, but still with close relationships between neighboring strata. To give the best linear-unbiased estimator for those environmental variables, an interpolated version of the mean of the surface with stratified non-homogeneity (MSN) method called point mean of the surface with stratified non-homogeneity (P-MSN) was derived. P-MSN distinguishes the spatial mean and variogram in different strata and borrows information from neighboring strata to improve the interpolation precision near the strata boundary. This paper also introduces the implementation of this method, and its performance is demonstrated in two case studies, one using ocean color remote sensing data, and the other using marine environment monitoring data. The predictions of P-MSN were compared with ordinary kriging, stratified kriging, kriging with an external drift, and empirical Bayesian kriging, the most frequently used methods that can handle some extent of spatial non-homogeneity. The results illustrated that for spatially stratified non-homogeneous environmental variables, P-MSN outperforms other methods by simultaneously improving interpolation precision and avoiding artificially abrupt changes along the strata boundaries.

ACS Style

Bingbo Gao; Maogui Hu; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu; Ziyue Chen; Haimei Fan; Haiyuan Ding. Spatial interpolation of marine environment data using P-MSN. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2019, 34, 577 -603.

AMA Style

Bingbo Gao, Maogui Hu, Jinfeng Wang, Chengdong Xu, Ziyue Chen, Haimei Fan, Haiyuan Ding. Spatial interpolation of marine environment data using P-MSN. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 2019; 34 (3):577-603.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bingbo Gao; Maogui Hu; Jinfeng Wang; Chengdong Xu; Ziyue Chen; Haimei Fan; Haiyuan Ding. 2019. "Spatial interpolation of marine environment data using P-MSN." International Journal of Geographical Information Science 34, no. 3: 577-603.

Journal article
Published: 11 October 2019 in Nature Communications
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Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature–mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.

ACS Style

Qian Yin; Jinfeng Wang; Zhoupeng Ren; Jie Li; Yuming Guo. Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change. Nature Communications 2019, 10, 1 -8.

AMA Style

Qian Yin, Jinfeng Wang, Zhoupeng Ren, Jie Li, Yuming Guo. Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change. Nature Communications. 2019; 10 (1):1-8.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Qian Yin; Jinfeng Wang; Zhoupeng Ren; Jie Li; Yuming Guo. 2019. "Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change." Nature Communications 10, no. 1: 1-8.

Research article
Published: 09 September 2019 in Environmental Science and Pollution Research
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The Huai River basin (located in eastern China) has a population of 180 million and has the highest risk of esophageal cancer (EC) mortality in China. Some studies found that contaminants in drinking water are a major risk factor for cancers of the digestive system. However, the effect of water pollution in the historical period on the current EC mortality remains unclear. Data were collected on the EC mortality rate in 2004 in the Huai River basin in 11 counties, and data on the surface water quality in the region from 1987 to 2004 were used. The Pearson correlation and the GeoDetector q-statistic were employed to explore the association between water pollution and the EC mortality rate in different lag periods, from linear and nonlinear perspectives, respectively. The study showed apparently spatial heterogeneity of the EC mortality rate in the region. The EC mortality rate downstream is significantly higher than that in other regions; in the midstream, the region north of the mainstream has a lower average mortality rate than that south of the area. Upstream, the region north of the mainstream has a higher mortality rate than that in the southern area. The spatial pattern was formed under the influence of water pollution in the historical period. 1996, 1997, and 1998 have the strongest linear or nonlinear effect on the EC mortality rate in 2004, in which the Pearson correlation coefficient and the q-statistic were the highest, 0.79 and 0.89, respectively. Rapid industrialization in the past 20 years has caused environmental problems and poses related health risks. The study indicated that the current EC mortality rate was mainly caused by water pollution from the previous 8 years. The findings provide knowledge about the lag time for pollution effects on the EC mortality rate, and can contribute to the controlling and preventing esophageal cancer.

ACS Style

Chengdong Xu; Dingfan Xing; Jinfeng Wang; Gexin Xiao. The lag effect of water pollution on the mortality rate for esophageal cancer in a rapidly industrialized region in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2019, 26, 32852 -32858.

AMA Style

Chengdong Xu, Dingfan Xing, Jinfeng Wang, Gexin Xiao. The lag effect of water pollution on the mortality rate for esophageal cancer in a rapidly industrialized region in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2019; 26 (32):32852-32858.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chengdong Xu; Dingfan Xing; Jinfeng Wang; Gexin Xiao. 2019. "The lag effect of water pollution on the mortality rate for esophageal cancer in a rapidly industrialized region in China." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26, no. 32: 32852-32858.

Journal article
Published: 20 August 2019 in Nature Communications
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Clinical experience suggests increased incidences of neonatal jaundice when air quality worsens, yet no studies have quantified this relationship. Here we reports investigations in 25,782 newborns showing an increase in newborn’s bilirubin levels, the indicator of neonatal jaundice risk, by 0.076 (95% CI: 0.027–0.125), 0.029 (0.014–0.044) and 0.009 (95% CI: 0.002–0.016) mg/dL per μg/m3 for PM2.5 exposure in the concentration ranges of 10–35, 35–75 and 75–200 μg/m3, respectively. The response is 0.094 (0.077–0.111) and 0.161 (0.07–0.252) mg/dL per μg/m3 for SO2 exposure at 10–15 and above 15 μg/m3, respectively, and 0.351 (0.314–0.388) mg/dL per mg/m3 for CO exposure. Bilirubin levels increase linearly with exposure time between 0 and 48 h. Positive relationship between maternal exposure and newborn bilirubin level is also quantitated. The jaundice−pollution relationship is not affected by top-of-atmosphere incident solar irradiance and atmospheric visibility. Improving air quality may therefore be key to lowering the neonatal jaundice risk. Air pollution has become a major health risk in China. Here Zhang et al. report that maternal and neonatal exposure to particulate matter increases the risk of neonatal jaundice based on the study of 25,782 newborns born in China between 2014 and 2017.

ACS Style

Liqiang Zhang; Weiwei Liu; Kun Hou; Jintai Lin; Changqing Song; Chenghu Zhou; Bo Huang; Xiaohua Tong; Jinfeng Wang; William Rhine; Ying Jiao; Ziwei Wang; Ruijing Ni; Mengyao Liu; Ziye Wang; Yuebin Wang; Xingang Li; Suhong Liu; Yanhong Wang. Air pollution exposure associates with increased risk of neonatal jaundice. Nature Communications 2019, 10, 1 -9.

AMA Style

Liqiang Zhang, Weiwei Liu, Kun Hou, Jintai Lin, Changqing Song, Chenghu Zhou, Bo Huang, Xiaohua Tong, Jinfeng Wang, William Rhine, Ying Jiao, Ziwei Wang, Ruijing Ni, Mengyao Liu, Ziye Wang, Yuebin Wang, Xingang Li, Suhong Liu, Yanhong Wang. Air pollution exposure associates with increased risk of neonatal jaundice. Nature Communications. 2019; 10 (1):1-9.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Liqiang Zhang; Weiwei Liu; Kun Hou; Jintai Lin; Changqing Song; Chenghu Zhou; Bo Huang; Xiaohua Tong; Jinfeng Wang; William Rhine; Ying Jiao; Ziwei Wang; Ruijing Ni; Mengyao Liu; Ziye Wang; Yuebin Wang; Xingang Li; Suhong Liu; Yanhong Wang. 2019. "Air pollution exposure associates with increased risk of neonatal jaundice." Nature Communications 10, no. 1: 1-9.

Journal article
Published: 29 June 2019 in Infectious Diseases of Poverty
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Scrub typhus is a life-threatening disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, and specific antimicrobial medicine is available. Early and accurate diagnosis is essential for reducing the risk of severe complications and death. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the case diagnosis situation among medical care institutions and geographical regions in China, and the results will benefit both clinical practice and the disease surveillance system. We extracted individual scrub typhus case data 2006–2016 from a national disease surveillance system in China. The diagnosis category and interval time from illness onset to diagnosis were compared among three levels of medical care institutions and provinces. The descriptive analysis method was performed in our study. During the 11-year study period, 93 481 scrub typhus cases, including 57 deaths, were recorded in the nationwide surveillance system. The overall proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases was only 4.7%, and this proportion varied greatly among primary medical centres (2.8%), county level hospitals (4.2%), and city level hospitals (6.3%). Notably, the proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases has consistently decreased from 16.3% in 2006 to 2.6% in 2016, and the same decreasing trend was found among all three levels of medical care institutions. The interval from illness onset to case diagnosis (Tdiag) for all cases was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 2–9 days) and decreased from 7 days (IQR: 3–11 days) in 2006 to 5 days (IQR: 2–8 days) in 2016. The risk of death for patients with a Tdiag of > 7 days was 2.2 times higher (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.05–5.21) than that of patients with a Tdiag of < 2 days. The interval time from illness onset to diagnosis for scrub typhus cases decreased greatly in China; however, the diagnosis rate of cases with laboratory-confirmed results must be increased among all levels of medical care institutions to reduce both the risk of death and the misuse of antibiotics associated with scrub typhus.

ACS Style

Hua-Lei Xin; Jian-Xing Yu; Mao-Gui Hu; Fa-Chun Jiang; Xiao-Jing Li; Li-Ping Wang; Ji-Lei Huang; Jin-Feng Wang; Jun-Ling Sun; Zhong-Jie Li. Evaluation of scrub typhus diagnosis in China: analysis of nationwide surveillance data from 2006 to 2016. Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2019, 8, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Hua-Lei Xin, Jian-Xing Yu, Mao-Gui Hu, Fa-Chun Jiang, Xiao-Jing Li, Li-Ping Wang, Ji-Lei Huang, Jin-Feng Wang, Jun-Ling Sun, Zhong-Jie Li. Evaluation of scrub typhus diagnosis in China: analysis of nationwide surveillance data from 2006 to 2016. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 2019; 8 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hua-Lei Xin; Jian-Xing Yu; Mao-Gui Hu; Fa-Chun Jiang; Xiao-Jing Li; Li-Ping Wang; Ji-Lei Huang; Jin-Feng Wang; Jun-Ling Sun; Zhong-Jie Li. 2019. "Evaluation of scrub typhus diagnosis in China: analysis of nationwide surveillance data from 2006 to 2016." Infectious Diseases of Poverty 8, no. 1: 1-12.

Preprint content
Published: 24 May 2019
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BACKGROUND In China, the cases of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased more than tenfold since 2006. However, the MSM population size, geographical distribution, and migration patterns are largely unknown. OBJECTIVE Our aim is to estimate the number, spatial distribution, and migration of MSM populations in mainland China using big data from social networking. METHODS We collected 85 days of data on online users of a social networking MSM app in mainland China. Daily online MSM users and their migration across the country were investigated during a holiday period and a nonholiday period. Using the capture-mark-recapture model, we designed an experiment consisting of two independent samples to estimate the total provincial MSM population. RESULTS The estimate of MSM in mainland China was 8,288,536 (95% CI 8,274,931-8,302,141), accounting for 1.732% (95% CI 1.729%-1.734%) of adult men aged 18 to 64 years. The average daily number of MSM social networking online across mainland China was 1,198,682 during the nonholiday period. The five provinces (including municipalities) with the highest average number of daily online MSM numbers were Guangdong (n=141,712), Jiangsu (n=90,710), Zhejiang (n=72,212), Shandong (n=68,065), and Beijing (n=66,057). The proportion of daily online MSM among adult men in different cities varied from 0.04% to 0.96%, with a mean of 0.20% (SD 0.14%). Three migrating centers—Guangdong, Beijing, and the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu)—accounted for 57.23% of MSM migrants in the county. CONCLUSIONS The percentage of MSM among adult men in mainland China is at the middle level compared with other Asia and Pacific countries. However, the number of MSM is very large, and the distribution is uneven. Both MSM distribution and migration are highly affected by socioeconomic status.

ACS Style

Maogui Hu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method (Preprint). 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Maogui Hu, Chengdong Xu, Jinfeng Wang. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method (Preprint). . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maogui Hu; Chengdong Xu; Jinfeng Wang. 2019. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method (Preprint)." , no. : 1.