Natalie Carvalho

Dr. Natalie Carvalho

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

21Years (2006-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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17 June 2008 in PLOS Medicine
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
GSGretchen Stevens
Gretchen Stevens
RDRodrigo H Dias
Rodrigo H Dias
KTKevin J. A Thomas
Kevin J. A Thomas
JDJuan A. Rivera Dommarco
Juan A. Rivera Dommarco
NCNatalie Carvalho
Natalie Carvalho
MEMajid Ezzati
Majid Ezzati
Rates of diseases and injuries and the effects of their risk factors can have substantial subnational heterogeneity, especially in middle-income countries like Mexico. Subnational analysis of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors can improve characterization of the epidemiological transition and identify policy priorities. We estimated deaths and loss of healthy life years (measured in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) in 2004 from a comprehensive list of diseases and injuries, and 16 major risk factors, by sex and age for Mexico and its states. Data sources included the vital statistics, national censuses, health examination surveys, and published epidemiological studies. Mortality statistics were adjusted for underreporting, misreporting of age at death, and for misclassification and incomparability of cause-of-death assignment. Nationally, noncommunicable diseases caused 75% of total deaths and 68% of total DALYs, with another 14% of deaths and 18% of DALYs caused by undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases. The leading causes of death were ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, liver cirrhosis, and road traffic injuries. High body mass index, high blood glucose, and alcohol use were the leading risk factors for disease burden, causing 5.1%, 5.0%, and 7.3% of total burden of disease, respectively. Mexico City had the lowest mortality rates (4.2 per 1,000) and the Southern region the highest (5.0 per 1,000); under-five mortality in the Southern region was nearly twice that of Mexico City. In the Southern region undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases caused 23% of DALYs; in Chiapas, they caused 29% of DALYs. At the same time, the absolute rates of noncommunicable disease and injury burdens were highest in the Southern region (105 DALYs per 1,000 population versus 97 nationally for noncommunicable diseases; 22 versus 19 for injuries). Mexico is at an advanced stage in the epidemiologic transition, with the majority of the disease and injury burden from noncommunicable diseases. A unique characteristic of the epidemiological transition in Mexico is that overweight and obesity, high blood glucose, and alcohol use are responsible for larger burden of disease than other noncommunicable disease risks such as tobacco smoking. The Southern region is least advanced in the epidemiological transition and suffers from the largest burden of ill health in all disease and injury groups.

5 April 2016 in JAMA
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
XHXinyang Hua
Xinyang Hua
NCNatalie Carvalho
Natalie Carvalho
MTMichelle Tew
Michelle Tew
EHElbert S. Huang
Elbert S. Huang
WHWilliam H. Herman
William H. Herman
PCPhilip Clarke
Philip Clarke
A recent study demonstrated widespread substitution of analog for human insulin and rising out-of-pocket costs in privately insured people with type 2 diabetes in the United States.1 Medicaid reimbursements have increased for both human insulin and more costly analog insulins.2 Although studies have described per-person changes in excess medical spending of US adults with diabetes on prescription medications,3 they have not reported trends in expenditures for different classes of antihyperglycemic medications that simultaneously consider changes in use and price.

10 October 2014 in PLOS ONE
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
NCNatalie Carvalho
Natalie Carvalho
NTNaveen Thacker
Naveen Thacker
SGSubodh S Gupta
Subodh S Gupta
JSJoshua A Salomon
Joshua A Salomon
In 2005, India established a conditional cash transfer program called Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), to increase institutional delivery and encourage the use of reproductive and child health-related services. To assess the effect of maternal receipt of financial assistance from JSY on childhood immunizations, post-partum care, breastfeeding practices, and care-seeking behaviors. We use data from the latest district-level household survey (2007–2008) to conduct a propensity score matching analysis with logistic regression. We conduct the analyses at the national level as well as separately across groups of states classified as high-focus and non-high-focus. We carry out several sensitivity analyses including a subgroup analysis stratified by possession of an immunization card. Receipt of financial assistance from JSY led to an increase in immunization rates ranging from 3.1 (95%CI 2.2–4.0) percentage points for one dose of polio vaccine to 9.1 (95%CI 7.5–10.7) percentage points in the proportion of fully vaccinated children. Our findings also indicate JSY led to increased post-partum check-up rates and healthy early breastfeeding practices around the time of childbirth. No effect of JSY was found on exclusive breastfeeding practices and care-seeking behaviors. Effect sizes were consistently larger in states identified as being a key focus for the program. In an analysis stratified by possession of an immunization card, there was little to no effect of JSY among those with vaccination cards, while the effect size was much larger than the base case results for those missing vaccination cards, across nearly all immunization outcomes. Early results suggest the JSY program led to a significant increase in childhood immunization rates and some healthy reproductive health behaviors, but the structuring of financial incentives to pregnant women and health workers warrants further review. Causal interpretation of our results relies on the assumption that propensity scores balance unobservable characteristics.

20 April 2010 in PLOS Medicine
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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SGSue J. Goldie
Sue J. Goldie
SSSteve Sweet
Steve Sweet
NCNatalie Carvalho
Natalie Carvalho
UNUma Chandra Mouli Natchu
Uma Chandra Mouli Natchu
DHDelphine Hu
Delphine Hu
Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India. Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold (∼23%–35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately prevent four of five maternal deaths; this approach coupled stepwise improvements in family planning and safe abortion with consecutively implemented strategies that incrementally increased skilled attendants, improved antenatal/postpartum care, shifted births away from home, and improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability/quality of EmOC. The strategies in this approach ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than US$500 per year of life saved (YLS), well below India's per capita gross domestic product (GDP), a common benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices and to provide safe abortion, accompanied by a paced systematic and stepwise effort to scale up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, is as cost-effective as childhood immunization or treatment of malaria, tuberculosis, or HIV. In just 5 y, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be averted through increasing contraception rates to meet women's needs for spacing and limiting births; nearly US$1.5 billion would be saved by coupling safe abortion to aggressive family planning efforts; and with stepwise investments to improve access to pregnancy-related health services and to high-quality facility-based intrapartum care, more than 75% of maternal deaths could be prevented. If accomplished over the next decade, the lives of more than one million women would be saved. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

1 November 2006 in The Lancet
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
EGEduardo González-Pier
Eduardo González-Pier
CGCristina Gutiérrez-Delgado
Cristina Gutiérrez-Delgado
GSGretchen Stevens
Gretchen Stevens
MBMariana Barraza-Lloréns
Mariana Barraza-Lloréns
RPRaúl Porras-Condey
Raúl Porras-Condey
JSJoshua A Salomon
Joshua A Salomon

2 March 2012 in BMJ
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JSJ. A. Salomon
J. A. Salomon
NCNatalie Carvalho
Natalie Carvalho
CGCristina Gutiérrez-Delgado
Cristina Gutiérrez-Delgado
RORicardo Orozco
Ricardo Orozco
AMAnna Mancuso
Anna Mancuso
EGEduardo González-Pier
Eduardo González-Pier
Objective To inform decision making regarding intervention strategies against non-communicable diseases in Mexico, in the context of health reform. Design Cost effectiveness analysis based on epidemiological modelling. Interventions 101 intervention strategies relating to nine major clusters of non-communicable disease: depression, heavy alcohol use, tobacco use, cataracts, breast cancer, cervical cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Data sources Mexican data sources were used for most key input parameters, including administrative registries; disease burden and population estimates; household surveys; and drug price databases. These sources were supplemented as needed with estimates for Mexico from the WHO-CHOICE unit cost database or with estimates extrapolated from the published literature. Main outcome measures Population health outcomes, measured in disability adjusted life years (DALYs); costs in 2005 international dollars ($Int); and costs per DALY. Results Across 101 intervention strategies examined in this study, average yearly costs at the population level would range from around ≤$Int1m (such as for cataract surgeries) to >$Int1bn for certain strategies for primary prevention in cardiovascular disease. Wide variation also appeared in total population health benefits, from 300 000 averted DALYs (for aggressive combinations of interventions to deal with alcohol use or cardiovascular risks). Interventions in this study spanned a wide range of average cost effectiveness ratios, differing by more than three orders of magnitude between the lowest and highest ratios. Overall, community and public health interventions such as non-personal interventions for alcohol use, tobacco use, and cardiovascular risks tended to have lower cost effectiveness ratios than many clinical interventions (of varying complexity). Even within the community and public health interventions, however, there was a 200-fold difference between the most and least cost effective strategies examined. Likewise, several clinical interventions appeared among the strategies with the lowest average cost effectiveness ratios—for example, cataract surgeries. Conclusions Wide variations in costs and effects exist within and across intervention categories. For every major disease area examined, at least some strategies provided excellent value for money, including both population based and personal interventions.