Jian Tong

Mr. Jian Tong


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

2Years (2025-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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8 July 2025 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
PPPeng Peng
Peng Peng
JFJiemin Fu
Jiemin Fu
YYYanbin Yuan
Yanbin Yuan
XWXiang Wang
Xiang Wang
YZYangyong Zhao
Yangyong Zhao
JTJian Tong
Jian Tong
To address the critical demand for high-precision forecasts in flood management, real-time error correction techniques are increasingly implemented to improve the accuracy and operational reliability of the hydrological prediction framework. However, developing a robust error correction scheme remains a significant challenge due to the compounded errors inherent in hydrological modeling frameworks. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble learning-based correction (BELC) scheme is proposed which integrates hydrological modeling with multiple machine learning methods to enhance real-time error correction for flood forecasting. The Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model is selected as the hydrological model for this study, given its proven effectiveness in flood forecasting across humid and semi-humid regions, combining structural simplicity with demonstrated predictive accuracy. The BELC scheme straightforwardly post-processes the output of the XAJ model under the Bayesian ensemble learning framework. Four machine learning methods are implemented as base learners: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a light gradient-boosting machine (LGBM), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and random forest (RF). Optimal weights for all base learners are determined by the K-means clustering technique and Bayesian optimization in the BELC scheme. Four baseline schemes constructed by base learners and three ensemble learning-based schemes are also built for comparison purposes. The performance of the BELC scheme is systematically evaluated in the Hengshan Reservoir watershed (Fenghua City, China). Results indicate the following: (1) The BELC scheme achieves better performance in both accuracy and robustness compared to the four baseline schemes and three ensemble learning-based schemes. The average performance metrics for 1–3 h lead times are 0.95 (NSE), 0.92 (KGE), 24.25 m3/s (RMSE), and 8.71% (RPE), with a PTE consistently below 1 h in advance. (2) The K-means clustering technique proves particularly effective with the ensemble learning framework for high flow ranges, where the correction performance exhibits an increment of 62%, 100%, and 100% for 1 h, 2 h, and 3 h lead hours, respectively. Overall, the BELC scheme demonstrates the potential of a Bayesian ensemble learning framework in improving real-time error correction of flood forecasting systems.