Data assimilation can be used to predict crop yield by coupling remote sensing information with the crop growth model, but it often grapples with the challenge of enhancing the computational efficiency for the integrated model. To address this issue, particularly in regional-scale studies, simulation zone partitioning can offer a viable solution to improve computational efficiency. In this study, we first extracted high-resolution rice planting areas in Jiangsu Province (JP), then conducted simulation zone partitioning in JP based on the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm (FCM) combined with soil data, meteorological indices, and EVI. Finally, the hierarchical assimilation system was developed by using phenology and leaf area index (LAI) as state variables to predict rice yield in JP. The results showed that the coefficient of variation (CV) of the small subregion after simulation zone partitioning obtained by using FCM was less than the overall CV of each subregion at different period. Compared with a single assimilation system that only used LAI as the state variable (R² was between 0.33 and 0.35, NRMSE was between 9.08 and 10.94%), the predicted yield of the hierarchical assimilation system (R² was between 0.44 and 0.51, NRMSE was between 7.23 and 8.44%) was in better agreement with the statistic yield. The research findings can provide technical support for the prediction of rice yield at the regional scale.

The rapid and accurate estimation of leaf area index (LAI) through remote sensing holds significant importance for precise crop management. However, the direct construction of a vegetation index model based on multi-spectral data lacks robustness and spatiotemporal expansibility, making its direct application in practical production challenging. This study aimed to establish a simple and effective method for LAI estimation to address the issue of poor accuracy and stability that is encountered by vegetation index models under varying conditions. Based on seven years of field plot trials with different varieties and nitrogen fertilizer treatments, the Kalman filter (KF) fusion method was employed to integrate the estimated outcomes of multiple vegetation index models, and the fusion process was investigated by comparing and analyzing the relationship between fixed and dynamic variances alongside the fusion accuracy of optimal combinations during different growth stages. A novel multi-model integration fusion method, KF-DGDV (Kalman Filtering with Different Growth Periods and Different Vegetation Index Models), which combines the growth characteristics and uncertainty of LAI, was designed for the precise monitoring of LAI across various growth phases of rice. The results indicated that the KF-DGDV technique exhibits a superior accuracy in estimating LAI compared with statistical data fusion and the conventional vegetation index model method. Specifically, during the tillering to booting stage, a high R² value of 0.76 was achieved, while at the heading to maturity stage, it reached 0.66. In contrast, within the framework of the traditional vegetation index model, the red-edge difference vegetation index (DVIREP) model demonstrated a superior performance, with an R² value of 0.65, during tillering to booting stage, and 0.50 during the heading to maturity stage, respectively. The multi-model integration method (MME) yielded an R² value of 0.67 for LAI estimation during the tillering to booting stage, and 0.53 during the heading to maturity stage. Consequently, KF-DGDV presented an effective and stable real-time quantitative estimation method for LAI in rice.