This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men. Comprehensive national data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) were used to quantify TEA’s total number and incidence rates. Poisson regression, exponential smoothing with Error-Trend-Seasonality, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were used to predict developments in the total number of surgeries until 2045. Overall, the number of TEAs is projected to increase continuously from 2021 to 2045. This will result in a total number of 982 (TEAs) in 2045 of mostly elderly patients above 80 years. Notably, female patients will receive TEAs 7.5 times more often than men. This is likely influenced by demographic and societal factors such as an ageing population, changes in healthcare access and utilization, and advancements in medical technology. Our projection emphasises the necessity for continuous improvements in surgical training, implant development, and rehabilitation protocols.

In this study, we aim to estimate the expected growth in radial head arthroplasties (RA) in Germany through 2045. To do this, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson models were used to forecast trends in RA. Official data on demographics and procedures were used, provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt). The models project an increase in the number of radial head arthroplasties through 2045. Specifically, the incidence rate is expected to increase by around 80% to 2.56 per 100,000 inhabitants by then. The projected total number of RA in 2045 is 2,098. Based on our projections, this increase is mainly driven by a rising number of male and female patients aged 65 years and older, leading to a 2.1-fold increase in procedures performed for these patients in 2045 compared with 2023. In total, radial head arthroplasties are projected to be performed approximately three times more often in women than in men, corresponding to a projected total number of 1,574 radial head arthroplasties for women and 524 for men in 2045. Our results emphasize the need to improve implant development, surgical expertise, and training in this specific procedure.