GPS time series of vertical displacement include the elastic response of the Earth to a combination of regional and local loading signals arising from hydrologic mass transfer. The regional loading, controlled by seasonal, synoptic precipitation patterns, dominates the displacement of individual stations and is highly correlated among stations with separation distances from 10 to 300 km. The local loading, controlled by small‐scale precipitation and storage variability, has much shorter correlation lengths of <30 km. We develop a new method to separate the regional and local contributions using common mode analysis and show that GPS is capable of measuring the local hydrologic load changes at watershed scales of tens of kilometers. Using this methodology, GPS‐measured displacement provides an integrated measurement of hydrologic load at a spatial scale between the existing long‐wavelength resolution of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and point measurement resolution of a precipitation station. Thus, GPS time series record critical observations for monitoring integrated hydrologic budgets at scales useful for water management and assessment of the hydro‐ecological response to climate change.
Catchment hydrometeorology and the organization of shallow subsurface flow are key drivers of active contributing areas and streamflow generation. However, understanding how the climatic water balance and complex topography contribute to these processes from hillslope to catchment scales remains difficult. We compared time series of vapor pressure deficits and soil moisture to the climatic water balance and topographic variables across six zero‐order catchments in the Lubrecht Experimental Forest (Montana, USA). We then evaluated how local hydrometeorology (volumetric water content and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit) affected the spatial occurrence of shallow subsurface flow. Generalized linear mixed model analysis revealed significant, temporally stable (monthly and seasonal average) patterns of hydrometeorology that can be predicted by the topographic wetness index and the dynamic climatic water deficit (CWD = potential evapotranspiration − actual evapotranspiration). Intracatchment patterns were significantly correlated to the topographic wetness index, while intercatchment patterns were correlated to spatiotemporal variance in the CWD during each time period. Spatial patterns of shallow subsurface flow were related to the hydrometeorological conditions of the site. We observed persistent shallow subsurface flow in convergent hillslope positions, except when a catchment was positioned in locations with high CWDs (low elevations and southerly aspects). Alternatively, we observed persistent subsurface flow across all hillslope positions (even 70‐m upslope from the hollow) when catchments were positioned in locations with especially low CWDs (northerly aspects and high elevations). These results highlight the importance of considering the superposition of the catchment‐scale climatic water balance and hillslope‐scale topography when characterizing hydrometeorology and shallow subsurface flow dynamics.
Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium (3H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.
Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC‐12, SF6, 3H, and 4He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov‐chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess‐air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3H, CFC‐12, and SF6 in addition to terrigenic 4He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe‐slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4He, CFC‐12, SF6, and 3H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.