As a particular type of alpine glacier, debris-covered glaciers are essential for local water resources and glacial disaster warnings. The Eastern Tomur Peak Region (EPTR) is the most concentrated glacier in Tien Shan Mountain, China, where the glaciers have not been studied in detail. This paper evaluates the delineation accuracy of Landsat8 OLI, Sentinel-1A, and GF images for debris-covered glaciers in the EPTR. Each image uses the most advanced delineation method for itself to minimize the error of inherent resolutions. The results show that the accuracy of these images for delineating debris-covered glaciers is very high, and the F1 scores are expressed as 96.73%, 93.55%, and 95.81%, respectively. Therefore, Landsat images were selected to analyze the area change of EPTR from 2000 to 2022 over a 5-year time scale. The results indicate that glaciers of the EPTR decreased by 19.05 km² from 2000 to 2020, accounting for 1.9% (0.08% a⁻¹), and debris increased by 10.8%, which validates the opinion that the presence of debris inhibits glacier melting. The most varied time was 2010–2022, but it was much less than other Tien Shan regions. The lower glacier ablation rate in this area results from the combined effect of decreased bare ice and increased debris. The main reason for the change in debris-covered glaciers is the increase in temperature.

As a heavily glaciated region, the Eastern Pamir plays a crucial role in regional water supply. However, considerable ambiguity surrounds the distribution of glacier ice thickness and the details of ice volume. Accurate data at the local scale are largely insufficient. In this study, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) was applied to assess the ice thickness at Muztagh Glacier No.16 (MG16) in Muztagh Ata, Eastern Pamir, for the first time, detailing findings from four distinct profiles, bridging the gap in regional measurements. We utilized a total of five different methods based on basic shear stress, surface velocity, and mass conservation, aimed at accurately delineating the ice volume and distribution for MG16. Verification was conducted using measured data, and an aggregated model outcome provided a unified view of ice distribution. The different models showed good agreement with the measurements, but there were differences in the unmeasured areas. The composite findings indicated the maximum ice thickness of MG16 stands at 115.87 ± 4.55 m, with an ice volume calculated at 0.27 ± 0.04 km³. This result is relatively low compared to the findings of other studies, which lies in the fact that the GPR measurements somewhat constrain the model. However, the model parameters remain the primary source of uncertainty. The results from this study can be used to enhance water resource assessments for future glacier change models.

Understanding changes in runoff due to climate variations in glacier-dominated headwaters is key to managing water resources and dryland watersheds effectively and rationally. The continuous glacier shrinkage caused by climate warming has significantly impacted the water supply and ecological systems in the vast arid regions of Central Asia, attracting extensive public concern. The study results indicate an increase in total runoff at the Urumqi River source region during both the baseline (1997–2016) and mid-century (2040–2059) periods, encompassing rain, glacier meltwater, and snowmelt components. Compared to the baseline period, the temperature increases by the mid-century under the three climate scenarios (SSP1−26, SSP2−45, and SSP5−85) range from 0.98 to 1.48 °C. In this region, during the period from 1997 to 2016, glacier meltwater was the dominant component of runoff, comprising 42.10–43.79% of the total, followed by snowmelt at 29.64–30.40% and rainfall contributions of 26.56–27.49%. Additionally, glacier storage in this typical catchment responds quickly to temperature fluctuations, significantly impacting runoff. The Urumqi River source region’s runoff exhibits heightened sensitivity to these temperature shifts compared to precipitation effects. We hypothesized three glacier coverage scenarios: unchanged at 100% glaciation, reduced by half to 50%, and fully retreated to 0% glaciation. Analysis of these scenarios demonstrated that glaciers are pivotal in runoff formation. Under the SSP1−26, SSP2−45, and SSP5−85 climate scenarios, glaciers contributed additional runoff increases of 51.61%, 57.64%, and 62.07%, respectively. Generally, glaciers play a critical role in supplying water in dry areas. Thus, accurately forecasting future water resource shifts in high-altitude glacier regions is crucial for downstream water resource management and utilization.

Debris cover is widespread on glaciers and strongly alters their surface albedo, energy balance, and ablation. Using the Chinese Glacier Inventory of Xinjiang 2020 (CGI-XJ2020), this study investigates the spatial distribution of debris-covered glaciers in Xinjiang. A total of 1612 debris-covered glaciers were identified, covering 10,922.06 km², with 1163.32 km² (~10.65%) mantled by debris. The estimated uncertainties are 266.27 km² (2.44%) for debris-covered glaciers and 106.04 km² (9.12%) for debris-covered portions. These glaciers are mainly distributed across the Tianshan Mountains, Pamir Plateau, Karakoram Mountains, and Kunlun Mountains, with debris concentrated near their largest glacierized centers in the first three ranges. Debris cover is primarily distributed below the median elevation of debris-covered glaciers in each mountain range and is predominantly concentrated on gentle slopes (0–15°), with a preference for north-facing aspects. Among drainage basins, the Tarim Interior Basin hosts the largest debris-covered area (1083.47 km²). Correlation analyses indicate that debris distribution is primarily controlled by glacier topography and debris-supply zone characteristics, with steep supply zones (slope > 45°) playing a key role in debris formation.