Timely and reliable maize yield prediction is essential for the agricultural supply chain and food security. Previous studies using either climate or satellite data or both to build empirical or statistical models have prevailed for decades. However, to what extent climate and satellite data can improve yield prediction is still unknown. In addition, fertilizer information may also improve crop yield prediction, especially in regions with different fertilizer systems, such as cover crop, mineral fertilizer, or compost. Machine learning (ML) has been widely and successfully applied in crop yield prediction. Here, we attempted to predict maize yield from 1994 to 2007 at the plot scale by integrating multi-source data, including monthly climate data, satellite data (i.e., vegetation indices (VIs)), fertilizer data, and soil data to explore the accuracy of different inputs to yield prediction. The results show that incorporating all of the datasets using random forests (RF) and AB (adaptive boosting) can achieve better performances in yield prediction (R²: 0.85~0.98). In addition, the combination of VIs, climate data, and soil data (VCS) can predict maize yield more effectively than other combinations (e.g., combinations of all data and combinations of VIs and soil data). Furthermore, we also found that including different fertilizer systems had different prediction accuracies. This paper aggregates data from multiple sources and distinguishes the effects of different fertilization scenarios on crop yield predictions. In addition, the effects of different data on crop yield were analyzed in this study. Our study provides a paradigm that can be used to improve yield predictions for other crops and is an important effort that combines multi-source remotely sensed and environmental data for maize yield prediction at the plot scale and develops timely and robust methods for maize yield prediction grown under different fertilizing systems.

In order to explore the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China, we took Aohan banner, Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the study area, used the random forest (RF) method to predict the SOC from 1989 to 2018, and the geographic detector method (GDM) was applied to analyze quantitatively the natural and anthropogenic factors that are affecting Aohan banner. The results indicated that: (1) After adding the terrain factors, the R² and residual predictive deviation (RPD) of the RF model increased by 1.178 and 0.39%, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.42 g/kg and 1.05 g/kg, respectively; (2) The spatial distribution of SOC was higher in the south and lower in the north; the negative growth of SOC accounted for 55.923% of the total area, showing a trend of degradation; (3) Precipitation was the main driving factor of SOC spatial variation in the typical agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China, which was also affected by temperature, elevation, soil type and soil texture (p < 0.01). (4). Anthropogenic factors (carbon input and gross domestic product (GDP)) had a greater impact on SOC than did climate factors (temperature and precipitation), making anthropogenic factors the dominant factors affecting SOC temporal variation (p < 0.01). The results of this work constitute a basis for a regional assessment of the temporal evolution of organic carbon in the soil surface, which is a key tool for monitoring the sustainable development of agropastoral ecotones.

Research on fusion modeling of high spatial and temporal resolution images typically uses MODIS products at 500 m and 250 m resolution with Landsat images at 30 m, but the effect on results of the date of reference images and the ‘mixed pixels’ nature of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images are not often considered. In this study, we evaluated those effects using the flexible spatiotemporal data fusion model (FSDAF) to generate fusion images with both high spatial resolution and frequent coverage over three cotton field plots in the San Joaquin Valley of California, USA. Landsat images of different dates (day-of-year (DOY) 174, 206, and 254, representing early, middle, and end stages of the growing season, respectively) were used as reference images in fusion with two MODIS products (MOD09GA and MOD13Q1) to produce new time-series fusion images with improved temporal sampling over that provided by Landsat alone. The impact on the accuracy of yield estimation of the different Landsat reference dates, as well as the degree of mixing of the two MODIS products, were evaluated. A mixed degree index (MDI) was constructed to evaluate the accuracy and time-series fusion results of the different cotton plots, after which the different yield estimation models were compared. The results show the following: (1) there is a strong correlation (above 0.6) between cotton yield and both the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat (NDVI_L30) and NDVI from the fusion of Landsat with MOD13Q1 (NDVI_F250). (2) Use of a mid-season Landsat image as reference for the fusion of MODIS imagery provides a better yield estimation, 14.73% and 17.26% higher than reference images from early or late in the season, respectively. (3) The accuracy of the yield estimation model of the three plots is different and relates to the MDI of the plots and the types of surrounding crops. These results can be used as a reference for data fusion for vegetation monitoring using remote sensing at the field scale.

Farmland shelterbelts are aimed at farmland protection and productivity improvement, environmental protection and ecological balance, as well as land use planning and management. Farmland shelterbelts play a vital role in determining the structural integrity and overall effectiveness of farmland, and assessing the dynamic changes within these protective forests accurately and swiftly is essential to maintaining their protective functions as well as for policy formulation and effectiveness evaluation in relevant departments. Traditional methods for extracting farmland shelterbelt information have faced significant challenges due to the large workload required and the inconsistencies in the accuracy of existing methods. For example, the existing vegetation index extraction methods often have significant errors, which remain unresolved. Therefore, developing a more efficient extraction method with greater accuracy is imperative. This study focused on Youyi Farm in Heilongjiang Province, China, utilizing satellite data with spatial resolutions ranging from 0.8 m (GF-7) to 30 m (Landsat). By taking into account the growth cycles of farmland shelterbelts and variations in crop types, the optimal temporal window for extraction is identified based on phenological analysis. The study introduced a new index—the Re-Modified Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (RMARI)—which is an improvement on existing vegetation indexes, such as the NDVI and the improved original ARI. Both the accuracy and extraction results showed significant improvements, and the feasibility of the RMARI was confirmed. The study proposed four extraction schemes for farmland shelterbelts: (1) spectral feature extraction, (2) extraction using vegetation indexes, (3) random forest extraction, and (4) RF combined with characteristic index bands. The extraction process was implemented on the GEE platform, and results from different spatial resolutions were compared. Results showed that (1) the bare soil period in May is the optimal time period for extracting farmland shelterbelts; (2) the RF method combined with characteristic index bands produces the best extraction results, effectively distinguishing shelterbelts from other land features; (3) the RMARI reduces background noise more effectively than the NDVI and ARI, resulting in more comprehensive extraction outcomes; and (4) among the satellite images analyzed—GF-7, Planet, Sentinel-2, and Landsat OLI 8—GF-7 achieves the highest extraction accuracy (with a Kappa coefficient of 0.95 and an OA of 0.97), providing the most detailed textural information. However, comprehensive analysis suggests that Sentinel-2 is more suitable for large-scale farmland shelterbelt information extraction. This study provides new approaches and technical support for periodic dynamic forestry surveys, providing valuable reference points for agricultural ecological research.

The redistribution of solar radiation, temperature, soil moisture and heat by topography affects the physical and chemical properties of the soil and the spatial distribution characteristics of crop growth. Analyses of the relationship between topography and these variables may help to improve the accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs). The purpose of correcting Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data is to obtain high-precision DEM data in cultivated land. A typical black soil area was studied. A high-precision reference DEM was generated from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and extensive measured ground elevation data. The normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), perpendicular drought index (PDI) extracted from SPOT-6 remote sensing images and potential solar radiation (PSR) extracted from SRTM. The interactions between topography and NDVI, PDI, and PSR were analyzed. The NDVI, PDI and PSR in June, July, August and September of 2016 and the SRTM were used as independent variables, and the UAV DEM was used as the dependent variable. Linear stepwise regression (LSR) and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) were used to establish an elevation prediction model. The results indicated that (1) The correlation between topography and NDVI, PSR, PDI was significant at 0.01 level. The PDI and PSR improved the spatial resolution of SRTM data and reduce the vertical error. (2) The BPNN (R²₁ = 0.98, root mean square error, RMSE₁ = 0.54) yielded a higher SRTM accuracy than did the studied linear model (RMSE₁ = 1.00, R²₁ = 0.90). (3) A series of significant improvements in the SRTM were observed when assessed with the reference DEMs for two different areas, with RMSE reductions of 91% (from 14.95 m to 1.23 m) and 93% (from 15.6 m to 0.94 m). The proposed method improved the accuracy of existing DEMs and could provide support for accurate farmland management.

Agricultural drought significantly impacts agricultural production, highlighting the need for accurate monitoring. Accurate agricultural-drought-monitoring models are critical for timely warning and prevention. The random forest (RF) is a popular artificial intelligence method but has not been extensively studied for agricultural drought monitoring. Here, multi-source remote sensing data, including surface temperature, vegetation index, and soil moisture data, were used as independent variables; the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI_3) was used as the dependent variable. Soil texture and terrain data were used as auxiliary variables. The bias-corrected RF model was used to construct a random forest synthesized drought index (RFSDI). The drought-degree determination coefficients (R2) of the training and test sets reached 0.86 and 0.89, respectively. The RFSDI and SPEI_3 fit closely, with a correlation coefficient (R) above 0.92. The RFSDI accurately reflected typical drought years and effectively monitored agricultural drought in Northeast China (NEC). In the past 18 years, agricultural drought in NEC has generally decelerated. The degree and scope of drought impacts from 2003 to 2010 were greater than those from 2010 to 2020. Agricultural drought occurrence in NEC was associated with dominant climatic variables such as precipitation (PRE), surface temperature (Ts), relative humidity (RHU), and sunshine duration (SSD), alongside elevation and soil texture differences. The agricultural drought occurrence percentage at 50–500 m elevations reached 94.91%, and the percentage of occurrence in loam and sandy soils reached 90.31%. Water and temperature changes were significantly correlated with the occurrence of agricultural drought. Additionally, NEC showed an alternating cycle of drought and waterlogging of about 10 years. These results have significant application potential for agricultural drought monitoring and drought prevention in NEC and demonstrate a new approach to comprehensively evaluating agricultural drought.