This study aims to investigate the relationship between returns and risk of Islamic stock under stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics within the scope of Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets. How do economic conditions affect the risks and returns of investors in the Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets? Verification of the veracity of the Islamic capital market serves as a more resilient option for alternative investments. This study uses Granger causality to determine exogenous and endogenous variables when building the model. The model that is formed is then analyzed using regression with dummy variables of stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics. The first research findings on differences in crisis, stable and pandemic times in the Asian stock market show that there is no significant difference in effect between stable times and during a crisis, but there are differences in the effect during stable and pandemic times. The second research finding states that the return on Asian market Shariah stocks has no influence on increasing or reducing the value of risk or value at risk. The third finding explains that Islamic stocks in Indonesia have a greater risk value during pandemics and crises than in stable times, but the effect of pandemic and crisis conditions is not as great as Islamic stocks in Asia as a whole. In order to stabilize markets and reduce risks, regulatory bodies and governments frequently employ a variety of actions during times of crisis. When applied to trading volume, risk, and return patterns, these findings can help determine the appropriate policy.

Research Originality: This study examines whether sukuk serves as a substitute or complement to banks, offering new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of Indonesia’s dual banking system under macroeconomic shocks. Research Objectives: To examine the evolving sukuk–bank performance relationship before and after the 2020 global recession, and its implications for financial stability. Research Methods: Quarterly data (2015–2023) from 6 Islamic and 15 conventional banks are analyzed using a dynamic panel System GMM model to address endogeneity and bank-specific heterogeneity. Empirical Results: Prior to the crisis, the development of the sukuk market significantly reduced the profitability of Islamic banks, indicating a substitution effect. After the crisis, the negative impact on Islamic banks weakened, suggesting partial complementarity. Inflation widened margins, money supply reduced them, and GDP growth benefited only conventional banks. Implications: Aligning sukuk market growth with banking strategies can strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and support stability in dual banking systems. JEL Classification: G21, G23, E44, E52 How to Cite:Nofrianto., Zaenal, M. H., Khairunnisa, D. A., & Sali, N. R. A. (2025). Substitution or Complementarity? Sukuk-Bank Performance Resilience in Indonesia’s Dual Banking System. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 563-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46415.

The fluctuating movement of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) is thought to be caused by domestic and international macroeconomic factors. Previous research revealed inconsistent results regarding the factors that influence ISSI price movements with the research time horizon generally in the short to medium term. This study aims to analyze and see the magnitude of the influence of domestic and international macroeconomic variables on ISSI. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method with monthly time series data from May 2011 to July 2022. The results of the study show that in the long-term, inflation, amount of money supply, world oil price, and Dow Jones Islamic Market US have a significant effect on ISSI. In the short term, only world gold price has a significant effect on ISSI. BI repo rate and exchange rate did not significantly affect ISSI in the short and long term. The Indonesian Sharia Stock Index reaches stability the fastest when it responds to shocks in gold prices. This study recommends the promotion of ISSI and Islamic finance, careful consideration in investment decisions by companies and investors, and the need for an early warning system in the Islamic capital market to anticipate the financial crisis.

This study investigates the factors influencing the hijrah community's decision to contribute to Zakat, Infaq, and Sadaqah (ZIS) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Drawing upon the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), we examine the impact of religiosity, altruism, subjective norms, behavioral control, and institutional image on ZIS payment decisions. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey of 255 members of the hijrah community and analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. Results indicate that religiosity, altruism, and subjective norms significantly influence the decision to pay ZIS, while behavioral control and institutional image do not. This suggests that individuals with strong religious convictions, driven by empathy and a sense of social responsibility, and influenced by their social networks, are more likely to contribute to ZIS, regardless of perceived ease or institutional factors. This preference for direct giving, motivated by trust and a desire for tangible impact, further explains the limited influence of institutional image. This study contributes to the understanding of ZIS giving behavior within the increasingly prominent hijrah community, particularly during times of crisis, and offers valuable insights for Islamic philanthropic institutions seeking to maximize ZIS collection by tailoring their strategies to align with the motivations and values of this growing segment of donors. While this study focuses specifically on the hijrah community in Indonesia, future research should explore these factors among diverse Muslim populations in various socio-cultural contexts to enhance the generalizability of the findings.