Context: Individualized management, incorporating papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) variant-specific risk, is conceivably a useful treatment strategy for PTC, which awaits comprehensive data demonstrating differential risks of PTC variants to support. Objective: This study sought to establish the differential clinicopathological risk of major PTC variants: conventional PTC (CPTC), follicular-variant PTC (FVPTC), and tall-cell PTC (TCPTC). Methods: This was a retrospective study of clinicopathological outcomes of 6282 PTC patients (4799 females and 1483 males) from 26 centers and The Cancer Genome Atlas in 14 countries with a median age of 44 years (interquartile range, 33–56 y) and median follow-up time of 37 months (interquartile range, 15–82 mo). Results: The cohort consisted of 4702 (74.8%) patients with CPTC, 1126 (17.9%) with FVPTC, and 239 (3.8%) with TCPTC. The prevalence of high-risk parameters was significantly different among the three variants, including extrathyroidal invasion, lymph node metastasis, stages III/IV, disease recurrence, mortality, and the use (need) of radioiodine treatment (all P < .001), being highest in TCPTC, lowest in FVPTC, and intermediate in CPTC, following an order of TCPTC > CPTC ≫ FVPTC. Recurrence and mortality in TCPTC, CPTC, and FVPTC were 27.3 and 6.7%, 16.1 and 2.5%, and 9.1 and 0.6%, corresponding to events per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 92.47 (64.66–132.26) and 24.61 (12.31–49.21), 34.46 (30.71–38.66), and 5.87 (4.37–7.88), and 24.73 (18.34–33.35) and 1.68 (0.54–5.21), respectively. Mortality hazard ratios of CPTC and TCPTC over FVPTC were 3.44 (95% CI, 1.07–11.11) and 14.96 (95% CI, 3.93–56.89), respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses showed the best prognosis in FVPTC, worst in TCPTC, and intermediate in CPTC in disease recurrence-free probability and disease-specific patient survival. This was particularly the case in patients at least 45 years old. Conclusion: This large multicenter study demonstrates differential prognostic risks of the three major PTC variants and establishes a unique risk order of TCPTC > CPTC ≫ FVPTC, providing important clinical implications for specific variant-based management of PTC.

Two strategies are often adopted for enrichment analysis of pathways: the analysis of all differentially expressed (DE) genes together or the analysis of up- and downregulated genes separately. However, few studies have examined the rationales of these enrichment analysis strategies. Using both microarray and RNA-seq data, we show that gene pairs with functional links in pathways tended to have positively correlated expression levels, which could result in an imbalance between the up- and downregulated genes in particular pathways. We then show that the imbalance could greatly reduce the statistical power for finding disease-associated pathways through the analysis of all-DE genes. Further, using gene expression profiles from five types of tumours, we illustrate that the separate analysis of up- and downregulated genes could identify more pathways that are really pertinent to phenotypic difference. In conclusion, analysing up- and downregulated genes separately is more powerful than analysing all of the DE genes together.

Purpose: For the past 65 years, patient age at diagnosis has been widely used as a major mortality risk factor in the risk stratification of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but whether this is generally applicable, particularly in patients with different BRAF genetic backgrounds, is unclear. The current study was designed to test whether patient age at diagnosis is a major mortality risk factor. Patients and Methods: We conducted a comparative study of the relationship between patient age at diagnosis and PTC-specific mortality with respect to BRAF status in 2,638 patients (623 men and 2,015 women) with a median age of 46 years (interquartile range, 35 to 58 years) at diagnosis and a median follow-up time of 58 months (interquartile range, 26 to 107 months). Eleven medical centers from six countries participated in this study. Results: There was a linear association between patient age and mortality in patients with BRAF V600E mutation, but not in patients with wild-type BRAF, in whom the mortality rate remained low and flat with increasing age. Kaplan-Meier survival curves rapidly declined with increasing age in patients with BRAF V600E mutation but did not decline in patients with wild-type BRAF, even beyond age 75 years. The association between mortality and age in patients with BRAF V600E was independent of clinicopathologic risk factors. Similar results were observed when only patients with the conventional variant of PTC were analyzed. Conclusion: The long-observed age-associated mortality risk in PTC is dependent on BRAF status; age is a strong, continuous, and independent mortality risk factor in patients with BRAF V600E mutation but not in patients with wild-type BRAF. These results question the conventional general use of patient age as a high-risk factor in PTC and call for differentiation between patients with BRAF V600E and wild-type BRAF when applying age to risk stratification and management of PTC.

Context Multifocality is often treated as a risk factor for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), prompting aggressive treatments, but its prognostic value remains unestablished. Objective To investigate the role of tumor multifocality in clinical outcomes of PTC. Methods Multicenter study of the relationship between multifocality and clinical outcomes of PTC in 2638 patients (623 men and 2015 women) with median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of 46 (35 to 58) years and median (IQR) follow-up time of 58 (26 to 107) months at 11 medical centers in six countries. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data were used for validation. Results Disease recurrence in multifocal and unifocal PTC was 198 of 1000 (19.8%) and 221 of 1624 (13.6%) (P < 0.001), with a hazard ratio of 1.55 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28 to 1.88], which became insignificant at 1.13 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.37) on multivariate adjustment. Similar results were obtained in PTC variants: conventional PTC, follicular-variant PTC, tall-cell PTC, and papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. There was no association between multifocality and mortality in any of these PTC settings, whereas there was a strong association between classic risk factors and cancer recurrence or mortality, which remained significant after multivariate adjustment. In 1423 patients with intrathyroidal PTC, disease recurrence was 20 of 455 (4.4%) and 41 of 967 (4.2%) (P = 0.892) and mortality was 0 of 455 (0.0%) and 3 of 967 (0.3%) (P = 0.556) in multifocal and unifocal PTC, respectively. The results were reproduced in 89,680 patients with PTC in the SEER database. Conclusions Tumor multifocality has no independent risk prognostic value in clinical outcomes of PTC; its indiscriminate use as an independent risk factor, prompting overtreatments of patients, should be avoided.

Precise risk stratification-based treatment of solitary intrathyroidal papillary thyroid cancer (SI-PTC) that is larger than 1.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less is undefined. A genetic-clinical risk study was performed on BRAF V600E in 955 patients (768 women and 187 men) with SI-PTC, with median age of 46 years and median clinical follow–up time of 64 months at 11 medical centers in six countries. The chi-square test or, for analyses with small numbers, Fisher’s exact test was performed to compare recurrence rates. Recurrence-free probability was estimated by Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis, and the independent effect of BRAF mutation on the recurrence was analyzed by Cox regression and Cox proportional hazard analyses. All statistical tests were two-sided. Recurrence of SI-PTC larger than 1.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less was 9.5% (21/221) vs 3.4% (11/319) in BRAF mutation vs wild-type BRAF patients, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.46 to 6.30) and a patient age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of 3.10 (95% CI = 1.49 to 6.45, P = .002). Recurrence rates of SI-PTC larger than 2.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less were 16.5% (13/79) vs 3.6% (5/139) in mutation vs wild-type patients (HR = 5.44, 95% CI = 1.93 to 15.34; and adjusted HR = 5.58, 95% CI = 1.96 to 15.85, P = .001). Recurrence rates of SI-PTC larger than 3.0 cm and 4 cm or less were 30.0% (6/20) vs 1.9% (1/54) in mutation vs wild-type patients (HR = 18.40, 95% CI = 2.21 to 152.98; and adjusted HR = 14.73, 95% CI = 1.74 to 124.80, P = .01). Recurrences of mutation-positive SI-PTC were comparable with those of counterpart invasive solitary PTC, around 20% to 30%, in tumors larger than 2.0 cm to 3.0 cm. BRAF mutation was associated with a statistically significant decrease in recurrence-free patient survival on KM analysis, particularly in SI-PTC larger than 2.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less. Similar results were obtained in conventional SI-PTC. The negative predictive values of BRAF mutation for recurrence were 97.8% (95% CI = 96.3% to 98.8%) for general SI-PTC and 98.2% (95% CI = 96.3% to 99.3%) for conventional SI-PTC. BRAF V600E identifies a subgroup of SI-PTC larger than 1.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less, particularly tumors larger than 2.0 cm and 4.0 cm or less, that has high risk for recurrence comparable with that of invasive solitary PTC, making more aggressive treatment reasonable.

A unique prognostic role of the genetic duet ofBRAFV600E andTERTpromoter mutations in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) has been recently established, but the role ofRASmutation in this genetic interplay remains to be established. Using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data of patients with PTC from 19 medical centers, we investigated the interactions among the three mutations in clinical outcomes of PTC. We found thatBRAFandRASmutations were mutually exclusive, but both were associated withTERTpromoter mutations, with the genetic duet ofBRAF/RASandTERTmutations occurring in 34/388 (8.76%) patients.BRAF/RASorTERTmutation had no or minimal effect alone, whereas coexistingBRAF/RASandTERTmutations had a robust synergistic effect on poor clinicopathologic outcomes of PTC, including disease recurrence and patient mortality. For example, PTC recurrence rate was 52% with coexistingBRAFV600E/RASandTERTpromoter mutations vs 6.9% with no mutation, corresponding to a HR of 8.17 (95% CI 3.09–21.58), which remained significant at 14.71 (95% CI 2.79–77.61) after adjustment for clinicopathologic factors and institution.BRAF/RASmutation orTERTmutation alone minimally affected Kaplan–Meier patient survival curves, whereas the genetic duet was associated with a sharp curve decline. Thus, by confirming and expanding previous findings in single-institution studies, this multicenter data analysis establishes a six-genotype genetic prognostic model for poor outcomes of PTC with a risk order of genetic duet ofBRAFV600E/RASmutation andTERTmutation >>>>BRAFV600E = TERTmutation alone >RASmutation alone = wild-type genes.