Background: Senna didymobotrya is a native African flowering shrub. It is suspected that climate change encourages the introduction and spread of invasive alien species. The possible invasion of S. didymobotrya across the continent is expected to increase in the future due to ongoing climate change. Nonetheless, there is still paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which the changing climate contributes to the surge of the flowering shrub. This study, therefore, investigated the present and potential invasion of S. didymobotrya using the species distribution model under changing climate conditions. The two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and eight bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable were used to simulate the current and future (2050s and 2070s) invasion of S. didymobotrya in Africa. The model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). Results: The results of the study showed that under the current climatic conditions, 18% of Africa is suitable for the establishment and invasion of S. didymobotrya. The most suitable hotspot for S. didymobotrya invasion is eastern Africa, followed by southern Africa. The predicted model showed that by 2050, 3.3% and 3.12% of the continent would be highly suitable areas for the invasion of the species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the 2070s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the highly suitable area would be 3.13% and 2.7%, respectively. In relation to the current suitability, the cumulative projected areas of the low and moderate suitability class under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will rise by the years 2050 and 2070. However, under both RCPs, the non-suitable area for S. didymobotrya invasion would gradually decrease. Conclusions: From the findings, it can be concluded that the ecosystem’s vulnerability to S. didymobotrya invasion under future climatic conditions will proliferate significantly. Hence, to prevent the projected harm to biodiversity and ecosystem services, governments need to focus their future biodiversity management and policy directions on the means and strategies of minimizing the invasion and the distribution rate of S. didymobotrya across habitat types.

The study aimed to investigate effectiveness of forest management zoning in conserving biodiversity of Mabira forest reserve. The study sites buffer, production, and strict nature reserve management zones were purposively selected. This was undertaken through investigating woody species...

Bamboo is the world's most widely exploited plant resource, with significant socio-economic and cultural values. In most parts of Africa, the population is in jeopardy due to the high pressure from human and natural forces. Of these, Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) is among the threatened bamboo species. Furthermore, the effect of climate change on the distribution of bamboo has not yet been adequately studied. Therefore, this study aims to model and map the current and future distribution of O. abyssinica in Africa under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), such as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The future projections were done for the years 2050 and 2070 using SDM ensemble approaches. To model the current and future distribution of O. abyssinica in Africa, 737 presence data were collected from various sources. For this study, a total of eight (8) temperature and precipitation-related variables were used as inputs to the Species Distribution Model (SDM). Finally, the model performance was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC) and true skills statistics (TSS) measures of statistics. Our results showed an upsurge in the distribution of O. abyssinica across the study area for the low and moderate suitability classes for the climatic conditions considered in this study. However, a steady shrinkage in the habitat was found for the higher suitability classes. The model indicated climatic-related factors such as precipitation during the cold and warm quarters (57.8%), followed by mean temperature during the coldest quarter, isothermality (41.9%) and topographic factors such as elevation and slope (31.6%) were identified as the main limiting factors for the growth of O. abyssinica. Precipitation and temperature during the dry period, on the other hand, had the least impact on the growth of O. abyssinica. Except for RCP2.6, the majority of south-western African countries and the Sahel region remain the most climatically stable ecosystems for O. abyssinica growth under the three climatic scenarios RCP45, RCP6 and RCP8.5. Our results revealed a steady increase in the future suitable habitat for O. abyssinica all over the continent under the considered climatic scenarios. Therefore, to support the future restoration of dryland ecosystems, countries should scheme a restoration policy that allows the sustainable utilization of O. abyssinica tree species. The future policy direction for biodiversity conservation and management should encourage the use of O. abyssinica as a major plant species for improving the livelihoods of people living in dryland areas.