Aksu City, located in the southern region of Xinjiang, China, holds the position of being the fifth largest city in Xinjiang. It holds significant ecological importance as a vital functional region for the management of desertification in China. To safeguard the ecological security of Xinjiang and preserve the ecological stability of Aksu City, it is crucial to examine the relationship between ecological service value and ecological risk, as well as the geographical and temporal changes in land use characteristics in Aksu City. This study examines the evolutionary characteristics and spatial correlation between ecological service value and ecological risk in Aksu City, using Aksu City as a case study. The analysis is based on five periods of land use data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. The study revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value in Aksu City from 2000 to 2020 using the landscape pattern index, ecological service value estimation, and ecological risk index. In addition, the study explored the interrelationship between ecological service value and ecological risk. The findings indicated that: (1) Bare land constituted the predominant land use category in Aksu City, accounting for over 81% of the total land use transfer over a 20-year period, encompassing a total area of 459.83 km². (2) The total ecological service value (ESV) in the area experienced a decline of CNY 3.41 × 10⁸ within the study’s time frame, exhibiting a decrease rate of 6.73%. Notably, grass and shrubland emerged as the primary contributor to the ESV, accounting for 33.25% of the total. (3) The ecological risk index (ERI) in Aksu City, within the period of 2000–2020, showed an increase in the interval from 0.2686 to 0.2877. The results indicated a decline in the overall ecological condition. The ecological risk level in Aksu City from 2000 to 2020 was dominated by lower and medium ecological risks. (4) Moran’s I values in Aksu City between 2000 and 2020 ranged from 0.428 to 0.443, which suggested a positive spatial correlation between ESV and ERI in the study area. The primary factor contributing to the heightened ecological risk in the study region was predominantly attributed to human activities such as urban expansion, agricultural production, and overgrazing.

One of the key elements influencing carbon emissions is changes in land use, which affects the roles of carbon sources and sinks. We calculated the carbon emissions from land use in Xinjiang, constructed a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR), and investigated the spatio-temporal evolutionary trajectory and heterogeneity of carbon emissions based on the land use data of three periods from 2000 to 2020 and the socio-economic and energy data of the same period. The results show the following: ① in Xinjiang, the area of water, forests, grasslands, and idle land declined between 2000 and 2020, while the area of construction and agricultural land increased; ② Xinjiang’s land-use-related carbon emissions are rising annually. The primary driver of this expansion is the region’s growing area of construction land; ③ the degree of economic development, the amount of land used for building, and the degree of urbanization are the primary factors influencing carbon emissions in Xinjiang; and ④ In Xinjiang, there is a clear spatial heterogeneity in the factors that influence carbon emissions. Additionally, different influencing factors have different effects on emissions, depending on the region and stage of development, indicating that the level of resources and the region’s economic center of gravity have different effects on emissions.