Land use profoundly impacts the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Optimizing land use patterns is a vital approach to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. Using Shandong Province as a case study, this research evaluates the impacts of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on regional carbon storage and emissions. Employing a coupled PLUS–InVEST–GM(1,1) model, simulations were conducted for scenarios including the natural scenario (NS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), high-speed development scenario (HDS), and low-carbon scenario (LCS), to assess LUCC and changes in carbon storage and emissions from 2030 to 2060 under these scenarios. The findings indicate that due to the expansion of construction land and significant declines in arable and grassland areas, carbon emissions increased by 40,436.44 × 10⁴ t over a 20-year period, while carbon storage decreased by 4881.13 × 10⁴ t. Notably, forests contributed the most to carbon sequestration, while construction land emerged as the primary source of carbon emissions. Simulating four scenarios demonstrates that measures such as protecting cropland, expanding forest, grassland, and aquatic areas, controlling construction land expansion, and promoting intensive development positively affect emission reductions and carbon sequestration in Shandong. These findings underscore the importance of rational planning of land use patterns, which can enhance contributions to carbon neutrality by harmonizing the relationships among cropland protection, ecological conservation, and economic development.

The research on the ecological protection of cultivated land has gradually become a focus and frontier of cultivated land protection. Constructing an ecological network of a cultivated land system is important to improve the effect of cultivated land ecological protection. In this study, the supply-demand ratio of five ecosystem services was calculated from 2000 to 2020 in Shandong Province, a major grain-producing area in China. The morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) model was used to construct the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) the areas with a higher supply and demand ratio of various ecosystem services of cultivated land in Shandong Province are distributed in southern and southwestern areas. (2) The ecological source of cultivated land in Shandong Province has decreased by about 7000 km² from 2000 to 2020, and the fragmentation trend is obvious. (3) The total length of the ecological corridors is 798.5 km². The majority of these corridors are located in central and southern Shandong. The ideas and conclusions of this study are important for the formulation of ecological protection policies for regional cultivated land systems.