Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO₂ flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO₂ sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO₂ losses have substantially impacted the CO₂ balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.

Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thawed soil carbon stocks, we quantified subsidence using high‐accuracy GPS and identified its environmental drivers in a permafrost warming experiment near the southern limit of permafrost in Alaska. With permafrost temperatures near 0°C, 10.8 cm of subsidence was observed in control plots over 9 years. Experimental air and soil warming increased subsidence by five times and created inundated microsites. Across treatments, ice and soil loss drove 85–91% and 9–15% of subsidence, respectively. Accounting for subsidence, permafrost thawed between 19% (control) and 49% (warming) deeper than active layer thickness indicated, and the amount of newly thawed carbon within the active layer was between 37% (control) and 113% (warming) greater. As additional carbon thaws as the active layer deepens, carbon fluxes to the atmosphere and lateral transport of carbon in groundwater could increase. The magnitude of this impact is uncertain at the landscape scale, though, due to limited subsidence measurements. Therefore, to determine the full extent of permafrost thaw across the circumpolar region and its feedback on the carbon cycle, it is necessary to quantify subsidence more broadly across the circumpolar region.

Warming of the Arctic can stimulate microbial decomposition and release of permafrost soil carbon (C) as greenhouse gases, and thus has the potential to influence climate change. At the same time, plant growth can be stimulated and offset C release. This study presents a 15‐year time series comprising chamber and eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem C exchange in a tundra ecosystem in Alaska where permafrost has been degrading due to regional warming. The site was a carbon dioxide source to the atmosphere with a cumulative total loss of 781.6 g C m⁻² over the study period. Both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) were already likely higher than historical levels such that increases in R_eco losses overwhelmed GPP gains in most years. This shift to a net C source to the atmosphere likely started in the early 1990s when permafrost was observed to warm and thaw at the site. Shifts in the plant community occur more slowly and are likely to constrain future GPP increases as compared to more rapid shifts in the microbial community that contribute to increased R_eco. Observed rates suggest that cumulative net soil C loss of 4.18–10.00 kg C m⁻²—8%–20% of the current active layer soil C pool—could occur from 2020 to the end of the century. This amount of permafrost C loss to the atmosphere represents a significant accelerating feedback to climate change if it were to occur at a similar magnitude across the permafrost region.

Abrupt thaw could cause permafrost ecosystems to release more carbon than is predicted from gradual thaw alone. However, thermokarst feature mapping is limited in scope, and observed responses of carbon fluxes to abrupt thaw are variable. We developed a thermokarst detection algorithm that identifies thermokarst features from a single elevation dataset with 71.5 percent accuracy and applied it in Healy, Alaska. Additionally, we investigated the landscape-level variation in carbon dioxide and methane fluxes by extent of abrupt thaw using eddy covariance. Seven percent of the site was classified as thermokarst. Water tracks were the most extensive form of thermokarst, although small pits were much more numerous. Abrupt thaw was positively correlated with carbon uptake during the growing season, when increases in gross primary productivity outpaced increases in ecosystem respiration in vegetation-dense water tracks. However, this was outweighed by higher carbon release in thermokarst features during the nongrowing season. Additionally, abrupt thaw was positively correlated with methane production nearly year-round. Our findings support the hypothesis that abrupt thaw of permafrost carbon will contribute to the permafrost climate feedback above and beyond that associated with gradual thaw and highlights the need to map thermokarst and incorporate abrupt thaw into Earth System Models.