Estimation of population sizes and species ranges is central to population and conservation biology. It is widely appreciated that imperfect detection of mobile animals must be accounted for when estimating population size from presence–absence data. Sessile organisms also are imperfectly detected, but correction for detection probability in estimating their population sizes is rare. We illustrate challenges of detection probability and population estimation of sessile organisms using censuses of red wood ant (Formica rufa‐group) nests as a case study. These ants, widespread in the northern hemisphere, can make large (up to 2 m tall), highly visible nests. Using data from a mapping campaign by eight observers with varying experience of sixteen 3600‐m² plots in the Black Forest region of southwest Germany, we compared three different statistical approaches (a nest‐level data‐augmentation patch‐occupancy model with event‐specific covariates; a plot‐level Bayesian and maximum‐likelihood model; nonparametric Chao‐type estimators) for quantifying detection probability of sessile organisms. Detection probabilities by individual observers of red wood ant nests ranged from 0.31 to 0.64 for small nests, depending on observer experience and nest size (detection rates were approximately 0.17 higher for large nests), but not on habitat characteristics (forest type, local vegetation). Robust estimation of population density of sessile organisms—even highly apparent ones such as red wood ant nests—thus requires estimation of detection probability, just as it does when estimating population density of rare or cryptic species. Our models additionally provide approaches to calculate the number of observers needed for a required level of accuracy. Estimating detection probability is vital not only when censuses are conducted by experts, but also when citizen‐scientists are engaged in mapping and monitoring of both common and rare species.

Short-term earthquake predictions with an advance warning of several hours or days are currently not possible due to both incomplete understanding of the complex tectonic processes and inadequate observations. Abnormal animal behaviors before earthquakes have been reported previously, but create problems in monitoring and reliability. The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)). They have stationary mounds on tectonically active, gas-bearing fault systems. These faults may be potential earthquake areas. For three years (2009–2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras with both a color and an infrared sensor. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the more than 45,000 hours of video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ants’ behavior will be carried out. In addition, other parameters (climate, geotectonic and biological), which may influence behavior, will be included in the analysis.

Ecological studies often are subjected to unintentional biases, suggesting that improved research designs for hypothesis testing should be used. Double-blind ecological studies are rare but necessary to minimize sampling biases and omission errors, and improve the reliability of research. We used a double-blind design to evaluate associations between nests of red wood ants (Formica rufa, RWA) and the distribution of tectonic faults. We randomly sampled two regions in western Denmark to map the spatial distribution of RWA nests. We then calculated nest proximity to the nearest active tectonic faults. Red wood ant nests were eight times more likely to be found within 60 m of known tectonic faults than were random points in the same region but without nests. This pattern paralleled the directionality of the fault system, with NNE–SSW faults having the strongest associations with RWA nests. The nest locations were collected without knowledge of the spatial distribution of active faults thus we are confident that the results are neither biased nor artefactual. This example highlights the benefits of double-blind designs in reducing sampling biases, testing controversial hypotheses, and increasing the reliability of the conclusions of research.

We measured methane (CH₄) and stable carbon isotope of methane (δ¹³C-CH₄) concentrations in ambient air and within a red wood-ant (RWA; Formica polyctena) nest in the Neuwied Basin (Germany) using high-resolution in-situ sampling to detect microbial, thermogenic, and abiotic fault-related micro-seepage of CH₄. Methane degassing from RWA nests was not synchronized with earth tides, nor was it influenced by micro-earthquake degassing or concomitantly measured RWA activity. Two δ¹³C-CH₄ signatures were identified in nest gas: −69‰ and −37‰. The lower peak was attributed to microbial decomposition of organic matter within the RWA nest, in line with previous observations that RWA nests are hot-spots of microbial CH₄. The higher peak has not been reported in previous studies. We attribute this peak to fault-related CH₄ emissions moving via fault networks into the RWA nest, which could originate either from thermogenic or abiotic CH₄ formation. Sources of these micro-seepages could be Devonian schists, iron-bearing “Klerf Schichten”, or overlapping micro-seepage of magmatic CH₄ from the Eifel plume. Given the abundance of RWA nests on the landscape, their role as sources of microbial CH₄ and biological indicators for abiotically-derived CH₄ should be included in estimation of methane emissions that are contributing to climatic change.

Geochemical tracers of crustal fluids (CO₂, He, Rn) provide a useful tool for the identification of buried fault structures. We acquired geochemical data during 7-months of continual sampling to identify causal processes underlying correlations between ambient air and degassing patterns of three gases (CO₂, He, Rn) in a nest of red wood ants (Formica polyctena; “RWA”) and the soil at Goloring in the Neuwied Basin, a part of the East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF). We explored whether temporal relations and degassing rhythms in soil and nest gas concentrations could be indicators of hidden faults through which the gases migrate to the surface from depth. In nest gas, the coupled system of CO₂-He and He concentrations exceeding atmospheric standards 2-3 fold suggested that RWA nests may be biological indicators of hidden degassing faults and fractures at small scales. Equivalently periodic degassing infradian rhythms in the RWA nest, soil, and three nearby minerals springs suggested NW-SE and NE-SW tectonic linkages. Because volcanic activity in the EEVF is dormant, more detailed information on the EEVF’s tectonic, magmatic, and degassing systems and its active tectonic fault zones are needed. Such data could provide additional insights into earthquake processes that are related to magmatic processes at the lower crust.

We present a geochemical dataset acquired during continual sampling over 7 months (bi-weekly) and 4 weeks (every 8 h) in the Neuwied Basin, a part of the East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF, Germany). We used a combination of geochemical, geophysical, and statistical methods to describe and identify potential causal processes underlying the correlations of degassing patterns of CO₂, He, Rn, and tectonic processes in three investigated mineral springs (Nette, Kärlich and Kobern). We provide for the first time, temporal analyses of periodic degassing patterns (1 day and 2–6 days) in springs. The temporal fluctuations in cyclic behavior of 4–5 days that we recorded had not been observed previously but may be attributed to a fundamental change in either gas source processes, subsequent gas transport to the surface, or the influence of volcano–tectonic earthquakes. Periods observed at 10 and 15 days may be related to discharge pulses of magma in the same periodic rhythm. We report the potential hint that deep low-frequency (DLF) earthquakes might actively modulate degassing. Temporal analyses of the CO₂–He and CO₂–Rn couples indicate that all springs are interlinked by previously unknown fault systems. The volcanic activity in the EEVF is dormant but not extinct. To understand and monitor its magmatic and degassing systems in relation to new developments in DLF-earthquakes and magmatic recharging processes and to identify seasonal variation in gas flux, we recommend continual monitoring of geogenic gases in all available springs taken at short temporal intervals.