Socio-ecological systems (SESs) in arid regions have experienced multiple transformations throughout history due to human activities and natural forces. However, few studies have used the resilience cycle model to explain the resilience status and determinants of SESs over the past two millennia. This study proposes the adaptive cycle resilience (ACR) perspective to investigate regime shifts of socio-ecological system interactions in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past two millennia. An ACR framework combining a piecewise linear regression model (PLR), ACR theory, and physical resilience models has been built to assess and quantify socio-ecological system resilience. Key indicators such as climate variability, settlement numbers, war frequency, glacier accumulation, and oasis area changes are identified and quantified to evaluate SESs adaptability and transformability. Glacier accumulation serves as a proxy for long-term climate change, while oasis area changes reflect the direct impact of human activities and environmental feedback on ecosystem productivity. Population and war indicators provide insights into social system stability and the impact of conflicts on SESs dynamics. The findings reveal that the 7th century and 1850s are critical points of regime shifts in the ACR. 200s BC-350s AD and 700s AD-900s AD are in the forward loop (r-K) period of the ACR. 350s AD-700s AD and 900s AD-1850s AD are the adaptive resilience backward loop (Ω-α) phase. Assessing the historical socio-ecological system resilience and identifying key transition points can inform proactive measures to mitigate potential regime shifts. Combining historical data with resilience theory provides a deep understanding of the ACR of SESs and their driving factors. This enriches the theoretical understanding of SESs and offers a robust case study for future resilience assessments and scenario analyses in arid regions.

Oases are the core carriers of societal development in arid regions, and their spatial patterns have changed significantly, driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates historical documents, archeological materials, maps, and remote sensing data. The changes in the temperature, precipitation, settlements, war frequency, and oasis area were identified by combining quantitative and qualitative methods, and the partial least squares path model (PLS-PM) was utilized to quantify the natural and human driving factors. The results show that the oasis development in the Tarim and Heihe River Basins exhibits distinct spatio-temporal variability and phased characteristics and is comprehensively shaped by both natural and anthropogenic drivers. The Tarim Basin’s natural oases demonstrate a “fluctuating recovery” pattern. The cultivated oases gradually expanded. The natural oases within the Heihe River Basin have persistently decreased, and cultivated oases show a “U”-shaped evolution pattern. This reflects the strong intervention of human reclamation in the cultivated oases. The introverted social ecosystem has endowed the Tarim River Basin with the ability to self-repair and achieve a periodic recovery. The Heihe River Basin serves as a strategic corridor for national external engagement, relying on regime stability. A regime collapse led to its lack of a stable recovery period. The PLS-PM reveals that the Tarim River Basin oasis evolution is predominantly driven by climate fluctuations. The path coefficient of natural factors for artificial oases is 0.63, and extreme drought leads to natural oasis contraction. The human influence dominates the Heihe River Basin, with a −0.93 path coefficient linking the cultivated oasis area to human factors. The frequency of wars (load 0.74) and changes in settlements (load −0.92) are the key factors. This study provides a powerful case for the analysis of the evolution and driving mechanism of future oases in drylands.