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The magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patterns is critically needed for adaptation and mitigation planning. Using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenarios at the mid-future time period, 2021/2025-2050 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) dataset; this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the projected changes in rainfall characteristics in three agro-ecological zones of the Niger River Basin. The results show an increase in the average rainfall of about 5%, 10–20% and 10–15% for the Southern Guinea, Northern Guinea and Sahelian zones, respectively, relative to the baseline, 1981/1985–2005. On the other hand, the change in future rainfall intensities are largely significant and the frequency of rainfall at the low, heavy and extreme rainfall events in the future decrease at most locations in the Niger River Basin. The results also showed an increase in the frequency of moderate rainfall events at all locations in the basin. However, in the Northern Guinea and Sahel locations, there is an increase in the frequency of projected heavy and extreme rainfall events. The results reveal a shift in the future onset/cessation and a shortening of the duration of the rainy season in the basin. Specifically, the mean date of rainfall onset will be delayed by between 10 and 32 days. The mean onset of cessation will also be delayed by between 10 and 21 days. It is posited that the projected rainfall changes pose serious risks for food security of the region and may require changes in the cropping patterns and management.
Uvirkaa Akumaga; Aondover Tarhule. Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 497 .
AMA StyleUvirkaa Akumaga, Aondover Tarhule. Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Atmosphere. 2018; 9 (12):497.
Chicago/Turabian StyleUvirkaa Akumaga; Aondover Tarhule. 2018. "Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa." Atmosphere 9, no. 12: 497.
Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25–2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25–2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region.
Uvirkaa Akumaga; Aondover Tarhule; Claudio Piani; Bouba Traoré; Ado A. Yusuf. Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Agronomy 2018, 8, 11 .
AMA StyleUvirkaa Akumaga, Aondover Tarhule, Claudio Piani, Bouba Traoré, Ado A. Yusuf. Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Agronomy. 2018; 8 (2):11.
Chicago/Turabian StyleUvirkaa Akumaga; Aondover Tarhule; Claudio Piani; Bouba Traoré; Ado A. Yusuf. 2018. "Utilizing Process-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Adaptation Options in the Niger River Basin, West Africa." Agronomy 8, no. 2: 11.