Angiosperms are the cornerstone of most terrestrial ecosystems and human livelihoods^1,2. A robust understanding of angiosperm evolution is required to explain their rise to ecological dominance. So far, the angiosperm tree of life has been determined primarily by means of analyses of the plastid genome^3,4. Many studies have drawn on this foundational work, such as classification and first insights into angiosperm diversification since their Mesozoic origins^5–7. However, the limited and biased sampling of both taxa and genomes undermines confidence in the tree and its implications. Here, we build the tree of life for almost 8,000 (about 60%) angiosperm genera using a standardized set of 353 nuclear genes⁸. This 15-fold increase in genus-level sampling relative to comparable nuclear studies⁹ provides a critical test of earlier results and brings notable change to key groups, especially in rosids, while substantiating many previously predicted relationships. Scaling this tree to time using 200 fossils, we discovered that early angiosperm evolution was characterized by high gene tree conflict and explosive diversification, giving rise to more than 80% of extant angiosperm orders. Steady diversification ensued through the remaining Mesozoic Era until rates resurged in the Cenozoic Era, concurrent with decreasing global temperatures and tightly linked with gene tree conflict. Taken together, our extensive sampling combined with advanced phylogenomic methods shows the deep history and full complexity in the evolution of a megadiverse clade.

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

Extinction threatens at least 60% of wild coffee species, including those that are key to the future of the global coffee sector.

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene’.

The phylogenetic relationships between species of Coffea and Psilanthus remain poorly understood, owing to low levels of sequence variation recovered in previous studies, coupled with relatively limited species sampling. In this study, the relationships between Coffea and Psilanthus species are assessed based on substantially increased molecular sequence data and greatly improved species sampling. Phylogenetic relationships are assessed using parsimony, with sequence data from four plastid regions [trnL–F intron, trnL–F intergenic spacer (IGS), rpl16 intron and accD–psa1 IGS], and the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of nuclear rDNA (ITS 1/5·8S/ITS 2). Supported lineages in Coffea are discussed within the context of geographical correspondence, biogeography, morphology and systematics. Several major lineages with geographical coherence, as identified in previous studies based on smaller data sets, are supported. Other lineages with either geographical or ecological correspondence are recognized for the first time. Coffea subgenus Baracoffea is shown to be monophyletic, but Coffea subgenus Coffea is paraphyletic. Sequence data do not substantiate the monophyly of either Coffea or Psilanthus. Low levels of sequence divergence do not allow detailed resolution of relationships within Coffea, most notably for species of Coffea subgenus Coffea occurring in Madagascar. The origin of C. arabica by recent hybridization between C. canephora and C. eugenioides is supported. Phylogenetic separation resulting from the presence of the Dahomey Gap is inferred based on sequence data from Coffea.