In recent years, frequent external emergencies have continuously impacted China’s pig industry chain. As the scale and standardization of pig farming in China have increasingly improved, pig futures have met the conditions for good operation and were listed for trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on 8 January 2021. To study the impact and influence of African swine fever, COVID-19, and the listing of pig futures on the price transmission mechanism at various stages of China’s pig industry, weekly price data from the pig industry from January 2015 to June 2023 were selected to construct an SV-TVP-VAR model for analysis. The empirical results showed that the shocks of African swine fever and COVID-19 caused price fluctuations at various stages of the pig industry chain, while price fluctuations significantly decreased after the listing of pig futures. Therefore, the introduction of pig futures effectively alleviated the price fluctuations at various stages of the pig industry chain following the shocks of African swine fever and COVID-19, and relevant policy recommendations are proposed accordingly.

Amidst escalating global policy uncertainties and the painful transformation phase of the Chinese economy, studying the time-varying characteristics of risk spillover among the real economy, real estate market, and financial system holds substantial practical relevance for preventing and resolving significant systemic risks. This paper employs the TVP-VAR-DY model, selects indices from the real sectors to construct a risk spillover index for the real economy, and incorporates indices from the real estate and financial sectors to develop a trivariate SV-TVP-VAR model for empirically analyzing the time-varying nature of risk spillover relationships among these variables. This study reveals that risk spillover among different sectors of the real economy exhibits asymmetry and volatility, with the industrial sector experiencing the highest degree of risk spillover. The prosperity of the real estate market consistently aligns with that of the financial system; however, shocks during periods of risk accumulation in the real estate market significantly amplify risks in the real economy. The financial system serves the real economy, which suffers lesser impacts. Nonetheless, post-2008, the financial system’s support for the real estate market has gradually diminished. Crises exacerbate the extent of risk spillover, but the causative factors and socio-economic context create heterogeneity in fluctuations. Based on these findings, in response to the current real estate shock, the Chinese government should discuss the real economy, the real estate industry, and the financial system within the same research framework. Policies should primarily focus on fiscal measures to promote the recovery of the real economy more rapidly. Additionally, by allowing local governments to implement tailored policies based on local conditions, potential homebuying demand has been effectively stimulated.