Analyzing the impacts of climate change on phytosanitary problems in Brazil is crucial due to the country’s special role in global food security as one of the largest producers of essential commodities. This review focuses on the effects of climate change on plant diseases and discusses its main challenges in light of Brazil’s diverse agricultural landscape. To assess the risk of diseases caused by fungi, bacteria, viruses, oomycetes, nematodes, and spiroplasms, we surveyed 304 pathosystems across 32 crops of economic importance from 2005 to 2022. Results show that diseases caused by fungi account for 79% of the pathosystems evaluated. Predicting the occurrence of diseases in a changing climate is a complex challenge, and the continuity of this work is strategic for Brazil’s agricultural defense. The future risk scenarios analyzed here aim to help guide disease mitigation for cropping systems. Despite substantial progress and ongoing efforts, further research will be needed to effectively prevent economic and environmental damage.

The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the occurrence of grapevine downy mildew in Brazil. Seedlings containing four to six leaves were sprayed with a sporangia suspension containing 10⁵ sporangia per milliliter. After spraying, the seedlings were subjected to temperatures of 26, 28, 29.1, 30.4, and 31.8°C for 24 hours. The percentage of diseased leaf area and the latent period were evaluated. Maps of the geographic and temporal distribution of the disease were made considering the monthly average of the mean air temperature and leaf wetness duration for the reference climate or climate normal (1961-1990) and the future climates (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100), considering the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios, designed by the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Favorability ranges were set and used in logic functions of the geografical information system (GIS) to generate monthly maps for grapevine downy mildew. Rising temperatures interfered with the grapevine downy mildew infections, reduced the disease severity, and increased the latent period. Future climate scenarios indicate a reduction of favorability of downy mildew in Brazil, with variability in the different grape producing regions.

A ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim está diretamente relacionada aos elementos climáticos. Desta maneira, mapas de distribuição geográfica e temporal baseados em dados do clima contribuem com informações sobre o comportamento de patossistemas frente às mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a evolução da favorabilidade climática à ocorrência da mancha preta para as principais regiões produtoras de amendoim da Argentina e do Brasil em função das mudanças climáticas. Na elaboração dos mapas foram considerados os meses de janeiro a março e empregada a metodologia de análise integrada das projeções climáticas e do problema fitossanitário com suporte do geoprocessamento. Foram considerados o clima normal (1961-1990) e o clima futuro (201-2040, 2041-270 e 2071-2100). Considerando as particularidades da doença nas áreas produtoras de cada país, diferentes regras em critérios de lógica matemática de SIG foram aplicadas para a Argentina e o Brasil, pois elas incorporam efeitos diversos da interação das características próprias do patógeno virulento, hospedeiro suscetível e características ambientais. Os cenários climáticos futuros apontam para o aumento da favorabilidade para a ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim para as principais regiões produtoras da Argentina e do Brasil.Evolution of peanut black spot in the main producing areas of Argentina and Brazil under climate changeABSTRACTThe occurrence of peanut black spot is directly related to climatic elements. Thus, the elaboration of maps of geographic and temporal distribution contributes information on the behavior of pathosystems in the face of climate change. Thus, the objective of this work was to evaluate the evolution of climate favorability to the occurrence of black spot for the main producing regions of Argentina and Brazil due to climate change. In the elaboration of the maps, the main peanut producing areas of Argentina and Brazil were considered and the months from January to March. For the elaboration of the maps it was used the methodology of integrated analysis of the climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by the geoprocessing. Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (201-2040, 2041-270 and 2071-2100) were considered. Different rules were adopted for Argentina and Brazil, as they incorporate the particularities of the disease in the producing areas of each country, as an effect of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host and environment characteristics. Future climate scenarios point to an increase in the likelihood of peanut black spot in Argentina and Brazil.Keywords: Arachis hypogea L., Cercosporidium personatum, plant disease, geoprocessing.

Devido à intensa relação entre o ambiente e as doenças de plantas, alterações na distribuição geográfica e temporal das doenças podem ocorrer como impacto das mudanças climáticas. A vitivinicultura tem crescido de importância nos últimos anos no Brasil e as doenças constituem um sério problema para a cultura. O oídio, causado pelo fungo Uncinula necator, é uma das principais doenças que afetam a videira. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o impacto potencial das mudanças climáticas na favorabilidade do oídio da videira no país, baseado em critérios de lógica matemática, associando combinações de faixas de variáveis climáticas com classes de favorabilidade e utilizando as ferramentas de SIG - Sistema de Informações Geográfica. O estudo considerou os meses ao longo do ano dos períodos de 1961-1990 e de 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, nos cenários B1 e A2 do IPCC. A temperatura média e a umidade relativa foram os dados climáticos básicos de entrada no banco de dados do SIG e foram obtidos de projeções dos modelos climáticos globais do Quarto Relatório de Avaliação do IPCC. Os mapas de distribuição geográfica de respostas favoráveis à doença mostram que haverá alteração no futuro, com aumento da área favorável à sua incidência no Brasil, em ambos os cenários. Due to the intense relationship between environment and plant diseases, changes in the geographical and temporal distribution of diseases may occur as an impact of climate change. Viticulture in Brazil has been growing in importance in recent years and disease are a serious crop issue. Powdery mildew, also known as oidium, caused by the fungus Uncinula necator, is one of the main diseases affecting this crop. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the favorability of grape oidium in Brazil, based on criterions of mathematical logic associating combinations of ranges of climate variables with classes of favorability and using Geographical Information System - GIS tools. The study considered the months throughout the year of periods of 1961-1990 and 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, scenarios B1 and A2 of IPCC. Mean temperature and relative humidity were the basic weather data entered in the GIS database, obtained by projections of global climate models from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Maps of geographic distribution of favorable responses for the disease show that in the future there will be change, increasing the favorable area for their incidence in the Brazil, in both scenarios. Keywords: Vitis spp., Uncinula necator, plant disease, Geographical Information System.

Los fitopatógenos y las plagas están entre los primeros indicadores de los efectos del cambio climático por sus características poblacionales y de crecimiento. La roya marrón ( Puccinia melanocephala) es una enfermedad de caña de azúcar ampliamente distribuida a nivel mundial. El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar la distribución espacio-temporal de la presencia de la roya marrón de la caña de azúcar en las principales áreas productoras (Tucumán, Salta y Jujuy) de Argentina, como consecuencia del cambio climático. Para ello, se utilizaron dos escenarios climáticos futuros proyectados (A2 y B1) a partir de la base de datos geoespaciales de variables climáticas que provee el IPCC. A2 es un escenario pesimista, mientras que B1 es un escenario más optimista. Los mapas de distribución de condiciones favorables para la enfermedad fueron construidos con una resolución de 0,5º x 0,5º de latitud y longitud. Las condiciones favorables para la infección del patógeno fueron establecidas en base a rangos de temperatura promedio mensual (de 16 a 30°C) y de duración del período de mojado foliar (> 4h/días). Las condiciones de favorabilidad climática para las ocurrencias de la enfermedad se desarrollaron mediante reglas utilizando criterios de lógica matemática de SIG, a partir de la comparación de coincidencia entre un mapa de distribución de condiciones favorables a la enfermedad (construido para el período de referencia 1961- 1990) con la incidencia real de la enfermedad reportada por fitopatólogos de la caña de azúcar. Fueron analizados tres períodos (2011-2040, 2041-2070 y 2071-2100), escenarios A2 y B1. El procesamiento de la información se realizó con el SIG. En el período de referencia las condiciones más favorables ocurrieron en los meses de marzo, abril y mayo. En los escenarios futuros evaluados, en el A2, las condiciones más favorables para la infección deP. melanocephala ocurrió en los meses de abril y mayo para 2011-2040 y en mayo para 2071-2100. Para el escenario B1, se demostró la mayor predisposición en los meses de abril y mayo en ambos períodos. Esta aproximación determinará un leve corrimiento de las condiciones favorables para la infección del patógeno, como consecuencia del incremento de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero, escapando así al periodo de mayor susceptibilidad del cultivo, dado entre febrero y marzo.

Risk analysis of climate change on the spatial distribution of sugarcane orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) is a strategic study for plant protection to minimize future damages. The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential risk of the occurrence of orange rust in Argentina and Brazil under the climate change scenarios. A mapping methodology integrated the data of climate projections and the phytosanitary problem supported by Geographic Information System (GIS). Normal climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. The conditions of climatic favorability for the occurrence of the disease were established by means mathematical logic criteria of GIS, based on knowledge of the authors, who incorporated the implicit effects of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host, and predisposing environmental characteristics. The favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust in the main sugarcane producing regions of Argentina and Brazil varied over the months considered of the cultivation cycle. For Argentina, the future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in favorability for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust from December to February and an increase in April. In Brazil, the climatic favorability decreased from December to March and increased in May.