Key message: Climate envelope analysis of nine tree species shows that Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies H. Karst could lose 58% and 40% of their current distribution range. Quercus pubescens Willd and Quercus cerris L. may win areas equal with 47% and 43% of their current ranges. The ratio of poorly predictable areas increases by 105% in southern and south-eastern Europe. Context: Climate change requires adaptive forest management implementations. To achieve climate neutrality, we have to maintain and expand forest areas. Impact assessments have great importance. Aims: The study estimates the potential climate envelopes of nine European tree species for a past period (1961–1990) and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on the current species distribution. Methods: Climate envelopes were estimated simultaneously using the random forest method. Multi-resolution segmentation was used to determine the climatic characteristics of each species and their combinations. Models were limited to the geographical area within which the climatic conditions correspond to the climatic range of the training areas. Results: Results showed remarkable changes in the extent of geographic areas of all the investigated species’ climate envelopes. Many of the tree species of Central Europe could lose significant portions of their distribution range. Adhering to the shift in climate, these tree species shift further north as well as towards higher altitudes. Conclusion: European forests face remarkable changes, and the results support climate envelope modelling as an important tool that provides guidelines for climate adaptation to identify threatened areas or to select source and destination areas for reproductive material.

This paper analyses the recent recurring dieback and growth decline of Black pine (P. nigra Arn. var austriaca) in the Keszthely mountains of south-west Hungary, and their relations to water deficits due to droughts. These relations were studied in five stands with low soil water storage capacity for the period 1981–2016. The vitality was assessed using 60 tree-ring samples and changes in remotely sensed vegetation activity indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized difference infrared index (NDII). Water deficit was estimated by using meteorological drought indices such the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the forestry aridity index (FAI), as well as the relative extractable water (REW), calculated by the Brook90 hydrological model. Results revealed a strong dependency of annual tree ring width on the amount of water deficit as measured by all the above estimators, with the highest correlation shown by the summer REW. Droughts also showed a long-term superimposed effect on tree growth. NDII seemed to be more sensitive to drought conditions than NDVI. The robust dependency of tree growth on the summer water availability combined with the projected increasing aridity might lead to decreasing growth of Black pine in Hungary towards the end of the century. We thus argue that the suggestion by several papers that Black pine can be a possible substitute species in the Alpine and Mediterranean region in the future should be revisited.

Population fluctuations of the well-known oak defoliator, the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea L.), were studied using light trap data and basic meteorological parameters (monthly average temperatures, and precipitation) at three locations in Western Hungary over a period of 15 years (1988-2012). The fluctuations in the numbers caught by the three traps were strongly synchronized. One possible explanation for this synchrony may be similar weather at the three trapping locations. Cyclic Reverse Moving Interval Techniques (CReMIT) were used to define the period of time in a year that most strongly influences the catches. For this period, we defined a species specific aridity index for Thaumetopoea processionea (THAU-index). This index explains 54.8-68.9% of the variation in the yearly catches, which indicates that aridity, particularly in the May-July period was the major determinant of population fluctuations. Our results predict an increasing future risk of Oak Processionary Moth (OPM) outbreaks and further spread if the frequency of severe spring/summer droughts increases with global warming.

The various climate scenarios consistently predict warming and drying of forests in Hungary. Soils play a significant role in the long-term sequestration of atmospheric CO₂, while in other cases they can also become net carbon emitters. Therefore, it is important to know what can be expected regarding future changes in the carbon storage capacity of soils in forests. We used precipitation gradient studies to solve this problem, using a type of “space–time” substitution. In this research, we primarily examined the quality parameters of soil organic matter (SOM) to investigate how climate change transforms the ratio of the main SOM compound groups in soils. For our studies, we applied elemental and ¹³C and ¹⁵N isotopic ratio analysis, NMR analysis, FT-IR spectra analysis, thermogravimetric and differential thermal analyses to measure SOM chemistry in samples from different oak forests with contrasting mean annual precipitation from Central Europe. Our results showed that soil organic carbon (SOC) was lower in soils of humid forests due to the enhanced decomposition processes and the leaching of Ca, which stabilizes SOM; however, in particular, the amount of easily degradable SOM compounds (e.g., thermolabile SOM, O-alkyl carbon, carboxylic and carbonyl carbon) decreased. In dry forest soils, the amount of recalcitrant SOM (e.g., thermostable SOM, alkyl carbon, aromatic and phenolic carbon and organo–mineral complexes stabilized by Ca increased, but the amount of easily degradable SOM increased further. The main conclusion of our study is that SOC can increase in forests that become drier, compensating somewhat for the decrease in forest plant biomass.