Accurate estimation of the distribution of POC in the sea surface is an important issue in understanding the carbon cycle at the basin scale in the ocean. This study explores the best machine learning approach to determine the distribution of POC in the ocean surface layer based on data obtained using satellite remote sensing. In order to estimate and verify the accuracy of this method, it is necessary to obtain a large amount of POC data from field observations, so this study was conducted in the Mediterranean Sea, where such data have been obtained and published. The research initially utilizes the Geographic Detector (GD) method to identify spatial correlations between POC and 47 environmental factors in the region. Four machine learning models of a Bayesian optimized random forest (BRF), a backpropagation neural network, adaptive boosting, and extreme gradient boosting were utilized to construct POC assessment models. Model validation yielded that the BRF exhibited superior performance in estimating sea-surface POC. To build a more accurate tuneRanger random forest (TRRF) model, we introduced the tuneRanger R package for further optimization, resulting in an R² of 0.868, a mean squared error of 1.119 (mg/m³)², and a mean absolute error of 1.041 mg/m³. It was employed to estimate the surface POC concentrations in the Mediterranean for May and June 2017. Spatial analysis revealed higher concentrations in the west and north and lower concentrations in the east and south, with higher levels near the coast and lower levels far from the coast. Additionally, we deliberated on the impact of human activities on the surface POC in the Mediterranean. This research contributes a high-precision method for satellite retrieval of surface POC concentrations in the Mediterranean, thereby enriching the understanding of POC dynamics in this area.

Particulate organic carbon (POC) is a pivotal component within the marine carbon cycle, actively involved in diverse biogeochemical processes. This study focuses on Mediterranean as the research region, selecting the most influential factors from 47 potential ones influencing surface POC. Using geographic detector for factor identification, ten primary influencers were identified. Preliminarily optimized random forest (BRF), backpropagation neural network, adaptive boosting, and extreme gradient boosting were utilized to construct POC assessment models. Notably BRF exhibited superior performance in estimating the sea surface POC. Further optimization of RF using the tuneRanger R package resulted in R² of 0.868, mean squared error of 1.119 (mg/m³) ², and mean absolute error of 1.041 (mg/m³). Surface POC concentrations in the Mediterranean for May and June 2017 were estimated. Spatial distribution analysis unveiled higher concentrations in the west, lower in the east, higher in the north, lower in the south, with higher levels near the coast and lower far from the coast. Additionally, the study deliberated on the impact of human activities on surface POC in the Mediterranean. This research contributes a high-precision method for satellite retrieval of surface POC concentrations in the Mediterranean, thereby enriching the understanding of POC dynamics in the area.