In response to a growing demand for subnational and spatially explicit data on China’s future population, this study estimates China’s provincial population from 2010 to 2100 by age (0–100+), sex (male and female) and educational levels (illiterate, primary school, junior-high school, senior-high school, college, bachelor’s, and master’s and above) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The provincial projection takes into account fertility promoting policies and population ceiling restrictions of megacities that have been implemented in China in recent years to reduce systematic biases in current studies. The predicted provincial population is allocated to spatially explicit population grids for each year at 30 arc-seconds resolution based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) urban grids and historical population grids. The provincial projection data were validated using population data in 2017 from China’s Provincial Statistical Yearbook, and the accuracy of the population grids in 2015 was evaluated. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs in climate policy research with requirements for precise administrative or spatial population data in China.

Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH₄ and N₂O emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.

The global push for carbon neutrality highlights the need for rigorous assessments of whether national efforts align with stated targets. However, existing evaluations often prioritize commitments over tangible progress, lacking comprehensive and transparent metrics. To bridge this gap, we develop a multidimensional indicator system that evaluates targets, policies, actions, and effectiveness across key areas, including policy implementation, technology deployment, financial investment, and international cooperation. While 151 countries have pledged carbon neutrality—19 of which are developing nations that made commitments in 2024—implementation remains uneven. Only 72 countries have established complete policy frameworks, and advanced low-carbon technologies are concentrated in a handful of nations. Current trends indicate that global renewable energy capacity will reach just 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030, falling short of the tripling target. Moreover, the global median action score in 2024 stands at only 25—far below the target of 65—highlighting the urgency for stronger efforts. Our findings reveal a significant gap between ambition and action, with renewable energy deployment lagging behind expectations. To accelerate progress, enhanced global cooperation, increased investment, and fewer barriers to technology diffusion are crucial. This study underscores the need for more implementation-focused tracking to ensure carbon neutrality commitments translate into measurable outcomes.