The Tianshan Mountains, the largest arid mountain range in Central Asia, feature diverse terrains and significant landscape heterogeneity. The grasslands within the Xinjiang Tianshan region are particularly sensitive to climate change and human activities. However, until recently, the patterns and mechanisms underlying grassland changes in this region have been unclear. In this study, we analyzed spatial and temporal changes in grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 2001 to 2020, analyzed spatial and temporal changes in grassland, and predicted future trends using Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) FVC data, trend analysis, and the Hurst index method. We also explored the driving mechanisms behind these changes through the structural equation model (SEM). The results showed that from 2001 to 2020, the grassland FVC in the Tianshan region of Xinjiang was higher in the central and western regions and lower in the northern and southern regions, showing an overall fluctuating growth trend, with a change in the growth rate of 0. 0017/a (p < 0.05), and that this change was spatially heterogeneous, with the sum of significant improvement (20.6%) and slight improvement (29.9%) being much larger than the sum of significant degradation (0.6%) and slight degradation (9.5%). However, the Hurst index (H = 0.47) suggests that this trend may not continue, and there is a risk of degradation. Our study uncovers the complex interactions between the Tianshan barrier effect and grassland ecosystems, highlighting regional differences in driving mechanisms. Although the impacts of climatic conditions in grasslands vary over time in different regions, the topography and its resulting hydrothermal conditions are still dominant, and the extent of the impact is susceptible to fluctuations of varying degrees due to extreme climatic events. Additionally, the number of livestock changes significantly affects the grasslands on the southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, while the effects of nighttime light are minimal. By focusing on the topographical barrier effect, this study enhances our understanding of grassland vegetation dynamics in the Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, contributing to improved ecosystem management strategies under climate change.

Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle balance. Xinjiang is located in an arid and ecologically fragile region in northwest China, but the current understanding of vegetation dynamics in the region is still limited. This study aims to analyze Xinjiang’s NPP spatial and temporal trends, using random forest regression to quantify the extent to which climate change and human activities affect vegetation productivity. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenario data help assess vegetation restoration potential and future risks. Our findings indicate that (1) Xinjiang’s NPP exhibits a significant increasing trend from 2001 to 2020, with three-quarters of the region experiencing an increase, 2.64% of the area showing significant decrease (p < 0.05), and the Ili River Basin showing a nonsignificant decreasing trend; (2) precipitation and radiation are major drivers of NPP variations, with contribution ratios of 35.13% and 30.17%, respectively; (3) noteworthy restoration potential exists on the Tian Shan northern slope and the Irtysh River Basin, where average restoration potentials surpass 80% relative to 2020, while the Ili River Basin has the highest future risk. This study explores the factors influencing the current vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang, aiming to provide references for vegetation restoration and future risk mitigation, thereby promoting sustainable ecological development in Xinjiang.